1. Oakland
JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Lane Kiffin wants a strong-armed quarterback to create a strike-first vertical passing game. That shouldn't be a hard sell to Mr. Davis, even though he hasn't ever selected a QB higher than the 15th pick.
2. Detroit
Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
I expect the Lions to trade down once, maybe even twice. Adams will team with free agent Dewayne White to give the Lions the pass rush they sorely lacked last season.
3. Cleveland
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
There's the two-back trend, of course, but there's also the declining abilities of Jamal Lewis. Of the 53 backs who had at least 75 carries, Lewis was ranked 40th in DPAR and 39th in DVOA. And that was behind a decent Ravens offensive line. There are only a few elite backs in the NFL, and Peterson is the only back in this draft who has consistently shown that kind of potential.
4. Tampa Bay
Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
The Bucs will probably have to move up one or two picks to secure Johnson. With Joey Galloway getting up there in age, and Michael Clayton looking like a one-year wonder, the Bucs will do what it takes to get their franchise receiver.
5. Arizona
Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
The Arizona offense is ready to roll, but they need improvement along the line to keep Matt Leinart upright and blast some holes for Edgerrin James.
6. Washington
Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Anderson should provide the strong-side pass rush the Skins just did not get enough of last season. His pro day was not as impressive as people hoped for, but look at him on film and he compares well enough to last year's number one overall pick by the Texans, Mario Williams.
7. Minnesota
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
Ideally a second-round draft pick deserves at least two seasons to show what he can do. But Tarvaris Jackson was a reach last year, and Brady Quinn is too well suited for Brad Childress's offense to pass up.
8. Atlanta (from Houston)
LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Landry is a smart player with good character, just the way GM Rich McKay likes them. Lawyer Milloy's skills made like Elvis and left the building last year. Ok, maybe he wasn't that bad, but he was far from being the impact player he once was. The starting free safety is Chris Crocker. Landry can play either safety position; unfortunately, he can't play both at the same time.
9. Miami
Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
Arguably it's the Dolphins that could use Brady Quinn more than any other team. Almost as big a problem, though, is left tackle. L.J. Shelton was awful at that position, but late last season he showed he has a future at guard. There's always concerns about starting a rookie at LT, but new coach Cam Cameron watched up-close last year as Chargers second-round pick Marcus McNeil played like an All-Pro.
10. Houston (from Atlanta)
Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
11. San Francisco
Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
A lot of possibilities here to help the 49ers finally turn the corner with the 3-4 defense Mike Nolan has (tried to) install. But, in the end, Carriker's experience as a strong side DE in a two-gap scheme makes him their choice.
12. Buffalo
Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
This has become a popular mock pick in recent weeks, so I'm going to shamelessly point out that I've had him rated this high and getting drafted in this spot all along, based on game review, and a good guess that the Bills were in fact going to part ways with their verteran LBs. Take that, Mel! (Note: unlike many online draftniks, I'm a Mel Kiper fan; I respect what he has been able to do both for himself and the NFL draft in general.)
13. St. Louis
Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
14. Carolina
Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio St.
15. Pittsburgh
Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida
The Steelers will stick with the 3-4 defense, but they saw their adjusted sack rate drop from third in the league in 2005 to fifteenth last season. Moss should be able to contribute right away as an outside linebacker. And if the team changes to a 4-3 in a few years, he has the frame to add some bulk and be an effective three-down defensive end.
16. Green Bay
Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
17. Jacksonville
Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
The Jags could really use a premium pass rusher, but with Adams, Anderson, and Moss off the board, the team will have to fill a different need. With Deon Grant gone via free angency and the recently-arrested Gerald Sensabaugh better suited to play strong safety, Nelson will be given every opportunity to start right away.
18. Cincinnati
Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St.
19. Tennessee
Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
20. New York Giants
Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
21. Denver
Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
22. Dallas
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
The Cowboys have all of their starting positions more-or-less locked up. If they can't trade down, their choice here will probably be between cornerback Darrelle Revis, guard Ben Grubbs, and Jarrett. Owner Jerry Jones has struck gold before with a top skill-position performer whose draft stock dropped after he posted subpar 40 times.
23. Kansas City
Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
24. New England (from Seattle)
David Harris, ILB, Michigan
Sorry, I don't point out my mistakes - just what I get right. Most draftniks finally caught up to where I had David Harris ranked back at college season's end. Harris is a player, and goddammit if the Patriot's don't collect players like a dark velvet jacket collects cat hair in springtime.
25. New York Jets
Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
Ross's skill set is well suited for Eric Mangini's defense, since he is at his best when facing the quaterback. Ross will also be an asset supporting against the run. That might not seem so important in a cornerback, but the Jets were last in the league in rush defense DVOA, so they need the help wherever they can get it.
26. Philadelphia
Jon Beason, LB, Miami
The Eagles are clearly not happy with what they have at linebacker. Trading for Takeo Spikes was a good move, but he's an injury risk, and not a long-term solution.
27. New Orleans
Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
28. New England
Michael Griffin, S, Texas
Griffin is a versatile safety who could replace Rodney Harrison down the road.
