Wednesday, January 30, 2008

2008 NFL Draft Stock Watch, Part 3: Sliders

Equally apparent as the top “risers” of Senior Bowl week were the top “sliders.” Although my initial post used ten sources, the Frank Coyle article dealt only with risers, so there were only nine articles that mentioned sliders. Unfortunately for Colt Brennan he received nine mentions.

For me Brennan isn't a “stock down” guy: I already had him clear of my top ten quaterbacks. And that's in a QB class that's less than stellar. I'm actually surprised he had received mid-round grades from online draftniks and sports radio gurus, as well as anonymous scouts quoted in news articles, going into Senior Bowl week.

One of my favorite QBs of all-time, Bernie Kosar, had a funky side arm delivery, but he could get the job done with timing and vision and wiles. That rhythm in the face of pressure, that quickness in reading the field, and that seemingly innate sense of the pocket and where the play is: those are things I didn't see when I watched Brennan at Hawaii against one of the weakest schedules in the nation. He seems like a real cool dude, an amiable young man. It would be a great story if he could make it and become a star in the NFL. But I don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong.

Right behind Brennan was Andre Woodson with eight “slider” mentions. A good performance could have catapulted Woodson into the first round; instead, he must now look ahead to the combine and hope to put on a show there to assure himself a place in at least the second round. How bad did Woodson look at times in Mobile last week? I thought he was most comparable to Byron Leftwich—in Atlanta. Ouch.

Adarius Bowman and Dejuan Tribble were the only other two players who were pretty much universally panned for their Senior Bowl practices. Bowman had problems fighting the ball all week, but he also flashed the potential that had him rated by many as one of the top wide outs in the draft. He'll get a chance to redeem himself at the combine. I'm surprised Tribble didn't get more mentions given how often he seemed to get burned. One thing about Tribble, though, is that he does have a nose for the ball. He's only 5'8.5," which is about four inches short of prototypical safety height; but with 9.5" hands, a definite toughness, and Bob Sanders as precedent, maybe he can take that nose for the ball and make himself a career at safety.

And here are my top five sliders, limiting it to the players who received two or fewer mentions by the sources of my initial post.

1. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee
Ainge is going to remain one of my pet cats of the 2008 draft, but he didn't show as well as I thought he would. I still think he'll be a good pro, but he really is going to need some time to develop. I guess this makes sense, since the player he seems most comparable to is Derek Anderson. With Brennan and Woodson struggling in the eyes of scouts, Ainge missed a chance to capitalize and dramatically improve his draft stock. And while he led the South team to victory in the game's final drive, he was less than spectacular in doing so, and the drive was kept alive by a couple of awful calls by the refs (who probably had the worst day of anyone on the field last Saturday).

2. Cody Wallace, C, Texas A&M
Whenever I saw him, Wallace struggled to hold his ground. Although he reportedly got off to a good start last week, he had his worst day on Wednesday, the most important day of the week. The spot of top-rated center in the draft was up for grabs and Wallace failed to seize it.

3. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
Going into the Senior Bowl I didn't have Johnson rated nearly high as just about everyone else online, placing him as the tenth running back and not even feeling really good about that. It's true his week was cut short with a shoulder injury, but even before that he didn't really stand out—and it's easier for a speedy back to stand out at such an event than it is for a player from any other position. Given his size, durability is going to be an issue for Johnson, and so even getting dinged up last week has to be taken at least somewhat as a negative.

4. Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green
Since Bowling Green is a team I didn't get to watch at all last year, I had Lichtensteiger rated just from information gathered online. I thought he might be the second or third center in the draft. It looks like that thought was way off. Lichtensteiger had one of the roughest weeks of any lineman at the Senior Bowl. And while he wasn't a top-rated player to begin with, in a relatively week class of interior lineman he could have moved up with a solid showing.

5. Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Writing for SI.com, TFY Draft Preview's Tony Pauline was the only one of the sources used in my "stock watch" consensus that mentioned Cherilus as a slider. College Football News even mentioned a player who was “hot” and not “not.” But Cherilus looked more “not” than not “not” to me. It was basically the same way I felt watching him at Boston College this past season. His measureables are off the charts, and he has the skill set, but he just doesn't seem to put it all together. Maybe I'm a harsher critic of his play because of all his physical talent: I expect to see him dominate and he doesn't. He can shut down his guy, but he doesn't do it consistently. He's probably still a first-round draft choice, and he could be an All-Pro someday. But I don't know that I'd place that bet.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

2008 NFL Draft Stock Watch, Part 2: Low Risers

Yesterday's post listing players most often cited as risers in various articles backs up what was clear to even a casual fan stopping on the NFL Network to catch a glimpse of the Senior Bowl practices: there was a core group of players who clearly stood out above the rest.

The guys with six or more "stock up" mentions in those articles will no doubt be drafted higher than they would have before: Sedrick Ellis, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, and Lavelle Hawkins. You can say what you want about remaining true to your board as it stood in early January, but it's wrong to dismiss how a player practices, how he accepts coaching, and—this Senior Bowl's biggest cliche—how he competes. Of course, the gains are relative. Because of the higher stakes at the top of the draft, Ellis moving up five spots, from, say, the ninth overall pick to the fourth is every bit as meaningful as Flacco moving himself up a good twenty-to-thirty picks in the second round, or Forsett going from a late rounder to a probable mid rounder.

Here's my top five risers, limiting myself to the players who received two or fewer mentions in yesterday's ten sources.

1. Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
For all the hype around Leodis McKelvin and DRC, Porter may have flashed the best man-to-man cover ability. He has better ball skills than McKelvin, but probably not the better instincts for zone coverage. The big question with Porter: Does he have the physicality to play man-to-man in the pros and be an asset in run support? I think he has shown enough to warrant a late first-/early second-round pick. The Green Bay Packers would be a perfect fit.

2. Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska
I'm a little surprised that Nicks got not one mention as a player on the rise after Senior Bowl week. From some of the reports I've read NFL scouts might have had a higher grade on him than many of the online draftnik horde. Long arms, wide base, plays with a mean streak, seemed to handle the speed guys off the edge fairly well. What's not to like? FWIW, I moved him all the way up to the third tackle in my rankings. I don't expect he'll be that high on most boards, but a solid showing at the Senior Bowl must have helped his standing.

3. Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
With barely over twenty receptions in his college career, it was important for Cottam to show the scouts what he can do. At 6’7.5” he proved he can be a dangerous red zone weapon, a nice outlet in the middle of the field or in the flats, and a very good blocker. Still, the lack of college production, an inability to stretch the field, and a strong tight end draft class will likely keep Cottam on the board into the middle rounds.

4. Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
Fluellen flashed a good burst off the line and some nice moves, showing that he could slip into the backfield and bring pressure from the inside. Unfortunately, the South team's interior line left quite a bit to be desired, and he didn't take it to them on a consistent basis. If he can follow up his performance last week with a good showing at the combine, he should find himself selected by the late third round.

5. Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
OK, I was already bullish on Jones, having him ranked as my third defensive end prospect even before the Senior Bowl practices got underway. I still have him ranked third, so he hasn't risen in my book. In fact, for a while I had him in the first round of my mock drafts, but now I don't, so you might think I should have him as a slider. But I'm just trying to get my mock inline with what has a better shot of happening. Yes, he's raw, and yes, he didn't look quite as smooth as I thought he would when running guys down in the backfield. But shoot, he does a fine job getting into the backfield. Reminds me of a more athletic version of Dallas Cowboys 2006 third-round pick out of Grambling State, Jason Hatcher. As such, with a little more bulk, a little more strength, Jones could be a great fit playing end in a 3-4. He should be off the board by time the second round ends, probably sooner.

Monday, January 28, 2008

2008 NFL Draft Stock Watch

Here's a consensus from ten sources of the prospects who did the most to improve or hurt their draft status during Senior Bowl week. My tally (the number to the left of the player names below) is drawn from various "risers and sliders" type of articles, as referenced in the sources.

One of the surprising things here is Leodis McKelvin with two "falling" mentions from a couple of respectable sources. From what I saw McKelvin solidified his standing as a first-round pick; I even jumped him ahead of South Florida cornerback Mike Jenkins in my position rankings, and took him from the twenty-second pick to the tenth in my mock draft. I'm also surprised Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DRC) didn't garner more positive notice as he clearly will jump from late-second/early-third round status to late-first/early-second. Similarly, Trevor Laws showed that he's a force to be reckoned with and moved himself up from a fifth or sixth round pick to a third or fourth rounder. I hope to add more thoughts to this tomorrow night.

Stock Rising
9 - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (FC, CR, AC, TH, CFN, TP, RL, DP, CS)
7 - Chad Henne, QB, Michigan (FC, LZ, CR, AC, TP, DP, CS)
6 - Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware (LZ, CR, AC, TH, TP, DP)
6 - Justin Forsett, RB, California (FC, LZ, CR, AC, TP, DP)
6 - Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California (FC, CFN, TP, RL, DP, CS)
5 - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt (AC, TH, CFN, RL, DP)
5 - Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn (FC, AC, TH, TP, DP)
4 - Matt Forte, RB, Tulane (AC, RL, DP, CS)
4 - Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame (FC, TH, DP, CS)
4 - Dan Connor, LB, Penn State (FC, CR, AC, CFN)
4 - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St. (AC, TH, DP, CS)
3 - Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech (AC, RL, DP)
3 - Fred Davis, TE, USC (AC, RL, DP)
3 - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (FC, LZ, TH)
2 - John David Booty, QB, USC (FC, CR)
2 - Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida (FC, RL)
2 - Donnie Avery, WR, Houston (AC, RL)
2 - Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee (CR, DP)
2 - Oniel Cousins, OT, UTEP (LZ, DP)
2 - Dre Moore, DT, Maryland (RL, DP)
2 - Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M (TP, CS)
2 - Keith Rivers, LB, USC (CR, DP)
2 - Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU (FC, DP)
2 - Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana (RL, DP)
1 - Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech (FC)
1 - Rafael Little, RB, Kentucky (FC)
1 - Jacob Hester, FB, LSU (TH)
1 - Peyton Hillis, FB, Arkansas (TH)
1 - D.J Hall, WR, Alabama (FC)
1 - Dexter Jackson, WR, Appalachian St (TP)
1 - Sam Baker, OT, USC (LZ)
1 - Chad Rinehart, OT, Northern Iowa (RL)
1 - Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College (CFN)
1 - Mike Pollack, C, Arizona State (TP)
1 - Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan (FC)
1 - Wallace Gilberry, DE, Alabama (TH)
1 - Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State (RL)
1 - Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech (FC)
1 - Jordan Dizon, LB, Colorado (RL)
1 - Simeon Castille, CB, Alabama (DP)
1 - Thomas DeCoud, FS, Cal (LZ)

Stock Falling
9 - Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii (LZ, CR, AC, TH, CFN, TP, RL, DP, CS)
8 - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky (LZ, CR, AC, TH, TP, RL, DP, CS)
5 - Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State (LZ, CR, AC, TP, CS)
3 - Dejuan Tribble, CB, Boston College (LZ, CFN, RL)
2 - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (RL, DP)
2 - Terrence Wheatley, CB Colorado (CFN, TP)
1 - Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee (CR)
1 - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas (LZ)
1 - Marcus Smith, WR, New Mexico (RL)
1 - D.J Hall, WR, Alabama (TH)
1 - Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri (LZ)
1 - Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky (CS)
1 - Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College (TP)
1 - Sam Baker, OT, USC (RL)
1 - Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State (RL)
1 - Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson (RL)
1 - Oniel Cousins, OT, UTEP (RL)
1 - Cody Wallace, C, Texas A&M (LZ)
1 - Beau Bell, LB, UNLV (CR)
1 - Shawn Crable, LB, Michigan (RL)
1 - Simeon Castille, CB, Alabama (TH)

Sources
AC: Adam Caplan, Scout.com, "Scouting the All-Stars"

CFN: staff, CollegeFootballNews.com, "Who's Hot & Not - 2008 Senior Bowl Week"

CR: Chad Reuter, NFLDraftScout.com, "Senior Bowl Risers and Fallers"

CS: Chris Steuber, Scout.com, "UA Senior Bowl Risers, Fallers, Up-and-Coming"

DP: Dan Pompei, Chicago Tribune, "Scout talk: Senior Bowl winners and losers"

FC: Frank Coyle, Draft Insiders, "Rising Pro Prospects to Watch"

LZ: Lance Zierlein, The Z Report, "Senior Bowl Insiders say who is rising and falling"

RL: Russ Lande, GMjr/SportingNews, "Senior Bowl Dish: Wrap-up"

TH: Tommy Hicks, al.com, "Judgment week"

TP: Tony Pauline, TFY Draft Preview/SI.com "Senior Bowl: Final analysis"

Sunday, January 27, 2008

2008 All Free Agent Team - Defense

A look at the top unrestricted free agents available at each position. By "top," though, I don't mean the best in terms of raw ability or talent level, but in overall value, taking into consideration factors such as age and cost. Of course, it's early yet—free agency hasn't even started—and so some of these players could very well be resigned and never hit the open market. As that becomes the case, I expect I will update this "team." The offense was posted last Sunday.

DE: Jared Allen (Kansas City Chiefs)
Coming off of an All-Pro season, Allen isn't flying under anyone's radar. He has four seasons of solid production. The big reason he makes it here: he's still young, turning 26 in April. Yes, he has had some off-field issues that should temper what he gets paid at least a little bit, but he deserves to be among the league's top-paid defensive ends.

DE: Antwan Odom (Tennessee Titans)
Free agency doesn't offer a lot of solid options at defensive end this year. If you're running a 3-4, then San Francisco's Marques Douglas is a solid player, but turns 31 soon, and seemed to wear down as the 2007 season wore on. Odom benefitted from lining up next to defensive MVP Albert Haynesworth for most of the season. But at 26 he's reaching his peak years and should be a solid signing so long as a team doesn't overpay for his services.

DT: Corey Williams (Green Bay Packers)
Williams has provided good production from the inside for Green Bay the last two seasons. At 6'4" and 313 pounds, the 27-year-old Williams could also be a nice fit at defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. He should get a five-year deal and I'm sure he'll make whatever team signs him happy they did so.

DT: Tommy Kelly (Oakland Raiders)
Coming off an ACL injury, Kelly will have some question marks going into 2008. But he just turned 27 and with the right kind of contract he'll be a great addition for a team as either a 3-technique DT in a four-man line or as an end in a 3-4 scheme.

OLB: Calvin Pace (Airzona Carinals)
With fellow Cardinals free-agent linebacker Karlos Dansby likely to be franchised or signed to a long-term deal, it seems likely Pace will get a chance to test the market. Pace would be a natural piece of the puzzle for a team looking to transition to a 3-4 like the Dolphins or, if they choose to do so, the Rams.

OLB: Victor Hobson (New York Jets)
Hobson is a solid player who seems miscast as an outside linebacker in the Jets' base 3-4 defense. He should be a nice fit on the strong side for a traditional 4-3 team, or he might be better as an inside backer for a 3-4 team.

MLB: Kawika Mitchell (New York Giants)
Unless I'm overlooking somebody, this year's free agent class offers pretty much nothing for a team looking to fill a middle linebacker spot. I'm giving Mitchell the nod here as a guy still under 30 who, like Hobson, I think could be an asset on the inside in a 3-4 scheme.

CB: Nnamdi Asomugha (Oakland Raiders)
Asomugha is the best cornerback in the league. I'll be shocked if the Raiders don't franchise him, so I'm probably going to have to replace this spot sooner rather than later.

CB: Asante Samuel (New England Patriots)
Although he wouldn't have received my vote as All-Pro last season, he made the cut in 2006, and I still view him as one of the league's top-five cornerbacks. Having recently turned 27, Samuel should have a couple of years left at his peak before beginning to steadily decline as most CBs do. A five-year-deal for top-dollar should be money well-spent.