29. Baltimore
Arron Sears, OG, Tennessee
30. San Diego
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
31. Chicago
Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
32. Indianapolis
Steve Smith, WR, USC
Yes, the Colts need to add a linebacker (or two), a defensive tackle, and some depth in the secondary. But has anyone noticed they have virtually nobody behind Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne? (UPDATE: People have started noticing since I first posted this.) Harrison turns 35 in August, and he certainly looked worn down by year's end (I think: it's hard to tell since he played pretty much the way he typically plays in the post-season.) Tony Dungy's Tampa-2 defense can be run effectively with small linebackers, "slow" cornerbacks, and undersized linemen: you know, the kind of guys that don't get drafted in the first round.
Friday, April 27, 2007
2007 Positional Rankings
OFFENSE
Quarterback Round
1. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame 1
2. JaMarcus Russell, LSU 1
3. Trent Edwards, Stanford 2
4. Drew Stanton, Michigan St. 3
5. John Beck, BYU 4
6. Troy Smith, Ohio St. 5
7. Jared Zabransky, Boise St. 6
8. Josh Swogger, Montana 7
9. Kevin Kolb, Houston 7
10. Jordan Palmer, Texas-El Paso 7
Running Back Round
1. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma 1
2. Brian Leonard, Rutgers 2
3. Darius Walker, Notre Dame 2
4. DeShawn Wynn, Florida 3
5. Marshawn Lynch, California 3
6. Kenny Irons, Auburn 4
7. Michael Bush, Louisville 4
8. Lorenzo Booker, Florida St. 5
9. Justise Hairston, Central Connecticut St. 6
10. Antonio Pittman, Ohio St. 6
Fullback Round
1. Le'Ron McClain, Alabama 4
2. Jesse Allen, Virginia Tech 5
3. Cory Anderson, Tennessee 6
4. Jason Snelling, Virginia 6
5. Deon Anderson, Connecticut 7
Wide Receiver Round
1. Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech 1
2. Dwayne Jarrett, USC 1
3. Dwayne Bowe, LSU 1
4. Sidney Rice, South Carolina 1
5. Robert Meacham, Tennessee 2
6. Steve Smith, USC 2
7. Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio St. 3
8. Aundrae Allison, East Carolina 3
9. Craig Davis, LSU 3
10. Dallas Baker, Florida 4
Tight End Round
1. Ben Patrick, Delaware 2
2. Greg Olsen, Miami 2
3. Zach Miller, Arizona St. 3
4. Scott Chandler, Iowa 3
5. Matt Spaeth, Minnesota 4
6. Martrez Milner, Georgia 5
7. Michael Allan, Whitworth 6
8. Joe Newton, Oregon State 7
9. Clark Harris, Rutgers 7
10. Tyler Ecker, Michigan U
Offensive Tackle Round
1. Joe Thomas, Wisconsin 1
2. Levi Brown, Penn St. 1
3. Joe Staley, Central Michigan 2
4. Tony Ugoh, Arkansas 2
5. James Marten, Boston College 3
6. Mike Otto, Purdue 4
7. Jermon Bushrod, Towson St. 4
8. Ryan Harris, Notre Dame 5
9. Doug Free, Northern Illinois 6
10. Eric Graham, East Carolina 7
Offensive Guard Round
1. Ben Grubbs, Auburn 1
2. Josh Beekman, Boston College 2
3. Justin Blalock, Texas 2
4. Arron Sears, Tennessee 2
5. Manuel Ramirez, Texas Tech 3
6. Andy Alleman, Akron 3
7. Allen Barbre, Missouri Southern 4
8. Marshal Yanda, Iowa 4
9. Mansfield Wrotto, Georgia Tech 6
10. Tim Duckworth, Auburn 7
Center Round
1. Ryan Kalil, USC 2
2. Samson Satele, Hawaii 2
3. Dan Mozes, West Virginia 4
4. Leroy Harris, North Carolina St. 5
5. Dustin Fry, Clemson 5
6. Scott Stephenson, Iowa St. 6
DEFENSE
Defensive End Round
1. Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas 1
2. Gaines Adams, Clemson 1
3. Adam Carriker, Nebraska 1
4. Jarvis Moss, Florida 1
5. Anthony Spencer, Purdue 2
6. Tim Crowder, Texas 2
7. Charles Johnson, Georgia 3
8. Ray McDonald, Florida 3
9. Dan Bazuin, Central Michigan 3
10. LaMarr Woodley, Michigan 4
Defensive Tackle Round
1. Amobi Okoye, Louisville 1
2. Alan Branch, Michigan 1
3. Turk McBride, Tennessee 2
4. Justin Harrell, Tennessee 2
5. Marcus Thomas, Florida 2
6. Brandon Mebane, California 4
7. Keith Jackson, Arkansas 5
8. Ryan McBean, Oklahoma St. 5
9. Antonio Johnson, Mississippi St. 6
10. Jeremy Clark, Alabama 7
Outside Linebacker Round
1. Lawrence Timmons, Florida St. 1
2. Paul Posluszny, Penn St. 2
3. Tim Shaw, Penn St. 3
4. Jon Beason, Miami 3
5. Quincy Black, New Mexico 4
6. Justin Durant, Hampton 4
7. Antwan Barnes, Florida International 5
8. Earl Everett, Florida 6
9. Rory Johnson, Mississippi 7
10. Juwan Simpson, Alabama 7
Inside Linebacker Round
1. Patrick Willis, Mississippi 1
2. David Harris, Michigan 1
3. Anthony Waters, Clemson 3
4. H.B. Blades, Pittsburgh 4
5. Brandon Siler, Florida 5
6. Stewart Bradley, Nebraska 6
7. Zak DeOssie, Brown 6
8. Buster Davis, Florida St. 7
9. Nate Harris, Louisville 7
10. Dedrick Harrington, Missouri 7
Cornerback Round
1. Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh 1
2. Leon Hall, Michigan 1
3. Jonathan Wade, Tennessee 2
4. Eric Wright, UNLV 2
5. Chris Houston, Arkansas 2
6. Courtney Brown, Cal Poly 3
7. Aaron Ross, Texas 3
8. Marcus McCauley, Fresno St. 3
9. David Irons, Auburn 4
10. Fred Bennett, South Carolina 4
Safety Round
1. LaRon Landry, LSU 1
2. Brandon Meriweather, Miami 1
3. Michael Griffin, Texas 1
4. Reggie Nelson, Florida 2
5. Tanard Jackson, Syracuse 2
6. Eric Weddle, Utah 3
7. John Wendling, Wyoming 4
8. Sabby Piscitelli, Oregon St. 5
9. Aaron Rouse, Virginia Tech 6
10. Josh Gattis, Wake Forest 6
Thursday, April 26, 2007
The First 100
Taking a guess at who will be the first 100 prospects drafted on Saturday . . .
1. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
2. Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
3. JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
4. Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
5. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6. Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
7. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
8. LaRon Landry, S, LSU
9. Levi Brown, Penn St.
10. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
11. Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
12. Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
13. Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
14. Robert Meacham, WR, Tennessee
15. Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
16. Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
17. Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
18. Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
19. Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
20. Jon Beason, OLB, Miami
21. Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue
22. Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
23. Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
24. Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
25. Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
26. Michael Griffin, S, Texas
27. Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
28. David Harris, ILB, Michigan
29. Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio St.
30. Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
31. Justin Blalock, OG, Texas
32. Steve Smith, WR, USC
33. Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
34. Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
35. Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
36. Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
37. Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
38. Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
39. Ray McDonald, DE, Florida
40. Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida St.
41. LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan
42. Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
43. Arron Sears, OG, Tennessee
44. Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
45. Ryan Kalil, C, USC
46. Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn St.
47. Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
48. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
49. Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan St.
50. Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston
51. Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee
52. Tanard Jackson, DB, Syracuse
53. Ikaika Alama-Francis, DE, Hawaii
54. Craig Davis, WR, LSU
55. Brian Leonard, RB, Rutgers
56. Brandon Mebane, DT, California
57. Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno St.
58. Eric Weddle, S, Utah
59. Justin Durant, LB, Hampton
60. Zach Miller, TE, Arizona St.
61. Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio St.
62. Tank Tyler, DT, North Carolina St.
63. Fred Bennett, CB, South Carolina
64. Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina
65. Josh Beekman, C/G, Boston College
66. Buster Davis, ILB, Florida St.
67. Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
68. Turk McBride, DT, Tennessee
69. Andy Alleman, OG, Akron
70. Jason Hill, Washington St.
71. Dan Bazuin, DE, Central Michigan
72. Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida
73. Stewart Bradley, LB, Nebraska
74. Quincy Black, LB, New Mexico
75. Brandon Siler, ILB, Florida
76. David Irons, CB, Auburn
77. Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
78. Samson Satele, C/G, Hawaii
79. Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware
80. Chris Henry, RB, Arizona
81. Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
82. Tony Hunt, RB, Penn St.
83. Tim Shaw, LB, Penn St.
84. Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame
85. Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio St.
86. Allen Barbre, OG, Missouri Southern
87. Anthony Waters, ILB, Clemson
88. Zak DeOssie, LB, Brown
89. Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland
90. Brian Robison, DE, Texas
91. John Beck, QB, BYU
92. Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska
93. James Marten, OT, Boston College
94. Lorenzo Booker , RB, Florida St.
95. Usama Young, CB, Kent St.
96. Ryan McBean, DT, Oklahoma St.
97. Antwan Barnes, LB, Florida International
98. Courtney Brown, CB, Cal Poly
99. John Wendling, S, Wyoming
100. Jermon Bushrod, OT, Towson St.
1. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
2. Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
3. JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
4. Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
5. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6. Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
7. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
8. LaRon Landry, S, LSU
9. Levi Brown, Penn St.
10. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
11. Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
12. Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
13. Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
14. Robert Meacham, WR, Tennessee
15. Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
16. Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
17. Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
18. Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
19. Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
20. Jon Beason, OLB, Miami
21. Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue
22. Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
23. Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
24. Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
25. Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
26. Michael Griffin, S, Texas
27. Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
28. David Harris, ILB, Michigan
29. Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio St.
30. Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
31. Justin Blalock, OG, Texas
32. Steve Smith, WR, USC
33. Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
34. Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
35. Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
36. Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
37. Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
38. Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
39. Ray McDonald, DE, Florida
40. Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida St.
41. LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan
42. Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
43. Arron Sears, OG, Tennessee
44. Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
45. Ryan Kalil, C, USC
46. Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn St.
47. Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
48. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
49. Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan St.
50. Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston
51. Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee
52. Tanard Jackson, DB, Syracuse
53. Ikaika Alama-Francis, DE, Hawaii
54. Craig Davis, WR, LSU
55. Brian Leonard, RB, Rutgers
56. Brandon Mebane, DT, California
57. Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno St.
58. Eric Weddle, S, Utah
59. Justin Durant, LB, Hampton
60. Zach Miller, TE, Arizona St.
61. Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio St.
62. Tank Tyler, DT, North Carolina St.
63. Fred Bennett, CB, South Carolina
64. Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina
65. Josh Beekman, C/G, Boston College
66. Buster Davis, ILB, Florida St.
67. Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
68. Turk McBride, DT, Tennessee
69. Andy Alleman, OG, Akron
70. Jason Hill, Washington St.
71. Dan Bazuin, DE, Central Michigan
72. Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida
73. Stewart Bradley, LB, Nebraska
74. Quincy Black, LB, New Mexico
75. Brandon Siler, ILB, Florida
76. David Irons, CB, Auburn
77. Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
78. Samson Satele, C/G, Hawaii
79. Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware
80. Chris Henry, RB, Arizona
81. Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
82. Tony Hunt, RB, Penn St.
83. Tim Shaw, LB, Penn St.
84. Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame
85. Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio St.
86. Allen Barbre, OG, Missouri Southern
87. Anthony Waters, ILB, Clemson
88. Zak DeOssie, LB, Brown
89. Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland
90. Brian Robison, DE, Texas
91. John Beck, QB, BYU
92. Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska
93. James Marten, OT, Boston College
94. Lorenzo Booker , RB, Florida St.
95. Usama Young, CB, Kent St.
96. Ryan McBean, DT, Oklahoma St.
97. Antwan Barnes, LB, Florida International
98. Courtney Brown, CB, Cal Poly
99. John Wendling, S, Wyoming
100. Jermon Bushrod, OT, Towson St.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
2007 Positional Rankings
Here are the final position rankings. The round is not a projection of when I think the player will be taken, but rather an estimation of that player's value. It doesn't mean that if I were a GM I'd be selecting Darius Walker in the second round or DeShawn Wynn in the third because it's obvious the league doesn't have that high of an opinion of them and they'll still be on the board well into the second day. It does mean I think they'd be a steal in the sixth or seventh rounds.
OFFENSE
DEFENSE
OFFENSE
Quarterback Round
1. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame 1
2. JaMarcus Russell, LSU 1
3. Trent Edwards, Stanford 2
4. Drew Stanton, Michigan St. 3
5. John Beck, BYU 4
6. Troy Smith, Ohio St. 5
7. Jared Zabransky, Boise St. 6
8. Josh Swogger, Montana 7
9. Kevin Kolb, Houston 7
10. Jordan Palmer, Texas-El Paso 7
Running Back Round
1. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma 1
2. Brian Leonard, Rutgers 2
3. Darius Walker, Notre Dame 2
4. DeShawn Wynn, Florida 3
5. Marshawn Lynch, California 3
6. Kenny Irons, Auburn 4
7. Michael Bush, Louisville 4
8. Lorenzo Booker, Florida St. 5
9. Justise Hairston, Central Connecticut St. 6
10. Antonio Pittman, Ohio St. 6
Fullback Round
1. Le'Ron McClain, Alabama 4
2. Jesse Allen, Virginia Tech 5
3. Cory Anderson, Tennessee 6
4. Jason Snelling, Virginia 6
5. Deon Anderson, Connecticut 7
Wide Receiver Round
1. Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech 1
2. Dwayne Jarrett, USC 1
3. Dwayne Bowe, LSU 1
4. Sidney Rice, South Carolina 1
5. Robert Meacham, Tennessee 2
6. Steve Smith, USC 2
7. Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio St. 3
8. Aundrae Allison, East Carolina 3
9. Craig Davis, LSU 3
10. Dallas Baker, Florida 4
Tight End Round
1. Ben Patrick, Delaware 2
2. Greg Olsen, Miami 2
3. Zach Miller, Arizona St. 3
4. Scott Chandler, Iowa 3
5. Matt Spaeth, Minnesota 4
6. Martrez Milner, Georgia 5
7. Michael Allan, Whitworth 6
8. Joe Newton, Oregon State 7
9. Clark Harris, Rutgers 7
10. Tyler Ecker, Michigan U
Offensive Tackle Round
1. Joe Thomas, Wisconsin 1
2. Levi Brown, Penn St. 1
3. Joe Staley, Central Michigan 2
4. Tony Ugoh, Arkansas 2
5. James Marten, Boston College 3
6. Mike Otto, Purdue 4
7. Jermon Bushrod, Towson St. 4
8. Ryan Harris, Notre Dame 5
9. Doug Free, Northern Illinois 6
10. Eric Graham, East Carolina 7
Offensive Guard Round
1. Ben Grubbs, Auburn 1
2. Josh Beekman, Boston College 2
3. Justin Blalock, Texas 2
4. Arron Sears, Tennessee 2
5. Manuel Ramirez, Texas Tech 3
6. Andy Alleman, Akron 3