FS: Gibril Wilson (New York Giants)
The Giants' struggles in the secondary have seldom been the problem of Wilson. New York's improbable play-off run means Wilson has received a little more notice than he might otherwise have, but he should still come at a decent price and he will help shore up some secondary somewhere if the Giants don't re-sign him.

SS: Yeremiah Bell (Miami Dolphins)
Although Bell has only logged four seasons, he's already going to be 30. He's also coming off an injury. But he showed enough in 2006 that I believe he'll be a great value signing in a year when the draft and free agency have very little to offer in the way of safeties. As a strong safery Bell should be able to play another three or four seasons of quality football, making him an excellent stop-gap for a team looking to fill a hole in their starting lineup.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

2008 NFL Draft position rankings

Here are the post-Senior Bowl Week position rankings. Since I have a family and non-football related career, rating pro football prospects is limited to being a hobby (unfortunately!). That means there are a lot of players I get to see very little of during the college season, and helps explain why the Senior Bowl practices and game lead to a big shake up of my rankings. Of course, players I've seen plenty of during the year, e.g. my five top running backs this past season, seldom get bounced up or down very much, if at all. I don't expect any major changes even after the combine, but there are usually a few surprises either there or during the pro day workouts, so stay tuned.

OFFENSE
Quarterbak
1. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
2. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
3. Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
4. Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
5. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee
6. Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Andre' Woodson, QB, Kentucky
9. Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon
10. Paul Smith, QB, Tulsa

Running Back
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
3. Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
4. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
5. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
6. Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
7. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
8. Thomas Brown, RB, Georgia
9. Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
10. Justin Forsett, RB, California
11. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
12. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
13. Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma
14. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan
15. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mississippi
16. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
17. Dantrell Savage, RB, Oklahoma State
18. Chauncey Washington, RB, USC
19. Marcus Thomas, RB, UTEP
20. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
20. Anthony Alridge, RB, Houston

Fullback
1. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
2. Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
3. Peyton Hillis, FB, Arkansas
4. Jacob Hester, FB, LSU
5. Julius Crosslin, FB, Oklahoma State
6. Brandon McAnderson, RB, Kansas
7. Carl Stewart, FB, Auburn
8. Mike Cox, FB, Georgia Tech
9. Chris Brown, TE, Tennessee
10. Adam Ballard, FB, Navy

Wide Receiver
1. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
2. James Hardy, WR, Indiana
3. Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
4. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
5. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
6. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
7. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
8. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
9. Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
10. DeSean Jackson, WR, California
11. Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State
12. Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan
13. Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
14. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
15. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
16. Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
17. Early Doucet, WR, LSU
18. Dexter Jackson, WR, Appalachian State
19. Taj Smith, WR, Syracuse
20. Jason Rivers, WR, Hawaii

Tight End
1. John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
2. Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
3. Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
4. Fred Davis, TE, USC
5. Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
6. Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
7. Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
8. Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
9. Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky
10. Craig Stevens, TE, California

Offensive Tackle
1. Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
3. Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska
4. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
5. Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
6. Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
7. Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
8. John Greco, OT, Toledo
9. Oneil Cousins, OT, UTEP
10. Heath Benedict, OT, Newberry
11. Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson
12. Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
13. Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State
14. Tony Hills, OT, Texas

Offensive Guard
1. Branden Albert, G, Virginia
2. Sam Baker, OT, USC
3. Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
4. Chad Reinhart, G, Northern Iowa
5. Drew Radovich, G, USC
6. Eric Young, G, Tennessee
7. Donald Thomas, G, Connecticut
8. Robert Felton, G, Arkansas
9. Andrew Crummey, G, Maryland
10. Chris McDuffie, G, Clemson

Center
1. Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
2. John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
3. Fernando Velasco, C, Georgia
4. Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
5. Cody Wallace, C, Texas A&M

DEFENSE
Defensive End
1. Chris Long, DE, Virginia
2. Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
3. Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
4. Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
5. Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
6. Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
7. Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
8. Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
9. Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
10. Kendall Langford, DE, Hampton
11. Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
12. Darrell Robertson, DE, Georgia Tech
13. Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
14. Titus Brown, DE, Mississippi St.
15. Wallace Gilberry, DE, Alabama

Defensive Tackle
1. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
2. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
3. Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
4. Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
5. Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
6. Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
7. DeMario Pressley, DT, North Carolina State
8. Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
9. Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
10. Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
11. Letroy Guion, DT, Florida State
12. Lorenzo Williams, DT, Missouri
13. Frank Okam, DT, Texas
14. Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M
15. Josh Thompson, DT, Auburn

Outside Linebacker
1. Keith Rivers, LB, USC
2. Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
3. Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
4. Shawn Crable, LB, Michigan
5. Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland
6. Ali Highsmith, LB, LSU
7. Jordon Dizon, LB, Colorado
8. Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
9. Ezra Butler, LB, Nevada
10. Bruce Davis, DE, UCLA

Middle Linebacker
1. Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma
2. Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
3. Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
4. Jonathan Goff, LB, Vanderbilt
5. Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
6. Ben Moffitt, LB, South Florida
7. Jolonn Dunbar, LB, Boston College
8. Vince Hall, LB, Virginia Tech
9. J Leman, LB, Illinois
10. Anthony Hoke, LB, Cincinnati

Cornerback
1. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
2. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
3. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
4. Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
5. Branden Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
6. Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
7. Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
8. Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
9. Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
10. Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
11. Justin King, CB, Penn State
12. Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
13. Dwight Lowery, CB, San Jose State
14. Zach Bowman, CB, Nebraska
15. Tyvon Branch, CB, Connecticut

Safety
1. Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami
2. Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma
3. Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
4. Thomas DeCoud, FS, California
5. Marcus Griffin, FS, Texas
6. DaJuan Morgan, FS, North Carolina State
7. Jamar Adams, SS, Michigan
8. Tom Zbikowski, SS, Notre Dame
9. Jamie Silva, SS, Boston College
10. Dominique Barber, FS, Minnesota
11. Tyrell Johnson, SS, Arkansas State
12. Quintin Demps, SS, UTEP
13. Jonathan Hefney, CB, Tennessee
14. D.J. Parker, FS, Virginia Tech
15. Craig Steltz, SS, LSU

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

2008 NFL Mock Draft

1. Miami Dolphins
Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Playing for Al Groh at Virginia as well as he did, and being the son of a Hall-of-Famer, makes Chris Long a "Parcells guy" by association.

2. St. Louis Rams
Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
La'Roi Glover will turn 34 in July. And 2006 third-rounder Claude Wroten hasn't yet shown that he can step in and be the man. Dorsey should immediately improve the Rams front four and possibly allow 2007 first-rounder Adam Carriker to move to left defensive end.

3. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Al Davis drafted Bo Jackson even though he had Marcus Allen. So why wouldn't Davis go after McFadden when all the Raiders have now is Lamont Jordan and Domenic Rhodes? And, oh yeah, Davis has never shied away from a player just because he got caught up in a bar fight.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Ryan's not going to be confused with Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, but with a little seasoning he could be a solid starter who makes a couple of Pro Bowls, not unlike BC alum Matt Hasselbeck.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Kansas City offensive line needs serious help. If this is the way the board falls, then this pick should be a no-brainer for KC.

6. New York Jets
Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
The Jets re-signed pass rusher Bryan Thomas after a career-year in 2006; the result: a lackluster performance similar to his first four seasons.

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco 49ers)
Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.
By the time next season gets rolling along, the Pats linebacking corps will be really old. OLBs Mike Vrabel and Rosevelt Colvin will be 33 and 31 respectively. ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will be 35 and 39! Even heralded free-agent signing Adalius Thomas will be 31. Since the Pats defense looked better with Thomas at ILB, acquiring an OLB should probably be the higher priority.

8. Baltimore Ravens
Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
The Ravens add Clady to 2007 first-rounder Ben Grubbs in the hopes of building the kind of offensive line that could dominate for the next ten years.

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Though the Bengals have needs all over the defense, they've been weak in the middle of the d-line for years now. It's time for them to finally address the problem in the first round.

10. New Orleans Saints
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Another team that needs help at every level of their defense, the Saints will probably go with the best defensive player on the board.