7. Allen Barbre, Missouri Southern 4
8. Marshal Yanda, Iowa 4
9. Mansfield Wrotto, Georgia Tech 6
10. Tim Duckworth, Auburn 7
Center Round
1. Ryan Kalil, USC 2
2. Samson Satele, Hawaii 2
3. Dan Mozes, West Virginia 4
4. Leroy Harris, North Carolina St. 5
5. Dustin Fry, Clemson 5
6. Scott Stephenson, Iowa St. 6
DEFENSE
Defensive End Round
1. Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas 1
2. Gaines Adams, Clemson 1
3. Adam Carriker, Nebraska 1
4. Jarvis Moss, Florida 1
5. Anthony Spencer, Purdue 2
6. Tim Crowder, Texas 2
7. Charles Johnson, Georgia 3
8. Ray McDonald, Florida 3
9. Dan Bazuin, Central Michigan 3
10. LaMarr Woodley, Michigan 4
Defensive Tackle Round
1. Amobi Okoye, Louisville 1
2. Alan Branch, Michigan 1
3. Turk McBride, Tennessee 2
4. Justin Harrell, Tennessee 2
5. Marcus Thomas, Florida 2
6. Brandon Mebane, California 4
7. Keith Jackson, Arkansas 5
8. Ryan McBean, Oklahoma St. 5
9. Antonio Johnson, Mississippi St. 6
10. Jeremy Clark, Alabama 7
Outside Linebacker Round
1. Lawrence Timmons, Florida St. 1
2. Paul Posluszny, Penn St. 2
3. Tim Shaw, Penn St. 3
4. Jon Beason, Miami 3
5. Quincy Black, New Mexico 4
6. Justin Durant, Hampton 4
7. Antwan Barnes, Florida International 5
8. Earl Everett, Florida 6
9. Rory Johnson, Mississippi 7
10. Juwan Simpson, Alabama 7
Inside Linebacker Round
1. Patrick Willis, Mississippi 1
2. David Harris, Michigan 1
3. Anthony Waters, Clemson 3
4. H.B. Blades, Pittsburgh 4
5. Brandon Siler, Florida 5
6. Stewart Bradley, Nebraska 6
7. Zak DeOssie, Brown 6
8. Buster Davis, Florida St. 7
9. Nate Harris, Louisville 7
10. Dedrick Harrington, Missouri 7
Cornerback Round
1. Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh 1
2. Leon Hall, Michigan 1
3. Jonathan Wade, Tennessee 2
4. Eric Wright, UNLV 2
5. Chris Houston, Arkansas 2
6. Courtney Brown, Cal Poly 3
7. Aaron Ross, Texas 3
8. Marcus McCauley, Fresno St. 3
9. David Irons, Auburn 4
10. Fred Bennett, South Carolina 4
Safety Round
1. LaRon Landry, LSU 1
2. Brandon Meriweather, Miami 1
3. Michael Griffin, Texas 1
4. Reggie Nelson, Florida 2
5. Tanard Jackson, Syracuse 2
6. Eric Weddle, Utah 3
7. John Wendling, Wyoming 4
8. Sabby Piscitelli, Oregon St. 5
9. Aaron Rouse, Virginia Tech 6
10. Josh Gattis, Wake Forest 6
Sunday, April 01, 2007
2007 NFL Mock Draft
1. Oakland
JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Lane Kiffin wants a strong-armed quarterback to create a strike-first vertical passing game. That shouldn't be a hard sell to Mr. Davis, even though he hasn't ever selected a QB higher than the 15th pick.
2. Detroit
Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
I expect the Lions to trade down once, maybe even twice. Adams will team with free agent signee Dewayne White to give the Lions the pass rush their defense was unable to provide last season.
3. Cleveland
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
There's the two-back trend, of course, but there's also the declining abilities of Jamal Lewis. Of the 53 backs who had at least 75 carries, Lewis was ranked 40th in DPAR and 39th in DVOA. And that was behind a decent Ravens offensive line. There are only a few elite backs in the NFL, and Peterson is the only one in the draft who flashes that kind of potential.
4. Tampa Bay
Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
The Bucs will probably have to move up one or two picks to secure Johnson. With Joey Galloway getting up there in age, and Michael Clayton looking like a one-year wonder, the Bucs will do what it takes to get their franchise receiver.
5. Arizona
Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
The Arizona offense is ready to roll, but they need improvement along the line to keep Matt Leinart upright and blast some holes for Edgerrin James.
6. Washington
Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Anderson should provide the strong-side pass rush the Skins just did not get enough of last season. His pro day was not as impressive as people hoped for, but look at him on film and he compares well enough to last year's number one overall pick by the Texans, Mario Williams.
7. Minnesota
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
Ideally a second-round draft pick deserves at least two seasons to show what he can do. But Tarvaris Jackson was a reach last year, and Brady Quinn is too well suited for Brad Childress's offense to pass up.
8. Atlanta (from Houston)
LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Landry is a smart player with good character, just the way GM Rich McKay likes them. Lawyer Milloy's skills made like Elvis and left the building last year. Ok, maybe he wasn't that bad, but he was far from being the impact player he once was. The starting free safety is Chris Crocker. Landry can play either safety position; unfortunately, he can't play both at the same time.