11. Buffalo Bills
Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

12. Denver Broncos
Keith Rivers, OLB, USC

13. Carolina Panthers
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

14. Chicago Bears
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

15. Detroit Lions
Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

16. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

17. Minnesota Vikings
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

18. Houston Texans
DeSean Jackson, WR, California

19. Philadelphia Eagles
Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

21. Washington Redskins
Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland Browns)
James Hardy, WR, Indiana

23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

24. Tennessee Titans
Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

25. Seattle Seahawks
John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame

26. San Diego Chargers
Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma

27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

28. Dallas Cowboys
Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

29. Green Bay Packers
Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts)
Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida

31. New York Giants
Dan Connor, OLB, Penn State

Sunday, January 20, 2008

2008 All Free Agent Team - Offense

A look at the top unrestricted free agents available at each position. By "top," though, I don't mean the best in terms of raw ability or talent level, but in overall value, taking into consideration factors such as age and cost. Of course, it's early yet—free agency hasn't even started—and so some of these players could very well be resigned and never hit the open market. As that becomes the case, I expect I will update this "team."

QB: Chris Redman (Atlanta Falcons)
Todd Collins posted an impressive 49.1% DVOA, but he's 36 and tied to the Al Saunders system. Quinn Gray and Shaun Hill also posted positive DVOA, and Chris Redman isn't significantly better than either of them. But Gray benefitted from a strong running game, while Hill didn't see quite enough action for a full evaluation. Redman posted a positive DVOA when he started six games in 2002. In 2007, his 8.7% DVOA was 21st in the league (out of 49 QBs with at least a 100 passes) and 7.4 percentage points better than Joey Harrington's DVOA (Byron Leftiwch's DVOA on 64 passes: -56.1%, yes, that's a minus sign).

RB: Chris Brown (Tennessee Titans)
Brown's 17.9% DVOA was 10th best in the leauge. He also contributed 26.6% DVOA on his 21 receptions. Brown's upright running style is still a concern in terms of injuries and ball security, but his production, which was so much better than his running mate LenDale White's (-9.4% DVOA rushing and -19.1% receiving), will make him worth the mid-to-low level contract he gets inked to. As for everyone's favorite free agent RB, Micheal Turner, I have two words: Lamont Jordan. He might do well, but he's likely to cost more than his worth.

FB Dan Kreider (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Kreider turns 31 in March, but fullbacks should be good into their mid 30s. If you want an outlet in the passing game, you want to consider signing Carolina's Brad Hoover instead. But if you want to line up in the i formation and bulldoze your way to a first down, then Kreider's the best guy available.

WR: Bernard Berrian (Chicago Bears)
Other than Randy Moss, who I suspect will re-sign with the Pats, Berrian's the biggest name in a weak group of free agent receivers. Berrian is only 27, has had his production limited by erratic quarterback play, and can stretch the field for an offense better than any other free agent (unless Jerry Porter can return to form). As long as the money isn't crazy, Berrian will be a good signing.

WR: Ernest Wilford (Jacksonville Jaguars)
A big target and solid possession receiver, the underrated Wilford would present a nice option for a young quaterback such as Vince Young or Tarvaris Jackson. Unfortunately, Wilford's already 29, so there's little to no upside. But as a three- or four-year signing, he's the best value bet among the receivers.

TE: Ben Troupe (Tennessee Titans)
The 40th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Troupe hasn't met expectations in Tennessee. Troupe was supposed to be a receiving threat with the physical tools to develop into a good blocker. In four seasons, he's been inconsistent as a receiver and his blocking has been subpar. So why is he on my list? Well, because of his struggles, he should be able to be signed at a decent price. More importantly, he is still only 25 years old, so his peak years are still ahead of him, and he still has that physical talent. Unless there's a work ethic issue, or he lacks the desire to improve his game, Troupe should be a good signing whose production increases in the years to come.

LT: Flozell Adams (Dallas Cowboys)
Adams is the only left tackle of any consequence available. Although he played extremely well in 2007, "Hotel" turns 33 in May. He's going to want to cash in one more time, but most teams just aren't going to be able to afford giving him a contract beyond a few years and with relatively limited guaranteed money. Of course, the Dolphins are about $35 million under the cap (third best cap-positioned team in the leauge: is it any wonder why Parcells chose Miami over Atalanta, the third worst cap-positioned team?). They could offer him a longer, front-loaded contract where he gets his guaranteed dollars sooner rather than later.

RT: Jordan Gross (Carolina Panthers)
Gross is typically among the league leaders in fewest sacks allowed, even when just considering right tackles. He turns 28 in July, so he's ripe for a five-year deal. The Panthers would like to re-sign him, but they're the fourth worst team in terms of cap space (about $6 million under): if Gross hits the open market, the Cats are in trouble.

G: Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati Bengals)
Andrews started 14 games at right tackle for the Bengals who were ranked second in adjusted sack rate. He'll want tackle money, but when you look at what the guards got last year, I think the gap between guard and right tackle has shrunk a little. Don't be surprised if Andrews gets a contract in the Leonard Davis ballpark. Andrews is 26 and lacks much starting experience, but he's versatile, about to hit his peak years, and has shown enough on the field to be worth the going rate.

G: Rex Hadnot (Miami Dolphins)
Lost in the Miami Dolphins washout of a season was the fine play of their offensive line. 26-year-old Rex Hadnot is a mauler who can also get out and block in space: just the kind of lineman Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano are looking for. All they have to do is re-sign him.

C: Jeff Faine (New Orleans Saints)
Faine ranked second in Yakuza Rich's statistical rankings of centers for 2007 and first for 2006. Think this was somehow a fluke generated by playing in Sean Payton's system? In 2005, Faine's last of three seasons in Cleveland, Faine ranked fifth. The best part: Faine has five years of experience and is still young, as he turns only 27 this April.

Roster Evaluation: St. Louis Rams

Quaterback
Marc Bulger will be back at the helm next season. When healthy, and behind a line that isn't decimated by injuries the way the Rams line was last season, Bulger is still a Pro Bowl quality QB. Gus Frerotte has one-year left on his contract and should be the backup again, while the Rams bring in a mid-to-late round draft pick to groom for the future. If Michigan's Chad Henne is on the board in round three, he'd be a good get. Erik Ainge out of Tennessee is one of my favorite mid-level prospects, while San Diego's Josh Johnson might do well if brought along slowly like Tony Romo was.

Running Back
The Rams are set at running back with Steven Jackson. Brian Leonard is an adequate backup and Antonio Pittman is fine as the number three guy. One of the Rams mistakes this past season was releasing fullback Madison Hedgecock after one game. He's a solid blocker who helped pave the way for the New York Giants consistently good run game. The Rams power running, meanwhile, was among the worst in the league.
 Steelers full back Dan Kreider will be available in free agency, but will be 31. There are decent full back prospects in the draft, such as West Virginia's Own Schmitt, but with the Rams personnel they would be better served to add depth at WR and TE and continue to run single-back sets with Jackson and Leonard.

Wide Receiver
At 35, Isaac Bruce is a likely cap casualty. Torry Holt will turn 32 this off-season but appears to have a few productive seasons left in him. Last year the Rams brought in Drew Bennett and he was a huge disappointment. Given the money put into Bennett last year, St. Louis would be better off looking to the draft and it's deep class of receivers. Vanderbilt's Earl Bennett and Michigan's Mario Manningham are players who fit the Rams offense and could be available at the top of the second round. Likewise Lousiville's Harry Douglas and Houston's Donnie Avery warrant a look at the top of the third. And there are plenty of guys worth taking a chance on in the later rounds, from Alabama's D.J. Hall to Appalachian State's Dexter Jackson.

Tight End
Randy McMichael was another disappointing free agent signing. Joe Klopfenstein suffered a sophomore slump. And Dominique Byrd continued to struggle with immaturity issues. The Rams need to stay away from the big free agents out there (Dallas Clark and L.J. Smith), work with what they have and bring in another good young prospect. The Rams should stick mainly to a one-back system, running a lot of plays from two tight-end formations. This is a relatively deep draft for tight-ends and someone like Purdue's Dustin Keller or Tennessee's Brad Cottam would be a solid mid-round pick. And if Kellen Davis is there in the third round, the Rams should take a good hard look at him for his upside: if he can put it all together he would be comparable to Kellen Winslow Jr.

Offensive Line
The Rams were incredibly unlucky with injuries last year and so they can count on improvement from this unit just by some of the starters staying healthy. Still, Orlando Pace has been injured two years in a row and just doesn't have many seasons ahead of him. 2005 first-rounder Alex Barron, while showing flashes of his potential, hasn't shown nearly enough consistency or the necessary focus to be the Rams left tackle of the future. Unfortunately, backup left tackles can't be picked up off the street; the Rams will have to look to the draft for a tackle to develop, one from the second tier of prospects, such as Vanderbilt's Chris Williams, Toledo's John Greco, or Clemson's Barry Richardson.
 The interior line could be solidified with starting guards Mark Setterstrom and Richie Incognito returning from injuries, but neither of them has gotten on the field much in their short careers, so it's hard to say for sure. Center Brett Romberg is a free agent who could probably be brought back cheaply, and the Rams should sign him for depth.
 If I were the Rams I would stay away from Steelers high-priced free agent guard Alan Faneca, who is clearly on the downside of his all-pro career. Ryan Lilja of Indianapolis will be available and could be a good fit for the Rams offense, but he'll be costly, too. The offensive lineman I'd be most likely to go out and spend for is Cincinnati's Stacey Andrews, who is just hitting his peak. He could be slotted in at right guard, and Incognito could be moved to center. If Pace were to go out with an injury again, necessitating Barron's move back to left tackle, Andrews could slide over to Barron's spot, which he can man more than capably.

Defensive Line
Leonard Little is 33 and due to make $9.5 million if the Rams don't re-negotiate his contract. On the other end James Hall soon turns 31 and might not be worth his $3 million base salary in 2008. DT La'Roi Glover is also 33, but he showed he can still be productive in limited playing time, while 2007 fifth-rounder Clifton Ryan was a pleasant surprise. Last year's first round pick Adam Carriker was solid and should continue to improve.
 The big question: will the Rams switch to a 3-4 defense or stick to their 4-3? Coming off such a disastrous season, and with so many of the key players in their front seven winding down their careers, now might actually be the right time to make the change. If Greg Ellis can play OLB in Dallas, then Little, who has experience as a linebacker, should be able to make the move.
 If the Rams switch to the 3-4, Carriker could benefit the most, as 3-4 end is his most natural position. Glover and backup DE Victor Adeyanju could be effective in rotation. And of course with the second pick in the draft the Rams are guaranteed a chance at at least one of the two top-prospects who can play in a 30 front: Glenn Dorsey and Chris Long.

Linebackers
Beyond team MVP Will Witherspoon, the linebacking corps is thin. If they switch to a 3-4, the only other starter penciled in besides Witherspoon at ILB would be Leonard Little at OLB. But the switch in schemes can be done because free agency presents some options. For instance, the Rams could fill in the open starting spots with a couple of mid-level free agency signings with 3-4 experience: Jets ILB Victor Hobson and Cardinals OLB Calvin Pace. Such additions won't make the Rams defense dominant, but they will allow the Rams to compete while transitioning their defensive roster. If they want a little more fire-power they could look instead at another Cardinal, Karlos Dansby, or at Baltimore's Terrell Suggs. The Steelers' Clark Haggans will also be available, but the Rams should focus on acquiring younger talent and Haggans is already 31.
 It's also worth noting that a change in scheme doesn't necessarily mean Chris Draft or Pisa Tinolsamoa are gone: they could find a role in nickel and dime packages.
 In the draft, the Rams should have a shot at landing any number of players who could be OLBs in a 3-4 system, from second or third round prospects like Auburn's Quentin Groves or Virginia Tech's Chris Ellis to potential steals like Georgia's Marcus Howard or UCLA's Bruce Davis.

Defensive Backs
The Rams DBs were torched a lot last season. Part of that can be attributed to the poor pass rush, and another part to the fact that their starters only lined up together six times (all of the Rams three wins came in that group of games). Fakhir Brown missed four games due to suspension, but played well enough the rest of the season. 2006 first-rounder Tye Hill also played well, but he missed eight games due to injuries. One of my 2007 pet cats, third-rounder Jonathan Wade was pressed into action sooner than the Rams wanted, and it showed, but it was expected he'd be raw and he still has upside. Free safety Oshiomogho Atogwe topped the NFC with eight interceptions; he's a restricted free agent and the Rams should place a first-round tender on him. Strong safety Corey Chavous is 32 but only in the third year of his five-year deal. Given all of their needs, the Rams will likely live with Chavous and backup Tood Johnson, perhaps bringing in a seventh-rounder and an undrafted free agent or two for competition.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

2008 NFL Draft "Pet Cat" Team

An "all-draft" team comprised of underrated players, potential steals, and prospects I otherwise find myself rooting for. This year our offense goes three wide, while the defense lines up in a 3-4 hybrid.

OFFENSE
QB: Erik Ainge, Tennessee
RB: Cory Boyd, South Carolina
WR1: Lavelle Hawkins, California
WR2: Marcus Monk, Arkansas
WR3: Harry Douglas, Louisville
TE: Kellen Davis, Michigan State
T: Carl Nicks, Nebraska
T: John Greco, Toledo
G: Branden Albert, Virginia
G: Donald Thomas, Connecticut
C: Fernando Velasco, Georgia

DEFENSE
LE: Jason Jones, Eastern Michigan
NT: Ahtyba Rubin, Iowa State
DT: Trevor Laws, Notre Dame
OLB/RE: Cliff Avril, Purdue
SLB: Shawn Crable, Michigan
MLB: Jonathan Goff, Vanderbilt
WLB: Marcus Howard, Georgia
CB: Branden Flowers, Virginia Tech
CB: Charles Godfrey, Iowa
FS: Marcus Griffin, Texas
SS: Dominique Barber, Minnesota

2008 NFL Mock Draft

1. Miami Dolphins
Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Playing for Al Groh at Virginia as well as he did, and being the son of a Hall-of-Famer, makes Chris Long a "Parcells guy" by association.

2. St. Louis Rams
Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
La'Roi Glover will turn 34 in July. And 2006 third-rounder Claude Wroten hasn't yet shown that he can step in and be the man. Dorsey should immediately improve the Rams front four and possibly allow 2007 first-rounder Adam Carriker to move to left defensive end.

3. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Al Davis drafted Bo Jackson even though he had Marcus Allen. So why wouldn't Davis go after McFadden when all the Raiders have now is Lamont Jordan and Domenic Rhodes? And, oh yeah, Davis has never shied away from a player just because he got caught up in a bar fight.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Ryan's not going to be confused with Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, but with a little seasoning he could be a solid starter who makes a couple of Pro Bowls, not unlike BC alum Matt Hasselbeck.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Kansas City offensive line needs serious help. If this is the way the board falls, then this pick should be a no-brainer for KC.

6. New York Jets
Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
The Jets re-signed pass rusher Bryan Thomas after a career-year in 2006; the result: a lackluster performance similar to his first four seasons.

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco 49ers)
Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.
By the time next season gets rolling along, the Pats linebacking corps will be really old. OLBs Mike Vrabel and Rosevelt Colvin will be 33 and 31 respectively. ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will be 35 and 39! Even heralded free-agent signing Adalius Thomas will be 31. Since the Pats defense looked better with Thomas at ILB, acquiring an OLB should probably be the higher priority.

8. Baltimore Ravens
Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
The Ravens add Clady to 2007 first-rounder Ben Grubbs in the hopes of building the kind of offensive line that could dominate for the next ten years.

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Though the Bengals have needs all over the defense, they've been weak in the middle of the d-line for years now. It's time for them to finally address the problem in the first round, and Ellis will be a good fit in new coordinator Mike Zimmer's defensive scheme.

10. New Orleans Saints
Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Another team that needs help at every level of their defense, the Saints will probably go with the best defensive player on the board.