9. Miami
Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
Arguably it's the Dolphins that could use Brady Quinn more than any other team. Almost as big a problem, though, is left tackle. L.J. Shelton was awful at that position, but late last season he showed he has a future at guard. There's always concerns about starting a rookie at LT, but new coach Cam Cameron watched up-close last year as Chargers second-round pick Marcus McNeil played like an All-Pro.
10. Houston (from Atlanta)
Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio St.
The Texans still need a lot of help on defense, and some more help on the offensive line, but they can fill those needs later in the draft. Andre Johnson is one of the best receivers in the game, and Owen Daniels looks to be a good, young tight end. Add Ginn and free agent running back Ahman Green to the mix, and new QB Matt Schaub could find himself manning the helm of an explosive offense.
11. San Francisco
Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
A lot of possibilities here to help the 49ers finally turn the corner with the 3-4 defense Mike Nolan has (tried to) install. But, in the end, Carriker's experience as a strong side DE in a two-gap scheme makes him their choice.
12. Buffalo
Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
This has become a popular mock pick in recent weeks, so I'm going to shamelessly point out that I've had him rated this high and getting drafted in this spot all along, based on game review, and a good guess that the Bills were in fact going to part ways with their verteran LBs. Take that, Mel! (Note: unlike many online draftniks, I'm a Mel Kiper fan; I respect what he has been able to do both for himself and the NFL draft in general.)
13. St. Louis
Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
The Rams really only have three defensive tackles right now: Jimmy Kennedy, last year's third-rounder Claude Wroten, and La'Roi Glover, who turns 33 this summer. Okoye, meanwhile, will be turning 20. Obviously this guy has tremendous upside, and given a few years, I expect he will be a perennial All-Pro.
14. Carolina
Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
The Panthers have bigger needs at strong safety and tight end, but Keyshawn Johnson is going to be 35, and neither WR drafted in 2004, Kerry Colbert or Drew Carter, has been able to produce consistently. Give Meachem a year to adapt to the pro game and he could be part of the best receiving duo in the league.
15. Pittsburgh
Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida
The Steelers will stick with the 3-4 defense, but they saw their adjusted sack rate drop from third in the league in 2005 to fifteenth last season. Moss should be able to contribute right away as an outside linebacker. And if the team changes to a 4-3 in a few years, he has the frame to add some bulk and be an effective three-down defensive end.
16. Green Bay
Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
The Packers need to replace Ahman Green, but this year's running back prospect pool is shallow, and Marshawn Lynch seems to be at least a little overrated because of that. Bubba Franks doesn't get the job done anymore and it's time to give Farve a new weaopon on offense.
17. Jacksonville
Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
The Jags could really use a premium pass rusher, but with Adams, Anderson, and Moss off the board, the team will have to fill a different need. With Deon Grant gone via free angency and the recently-arrested Gerald Sensabaugh better suited to play strong safety, Nelson will be given every opportunity to start right away.
18. Cincinnati
Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
The Bengals need all kinds of help on their delinquent defense, so they go with the top-rated player available. Deltha O'Neal ain't what he used to be and could be traded on or before draft day. Last year's first round pick Johnathan Joseph played very well, but he has some character concerns going forward.
19. Tennessee
Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Reuniting Dwayne Jarrett with offensive coordinator Norm Chow is going to be awfully tempting, but running back is an even bigger need than receiver. LenDale White can't stay in shape, and even if the team signs Corey Dillon, that is only a temporary solution.
20. New York Giants
Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St.
Free agent Kawika Mitchell was signed to a one-year deal, suggesting he might not be more than an insurance policy. Timmons has the talent to be a top-13 pick, but unimpressive workouts and questions about his conditioning drop him down the board.
21. Denver
Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
The Broncos are another team sorely looking to add a premium pass rusher. With none available they do perhaps the next best thing for themselves and beef up their interior line. Once considered a top-10 pick, I'm not sure Branch has done anything to deserve falling this far, but it's looking more and more likely.
22. Dallas
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
The Cowboys have all of their starting positions more-or-less locked up. If they can't trade down, their choice here will probably be between cornerback Darrelle Revis, guard Ben Grubbs, and Jarrett. Owner Jerry Jones has struck gold before with a top skill-position performer whose draft stock dropped after he posted subpar 40 times.
23. Kansas City
Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Chiefs can't keep passing over their WR need every year, can they? Eddie Kennison is 34 and 2004 fourth-rounder Samie Parker looks a whole lot better if he's your third WR and not your second. The backups are Dante Hall and Rod "Teams Keep Cutting Me" Gardner.
24. New England (from Seattle)
Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
With Asante Samuel not likely to play in New England beyond next season, the Patriots draft his future replacement.
25. New York Jets
Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
Ross's skill set is well suited for Eric Mangini's defense, since he is at his best when facing the quaterback. Ross will also be an asset supporting against the run. That might not seem so important in a cornerback, but the Jets were last in the league in rush defense DVOA, so they need the help wherever they can get it.