11. Buffalo Bills
Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

12. Denver Broncos
Keith Rivers, OLB, USC

13. Carolina Panthers
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

14. Chicago Bears
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

15. Detroit Lions
Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

16. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

17. Minnesota Vikings
Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan

18. Houston Texans
DeSean Jackson, WR, California

19. Philadelphia Eagles
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

21. Washington Redskins
Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma St.

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland Browns)
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

23. Pittsburgh Steelers
James Hardy, WR, Indiana

24. Tennessee Titans
Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt

25. Seattle Seahawks
John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame

26. New York Giants
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

27. San Diego Chargers
Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma

28. Jacksonville Jaguars
Branden Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech

29. Dallas Cowboys
Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts)
Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

31. Green Bay Packers
Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

32. New England Patriots
pick forfeited

53 Deep - and staying that way?

I've changed the name of this blog every year so far. It started out as NFL Rover, changed to NFL Draft Star, and then it was Muddy Fields. Well, now it's 53 Deep. I hope to stick with the name and to post content more consistently.

53 Deep 2007 All-Pro Team

OFFENSE
QB: Tom Brady, New England Patriots
RB: Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles
TE: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
TE: Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
WR: Randy Moss, New England Patriots
WR: Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys
T: Flozell Adams, Dallas Cowboys
T: Chris Samuels, Washington Redskins
G: Logan Mankins, New England Patriots
G: Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota Vikings
C: Dan Koppen, New England Patriots

DEFENSE
LE: Aaron Kampman, Green Bay
DT: Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee Titans
DT: Vince Wilfork, New England Patriots
RE: Jared Allen, Kansas City Chiefs
OLB: Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots
MLB: Patrick Willis, San Francisco 49ers
OLB: DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys
CB: Antonio Cromartie, San Diego Chargers
CB: Terence Newman, Dallas Cowboys
SS: Bob Sanders, Indianapolis Colts
FS: Antoine Bethea, Indianapolis Colts

SPECIAL TEAMS
K: Rob Bironas, Tennessee Titans
P: Andy Lee, San Francisco 49ers
KR: Devin Hester, Chicago Bears

Friday, January 18, 2008

Roster Evaluation: Miami Dolphins

Quaterback
Parcells & Co. will look for a veteran QB who can "drive the bus" until a franchise QB can be brought in. Cleo Lemon is a free agent who probably won't be resigned because he doesn't fit the QB prototype that Parcells likes. John Beck also doesn't fit the prototype, and I could see the Dolphins trying to deal him to another team for a low-round pick.
 In free agency there aren't going to be many options. Todd Collins who had some success as the Redskins backup might be the best "busdriver" available. If they could trade for Browns restricted free agent Derek Anderson without giving up too much that would be a great move, but the Browns seem more and more like they aren't willing to deal Anderson for what most teams would want to give up to get him.
 Without a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer available with the number one pick in the NFL draft, the Dolphins would be wise to wait and see who is on the board at the top of the third round. Tennessee's Erik Ainge is comparable to Derek Anderson, while Delaware's Joe Flacco is in the Ben Roethlisberger mold, although Flacco's not quite the top-flight prospect Big Ben was.

Running Back
There's a zero percent chance of the Dolphins using the top pick in this draft on a running back. That's not the way Parcells & Co. roll, and it's a good thing because there's no reason to spend that much for a back, even an elite prospect like Darren McFadden. What's more, the Dolphins already have one of the top five RBs in the league. Ronnie Brown was leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage at the time of his injury. With Ricky Williams and Jesse Chatman as backups, and Marty Booker the resident scat back, the Phins don't even have to go out of their way to acquire depth. Instead, they can wait for someone to fall to them and pick up a mid-round steal. I know the guy I'd be looking for is Cory Boyd, whose hard runs reminded me of watching Dallas's Marion Barber, and whose earlier character issues seem to be well behind him.

Wide Receiver
Miami's most consistent receiver the past few seasons, Marty Booker is almost certainly going to say goodbye to Miami. He'll be 32 next season and in the last year of a contract that would pay him $4.3 million. 2006 third-rounder Derek Hagan has been disappointing in his first two seasons and could be gone quick if he doesn't start catching the ball more consistently. Last year's top draft choice Ted Ginn Jr. may need to get good in a hurry if the Dolphins are going to have any kind of vertical game.
 To improve their woeful depth chart, and complement Ginn, the Dolphins should bring in a solid possession WR, an underrated free agent like Ernest Wilford. They might also want to steal a page from the Patriots off-season playbook and sign multiple free agents at the position, guys like Bryant Johnson, D.J. Hackett (whose only problem is he can't stay healthy), or the Patriot's own Jabar Gaffney.
 While the draft lacks an elite WR, there's plenty of depth, so the Dolphins could add another couple of young receivers with their later picks, or even as undrafted free agents. This was a strong point of Parcells and Ireland in Dallas, where they brought in Patrick Crayton, Terrence Copper, and Sam Hurd.

Tight End
Parcells loves his tight ends, and he's sure to replace the Mueller/Cameron guys—David Martin, Justin Peelle, and Aaron Halterman—with some of his own. Sean Ryan was a 2004 Cowboys pick who played the past two seasons with the Jets. He's primarily a blocker and if the Phins sign him it would be to add depth. Same deal if they sign 2000 Parcells draft pick Anthony Becht who has spent the last three seasons in Tampa. Yalie Eric Johnson, a good receiver and decent all-around TE, is another guy that could be on their radar.
 This draft has some good talent at TE. Parcells and Ireland are the guys who drafted Anthony Fasano in round two with Dallas. This year there's another Notre Dame TE, John Carlson, and he's an even better prospect. Don't be surprised if the Dolphins snag him in the second round.

Offensive Line
Another part of the team that will likely see an instant make over. Vernon Carey, who is in the last year of his contract, was a pleasant surprise as the left tackle, but he could be moved back to the right side where L.J. Shelton is a potential cap casualty. And both of Miami's starting guards, Rex Hadnot and Chris Liwienski, are set to be free agents. Having proven, if nothing, great versatility, Carey should get a contract extension so that the Dolphins can move forward with building their line around him and 2007 second-round center Samson Satele.
 There are some free agents that could be in play for the Dolphins. Flozell Adams is getting up there in age, but he had a dominant 2007 (see Dr. Z's all-pro write-up if you don't believe me). While signing him might not be the smartest long-term move because of what it will cost to land him (not just dollars, but years), it's the kind of move that can help turn around a franchise quickly. Stacey Andrews filled in nicely at right tackle for the Bengals last year and can also play inside at guard. His best years are still ahead of him and because of that he's the most valuable free agent lineman out there. Jason Fabini's best years are well behind him (especially his pass blocking), but he was a Parcells guy and could be brought in for the vet minimum to provide depth and start in a pinch.

Defensive Line
Make no mistake, the Dolphins will be trotting out a 3-4 base defense in 2008. Vonnie Holiday is 32 years old but signed through 2010; he's the likely starter at one of the end spots. They have a trio of young nose tackles (Paul Soliai, Steve Fifita, and Anthony Bryant): could one of them step up and be a stop-gap at the position until a high-caliber NT is brought in? Don't count on it: there's a reason Parcells and Ireland didn't draft any of these guys for Dallas when they were looking for a young NT. The other end spot will also be up for grabs with a number of young, unproven linemen on the roster.
 49ers free agent Marques Douglas will be 31 soon, but he's a very good 3-4 end who could solidify the front, so long as the Phins have someone else to rotate in to help keep Douglas fresh throughout games and the throughout the season. Miami might want to take a look at Green Bay DT Corey Williams who appears to have the skills to do well as a 3-4 end. Dallas's Chris Canty is a restricted free agent, but Jerry Jones is bound to give him an extension similar to what Jay Ratliff received a couple of months ago.
 One of the top two or three linemen in the draft, Virginia's Chris Long played for Parcells protégé Al Groh and comes into the leauge already knowing the two-gap scheme likely to be installed. Though a bit undersized, Marcus Harrison out of Arkansas might be the best NT prospect in the draft. But character concerns will likely keep the Phins from taking a chance on him. Instead, they'll probably target someone in the mid-to-late rounds, where Iowa State's Ahtyba Rubin and Texas's Frank Okam are guys to keep an eye on.

Linebackers
Zach Thomas is in the last year of his contract, his base salary is $5.65 million, and he's 5'11", 225 lbs., which doesn't even come close to the prototypical 3-4 ILB that Parcells & Ireland are looking for. So there's pretty much no chance Thomas will be a Dolphin next season.
 Channing Crowder, on the other hand, has the size and speed to play in the new defense. He can opt out of his contract and become a free agent, but a deal should be able to be worked out assuming he and the front office come to the table with reasonable expectations.
 The Dolphins already have a pair of formidable OLBs for their 3-4: Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Both are getting old (33 and 30 respectively) but both have something left to contribute. And if you doubt that a character like Porter can play in a Parcells-type squad late in his career, I'd point you to Bryan Cox with the Jets in the late 90s.
 Of the young LBs on the roster, 2007 seventh-rounder Abraham Wright out of Colorado might be the best fit, subbing in as a pass rushing OLB.
 Free agency isn't likely to bring any "Parcells guys," but there are a couple intriguing options. Kawika Mitchell of the Giants might work well inside, as might Karlos Dansby of the Cardinals. As far as outside rushers, Terrell Suggs will probably cost more than a smart front office would want to invest in him, but Calvin Pace, another Cardinal, is
coming off his best season and could be a solid mid-level signing.
 I don't expect Miami will use a high pick on a LB. In the mid-to-late rounds, they could target a pass rusher like Purdue's Cliff Avril or Georgia's Marcus Howard, as well as an ILB project like Michigan's Shawn Crable or Vanderbilt's Jonathan Goff.

Defensive Backs
With all of their other needs the Dolphins may have to live for now with the DBs they have. An improved pass rush, after all, goes a long way toward improving the secondary. Will Allen will probably hold down one starting corner spot, while Travis Daniels may get the other one by default. Though unlikely, 2006 first-fournder Jason Allen could even be given a shot to move from free safety to CB, since he would give the Phins a bigger, more physical presence on the edge.
 The best Miami DB the past two seasons has been strong safety Yeremiah Bell, who really came into his own in 2006. Unfortunately he spent much of last season on IR and is now a free agent.
 There will likely be three former Dallas DBs on the market from the Parcells era there. One in particular, safety Keith Davis, seems almost assured of a spot in Miami. He's a great special teams player and can play either safety spot, though he's a more natural strong safety. Former Cowboy CBs Nate Jones and Jacques Reeves could be brought in for depth purposes, but neither is a guy you want starting.
 The best free agent CB is Nnamdi Asomugha of the Raiders, but I can't imagine Oakland wouldn't resign him or at least franchise him for a year. Seattle's Marcus Trufant is another top-notch CB who may or may not be available. If the Dolphins want to make a splash they could go after New England's Asante Samuel, but if the Pats have any interest in resigning him Parcells will keep the Dolphins away. The smartest move might be to pursue a mid-level upgrade like San Diego's Drayton Florence or New England's Randall Gay, while drafting another young CB to bring along.
 Brandon Flowers out of Virgina Tech plays the CB position with a toughness that's sure to have drawn Parcells and Ireland's attention. And though Wisconsin's Jack Ikegwuonu didn't have the best 2007, his style of play has drawn comparisons to Dallas Cowboys CB Anthony Henry.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

2008 NFL Draft position rankings

OFFENSE
Quarterbak
1. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
2. Andre' Woodson, QB, Kentucky
3. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
4. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee
5. Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
6. Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
9. Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon
10. Paul Smith, QB, Tulsa

Running Back
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
3. Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
4. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
5. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
6. Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
7. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
8. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
9. Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma
10. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina

Fullback
1. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
2. Brandon McAnderson, RB, Kansas
3. Matt Forte, FB, Tulane
4. Peyton Hillis, FB, Arkansas
5. Carl Stewart, FB, Auburn

Wide Receiver
1. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
2. James Hardy, WR, Indiana
3. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
4. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
5. Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan
6. Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
7. Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State
8. Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
9. DeSean Jackson, WR, California
10. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt

Tight End
1. John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
2. Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
3. Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan St.
4. Fred Davis, TE, USC
5. Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
6. Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
7. Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
8. Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky
9. Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
10. Craig Stevens, TE, California

Offensive Tackle
1. Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
3. Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
4. Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
5. Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
6. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
7. John Greco, OT, Toledo
8. Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson
9. Sam Baker, OT, USC
10. Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska

Offensive Guard
1. Eric Young, G, Tennessee
2. Branden Albert, G, Virginia
3. Jordan Grimes, G, Purdue
4. Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
5. Will Arnold, G, LSU

Center
1. Cody Wallace, C, Texas A&M
2. Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green
3. Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
4. John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
5. Fernando Velasco, C, Georgia

DEFENSE
Defensive End
1. Chris Long, DE, Virginia
2. Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
3. Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
4. Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
5. Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
6. Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
7. Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
8. Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
9. Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
10. Wallace Gilberry, DE, Alabama

Defensive Tackle
1. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
2. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
3. Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
4. Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
5. Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
6. DeMario Pressley, DT, North Carolina State
7. Frank Okam, DT, Texas
8. Trevor Laws, DE, Notre Dame
9. Lorenzo Williams, DT, Missouri
10. Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State

Outside Linebacker
1. Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
2. Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
3. Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU
4. Dan Connor, OLB, Penn State
5. Ezra Butler, OLB, Nevada
6. Shawn Crable, OLB, Michigan
7. Jordon Dizon, OLB, Colorado
8. Erin Henderson, OLB, Maryland
9. Bruce Davis, DE, UCLA
10. Xavier Adibi, OLB, Virginia Tech

Middle Linebacker
1. Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
2. Jerod Mayo, MLB, Tennessee
3. Jonathan Goff, MLB, Vanderbilt
4. J Leman, MLB, Illinois
5. Vince Hall, MLB, Virginia Tech

Cornerback
1. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
2. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
3. Branden Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
4. Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
5. Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
6. Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
7. Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
8. Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
9. Justin King, Penn State
10. Jake Ikegwuonu, CB, Wisconsin

Safety
1. Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami
2. Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma
3. Josh Barrett, SS, Arizona State
4. Marcus Griffin, FS, Texas
5. Jonathan Hefney, DB, Tennessee

2008 NFL Mock Draft

1. Miami Dolphins
Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Playing for Al Groh at Virginia as well as he did, and being the son of a Hall-of-Famer, makes Chris Long a "Parcells guy" by association.

2. St. Louis Rams
Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
La'Roi Glover will turn 34 in July. And 2006 third-rounder Claude Wroten hasn't yet shown that he can step in and be the man. Dorsey should immediately improve the Rams front four and possibly allow 2007 first-rounder Adam Carriker to move to left defensive end.

3. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Al Davis drafted Bo Jackson even though he had Marcus Allen. So why wouldn't Davis go after McFadden when all the Raiders have now is Lamont Jordan and Domenic Rhodes? And, oh yeah, Davis has never shied away from a player just because he got caught up in a bar fight.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Ryan's not going to be confused with Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, but with a little seasoning he could be a solid starter who makes a couple of Pro Bowls, not unlike BC alum Matt Hasselbeck.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Kansas City offensive line needs serious help. If this is the way the board falls, then this pick should be a no-brainer for KC.

6. New York Jets
Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
The Jets re-signed pass rusher Bryan Thomas after a career-year in 2006; the result: a lackluster performance similar to his first four seasons.

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco 49ers)
Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
By the time next season gets rolling along, the Pats linebacking corps will be really old. OLBs Mike Vrabel and Rosevelt Colvin will be 33 and 31 respectively. ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will be 35 and 39! Even heralded free-agent signing Adalius Thomas will be 31. Since the Pats defense looked better with Thomas at ILB, acquiring an OLB should probably be the higher priority. But this isn't a good draft for dynamic pass rushers. I doubt Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston could smoothly transition to the Pats 3-4 and Auburn tweener Quentin Groves looked lost at times in his senior season.

8. Baltimore Ravens
Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi
Marty Schottenheimer would be perfect for this team (he would actually make use of the underrated Mike Anderson). With Otah and 2007 first-rounder Ben Grubbs the Ravens would be building the kind of offensive line that could dominate for the next ten years.