26. Philadelphia
Jon Beason, LB, Miami
The Eagles are clearly not happy with what they have at linebacker. Trading for Takeo Spikes was a good move, but he's an injury risk, and not a long-term solution.
27. New Orleans
Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Sizzle, sizzle. Two months into the offseason and Fred Thomas is still getting burned.
28. New England
David Harris, ILB, Michigan
Sorry, I don't point out my mistakes - just what I get right. Most draftniks finally caught up to where I had David Harris ranked back at college season's end. Harris is a player, and goddammit if the Patriot's don't collect players like a dark velvet jacket collects cat hair in springtime.
29. Baltimore
Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue
Spencer may be the closest thing in the draft to Adalius Thomas, although Thomas was a sixth-round pick, and Spencer will be expected to make an impact much sooner than Thomas did.
30. San Diego
Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Receiver Eric Parker may be a tad underrated, but there's no doubt that the Chargers' starting duo of he and Vincent Jackson is a little less than dynamic. Rice has seen his stock drift downward since he declared, with many now placing him in the second round. He seems to be a true "boom or bust" prospect, and such receivers tend to rise on draft day.
31. Chicago
Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
The Bears offensive line is not at all young, and the biggest question for them come draft day is likely to be: "Guard or tackle?"
32. Indianapolis
Steve Smith, WR, USC
Yes, the Colts need to add a linebacker (or two), a defensive tackle, and some depth in the secondary. But has anyone noticed they have virtually nobody behind Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne? Harrison turns 35 in August, and he certainly looked worn down by year's end (I think: it's hard to tell since he played pretty much the way he typically plays in the post-season.) Tony Dungy's Tampa-2 defense can be run effectively with small linebackers, "slow" cornerbacks, and undersized linemen: you know, the kind of guys that don't get drafted in the first round.
JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Lane Kiffin wants a strong-armed quarterback to create a strike-first vertical passing game. That shouldn't be a hard sell to Mr. Davis, even though he hasn't ever selected a QB higher than the 15th pick.
2. Detroit
Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
I expect the Lions to trade down once, maybe even twice. Adams will team with free agent signee Dewayne White to give the Lions the pass rush their defense was unable to provide last season.
3. Cleveland
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
There's the two-back trend, of course, but there's also the declining abilities of Jamal Lewis. Of the 53 backs who had at least 75 carries, Lewis was ranked 40th in DPAR and 39th in DVOA. And that was behind a decent Ravens offensive line. There are only a few elite backs in the NFL, and Peterson is the only one in the draft who flashes that kind of potential.
4. Tampa Bay
Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
The Bucs will probably have to move up one or two picks to secure Johnson. With Joey Galloway getting up there in age, and Michael Clayton looking like a one-year wonder, the Bucs will do what it takes to get their franchise receiver.
5. Arizona
Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
The Arizona offense is ready to roll, but they need improvement along the line to keep Matt Leinart upright and blast some holes for Edgerrin James.
6. Washington
Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Anderson should provide the strong-side pass rush the Skins just did not get enough of last season. His pro day was not as impressive as people hoped for, but look at him on film and he compares well enough to last year's number one overall pick by the Texans, Mario Williams.
7. Minnesota
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
Ideally a second-round draft pick deserves at least two seasons to show what he can do. But Tarvaris Jackson was a reach last year, and Brady Quinn is too well suited for Brad Childress's offense to pass up.
8. Atlanta (from Houston)
LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Landry is a smart player with good character, just the way GM Rich McKay likes them. Lawyer Milloy's skills made like Elvis and left the building last year. Ok, maybe he wasn't that bad, but he was far from being the impact player he once was. The starting free safety is Chris Crocker. Landry can play either safety position; unfortunately, he can't play both at the same time.
9. Miami
Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
Arguably it's the Dolphins that could use Brady Quinn more than any other team. Almost as big a problem, though, is left tackle. L.J. Shelton was awful at that position, but late last season he showed he has a future at guard. There's always concerns about starting a rookie at LT, but new coach Cam Cameron watched up-close last year as Chargers second-round pick Marcus McNeil played like an All-Pro.
10. Houston (from Atlanta)
Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio St.
The Texans still need a lot of help on defense, and some more help on the offensive line, but they can fill those needs later in the draft. Andre Johnson is one of the best receivers in the game, and Owen Daniels looks to be a good, young tight end. Add Ginn and free agent running back Ahman Green to the mix, and new QB Matt Schaub could find himself manning the helm of an explosive offense.
11. San Francisco
Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
A lot of possibilities here to help the 49ers finally turn the corner with the 3-4 defense Mike Nolan has (tried to) install. But, in the end, Carriker's experience as a strong side DE in a two-gap scheme makes him their choice.
12. Buffalo
Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
This has become a popular mock pick in recent weeks, so I'm going to shamelessly point out that I've had him rated this high and getting drafted in this spot all along, based on game review, and a good guess that the Bills were in fact going to part ways with their verteran LBs. Take that, Mel! (Note: unlike many online draftniks, I'm a Mel Kiper fan; I respect what he has been able to do both for himself and the NFL draft in general.)
13. St. Louis
Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
The Rams really only have three defensive tackles right now: Jimmy Kennedy, last year's third-rounder Claude Wroten, and La'Roi Glover, who turns 33 this summer. Okoye, meanwhile, will be turning 20. Obviously this guy has tremendous upside, and given a few years, I expect he will be a perennial All-Pro.
14. Carolina
Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
The Panthers have bigger needs at strong safety and tight end, but Keyshawn Johnson is going to be 35, and neither WR drafted in 2004, Kerry Colbert or Drew Carter, has been able to produce consistently. Give Meachem a year to adapt to the pro game and he could be part of the best receiving duo in the league.
15. Pittsburgh
Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida
The Steelers will stick with the 3-4 defense, but they saw their adjusted sack rate drop from third in the league in 2005 to fifteenth last season. Moss should be able to contribute right away as an outside linebacker. And if the team changes to a 4-3 in a few years, he has the frame to add some bulk and be an effective three-down defensive end.
16. Green Bay
Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
The Packers need to replace Ahman Green, but this year's running back prospect pool is shallow, and Marshawn Lynch seems to be at least a little overrated because of that. Bubba Franks doesn't get the job done anymore and it's time to give Farve a new weaopon on offense.
17. Jacksonville
Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
The Jags could really use a premium pass rusher, but with Adams, Anderson, and Moss off the board, the team will have to fill a different need. With Deon Grant gone via free angency and the recently-arrested Gerald Sensabaugh better suited to play strong safety, Nelson will be given every opportunity to start right away.
18. Cincinnati
Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
The Bengals need all kinds of help on their delinquent defense, so they go with the top-rated player available. Deltha O'Neal ain't what he used to be and could be traded on or before draft day. Last year's first round pick Johnathan Joseph played very well, but he has some character concerns going forward.
19. Tennessee
Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Reuniting Dwayne Jarrett with offensive coordinator Norm Chow is going to be awfully tempting, but running back is an even bigger need than receiver. LenDale White can't stay in shape, and even if the team signs Corey Dillon, that is only a temporary solution.
20. New York Giants
Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St.
Free agent Kawika Mitchell was signed to a one-year deal, suggesting he might not be more than an insurance policy. Timmons has the talent to be a top-13 pick, but unimpressive workouts and questions about his conditioning drop him down the board.
21. Denver
Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
The Broncos are another team sorely looking to add a premium pass rusher. With none available they do perhaps the next best thing for themselves and beef up their interior line. Once considered a top-10 pick, I'm not sure Branch has done anything to deserve falling this far, but it's looking more and more likely.
22. Dallas
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
The Cowboys have all of their starting positions more-or-less locked up. If they can't trade down, their choice here will probably be between cornerback Darrelle Revis, guard Ben Grubbs, and Jarrett. Owner Jerry Jones has struck gold before with a top skill-position performer whose draft stock dropped after he posted subpar 40 times.
23. Kansas City
Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Chiefs can't keep passing over their WR need every year, can they? Eddie Kennison is 34 and 2004 fourth-rounder Samie Parker looks a whole lot better if he's your third WR and not your second. The backups are Dante Hall and Rod "Teams Keep Cutting Me" Gardner.
24. New England (from Seattle)
Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
With Asante Samuel not likely to play in New England beyond next season, the Patriots draft his future replacement.
25. New York Jets
Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
Ross's skill set is well suited for Eric Mangini's defense, since he is at his best when facing the quaterback. Ross will also be an asset supporting against the run. That might not seem so important in a cornerback, but the Jets were last in the league in rush defense DVOA, so they need the help wherever they can get it.
26. Philadelphia
Jon Beason, LB, Miami
The Eagles are clearly not happy with what they have at linebacker. Trading for Takeo Spikes was a good move, but he's an injury risk, and not a long-term solution.
27. New Orleans
Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Sizzle, sizzle. Two months into the offseason and Fred Thomas is still getting burned.
28. New England
David Harris, ILB, Michigan
Sorry, I don't point out my mistakes - just what I get right. Most draftniks finally caught up to where I had David Harris ranked back at college season's end. Harris is a player, and goddammit if the Patriot's don't collect players like a dark velvet jacket collects cat hair in springtime.
29. Baltimore
Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue
Spencer may be the closest thing in the draft to Adalius Thomas, although Thomas was a sixth-round pick, and Spencer will be expected to make an impact much sooner than Thomas did.
30. San Diego
Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Receiver Eric Parker may be a tad underrated, but there's no doubt that the Chargers' starting duo of he and Vincent Jackson is a little less than dynamic. Rice has seen his stock drift downward since he declared, with many now placing him in the second round. He seems to be a true "boom or bust" prospect, and such receivers tend to rise on draft day.
31. Chicago
Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
The Bears offensive line is not at all young, and the biggest question for them come draft day is likely to be: "Guard or tackle?"
32. Indianapolis
Steve Smith, WR, USC
Yes, the Colts need to add a linebacker (or two), a defensive tackle, and some depth in the secondary. But has anyone noticed they have virtually nobody behind Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne? Harrison turns 35 in August, and he certainly looked worn down by year's end (I think: it's hard to tell since he played pretty much the way he typically plays in the post-season.) Tony Dungy's Tampa-2 defense can be run effectively with small linebackers, "slow" cornerbacks, and undersized linemen: you know, the kind of guys that don't get drafted in the first round.
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