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Though the Bengals have needs all over the defense, they've been weak in the middle of the d-line for years now; it's time for them to finally address the problem in the first round.

10. New Orleans Saints
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
Another team that needs help at every level of their defense, the Saints will probably go with the best defensive player on the board.

11. Buffalo Bills
Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Last year, just about everybody had JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn as the top two QB prospects (not necessarily in that order). The big question was "Who's the best of the rest?" I'm happy to say my answer was Trent Edwards because in his first year he played like it. Combine Edwards with Marshawn Lynch who ran better in his first season than I thought he would, Jason Peters at left tackle, and Lee Evans split wide, and the Bills have the makings of an explosive offense. Now they need to keep adding weapons to help Edwards progress; without a top-10-tpye tight end prospect in this draft, the next best bet is to add the top-rated WR in the draft.

12. Denver Broncos
Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
A fast linebacker, perhaps a tad undersized, Rivers could excel in the Denver defense provided that the youngsters in the front four play better than last year.

13. Carolina Panthers
Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Panthers are in need of a left tackle to help protect Jake Delhomme, so Matt Moore can continue to develop on the sidelines for another season or two, the way Tony Romo did in Dallas.

14. Chicago Bears
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
It's time to admit that Cedric Benson was a bust and move on. As much as the Bears need improvement at QB, Mendenhall is the kind of elite runner who is actually worth a first-round pick: the kind of back whose presence can help the passing game by forcing the defense to play eight-in-the-box.

15. Detroit Lions
Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.
With the top-three offensive tackles off the board, the Lions select a WR. Just kidding! The Lions still don't get enough pressure on the QB and should be looking to add a pass-rusher. I'm not as high on Gholston as most of the draftniks are, but at this point it looks like he'll be a top-20 pick.

16. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Stewart is another prospect I don't have rated as high as many others do. Still, I can't help imaging Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt imaging Stewart bringing a power running game to Arizona the way Jerome Bettis brought it in Pittsburgh.

17. Minnesota Vikings
Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
Are the Vikings ready to sink or swim with Tarvaris Jackson? That's the decision before them with Brian Brohm still on the board. Even though there would be some value to drafting Brohm and keeping him on the bench to see what happens with Jackson (Brohm could bring value in a trade if Jackson continues to improve as he did during the course of 2007), I see the Vikings showing him a vote of confidence and selecting another small school prospect: this time on the defensive side of the ball, where the Vikings ends don't generate enough pass rush.

18. Houston Texans
Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma
The Texans could be set at cornerback with Dunta Robinson and 2007 fourth-rounder Fred Bennett, who showed some promise. But they need help at safety and that could be where Reggie Smith steps in.

19. Philadelphia Eagles
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
McNabb says the Eagles need more playmakers. And they do. But with Jevon Kearse and Darren Howard both 31 and Juqua Thomas about to turn 30, they could use a youthful upgrade at left defensive end to team with right-side DE Trent Cole.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DeSean Jackson, WR, California
Joey Galloway is 36. It's time to find a new WR who can stretch the field.

21. Washington Redskins
Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma St.

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland Browns)
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

24. Tennessee Titans
Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

25. Seattle Seahawks
Fred Davis, TE, USC

26. New York Giants
Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

27. San Diego Chargers
Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt

28. Jacksonville Jaguars
Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona

29. Dallas Cowboys
Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts)
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

31. Green Bay Packers
Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

32. New England Patriots
pick forfeited

Sunday, January 13, 2008

2008 NFL Mock Draft

1. Miami Dolphins
Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Playing for Al Groh at Virginia as well as he did, and being the son of a Hall-of-Famer, makes Chris Long a "Parcells guy" by association.

2. St. Louis Rams
Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
La'Roi Glover will turn 34 in July. And 2006 third-rounder Claude Wroten hasn't yet shown that he can step in and be the man. Dorsey should immediately improve the Rams front four and possibly allow 2007 first-rounder Adam Carriker to move to left defensive end.

3. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Al Davis drafted Bo Jackson even though he had Marcus Allen. So why wouldn't Davis go after McFadden when all the Raiders have now is Lamont Jordan and Domenic Rhodes? And, oh yeah, Davis has never shied away from a player just because he got caught up in a bar fight.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Ryan's not going to be confused with Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, but with a little seasoning he could be a solid starter who makes a couple of Pro Bowls, not unlike BC alum Matt Hasselbeck.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Kansas City offensive line needs serious help. If this is the way the board falls, then this pick should be a no-brainer for KC.

6. New York Jets
Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
The Jets re-signed pass rusher Bryan Thomas after a career-year in 2006; the result: a lackluster performance similar to his first four seasons.

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco 49ers)
Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
By the time next season gets rolling along, the Pats linebacking corps will be really old. OLBs Mike Vrabel and Rosevelt Colvin will be 33 and 31 respectively. ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will be 35 and 39! Even heralded free-agent signing Adalius Thomas will be 31. Since the Pats defense looked better with Thomas at ILB, acquiring an OLB should probably be the higher priority. But this isn't a good draft for dynamic pass rushers. I doubt Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston could smoothly transition to the Pats 3-4 and Auburn tweener Quentin Groves looked lost at times in his senior season.

8. Baltimore Ravens
Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Marty Schottenheimer would be perfect for this team (he would actually make use of the underrated Mike Anderson). With Otah and 2007 first-rounder Ben Grubbs the Ravens would be building the kind of offensive line that could dominate for the next ten years.

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Though the Bengals have needs all over the defense, they've been weak in the middle of the d-line for years now; it's time for them to finally address the problem in the first round.

10. New Orleans Saints
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
Another team that needs help at every level of their defense, the Saints will probably go with the best defensive player on the board.

11. Buffalo Bills
Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Last year, just about everybody had JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn as the top two QB prospects (not necessarily in that order). The big question was "Who's the best of the rest?" I'm happy to say my answer was Trent Edwards because in his first year he played like it. Combine Edwards with Marshawn Lynch who ran better in his first season than I thought he would, Jason Peters at left tackle, and Lee Evans split wide, and the Bills have the makings of an explosive offense. Now they need to keep adding weapons to help Edwards progress; without a top-10-tpye tight end prospect in this draft, the next best bet is to add the top-rated WR in the draft.

12. Denver Broncos
Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
A fast linebacker, perhaps a tad undersized, Rivers could excel in the Denver defense provided that the youngsters in the front four play better than last year.

13. Carolina Panthers
Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Panthers are in need of a left tackle to help protect Jake Delhomme, so Matt Moore can continue to develop on the sidelines for another season or two, the way Tony Romo did in Dallas.

14. Chicago Bears
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
It's time to admit that Cedric Benson was a bust and move on. As much as the Bears need improvement at QB, Mendenhall is the kind of elite runner who is actually worth a first-round pick: the kind of back whose presence can help the passing game by forcing the defense to play eight-in-the-box.

15. Detroit Lions
Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.
With the top-three offensive tackles off the board, the Lions select a WR. Just kidding! The Lions still don't get enough pressure on the QB and should be looking to add a pass-rusher. I'm not as high on Gholston as most of the draftniks are, but at this point it looks like he'll be a top-20 pick.

16. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Stewart is another prospect I don't have rated as high as many others do. Still, I can't help imaging Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt imaging Stewart bringing a power running game to Arizona the way Jerome Bettis brought it in Pittsburgh.

17. Minnesota Vikings
Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
Are the Vikings ready to sink or swim with Tarvaris Jackson? That's the decision before them with Brian Brohm still on the board. Even though there would be some value to drafting Brohm and keeping him on the bench to see what happens with Jackson (Brohm could bring value in a trade if Jackson continues to improve as he did during the course of 2007), I see the Vikings showing him a vote of confidence and selecting another small school prospect: this time on the defensive side of the ball, where the Vikings ends don't generate enough pass rush.

18. Houston Texans
Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma
The Texans could be set at cornerback with Dunta Robinson and 2007 fourth-rounder Fred Bennett, who showed some promise. But they need help at safety and that could be where Reggie Smith steps in.

19. Philadelphia Eagles
Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma St.
McNabb says the Eagles need more playmakers. And they do.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DeSean Jackson, WR, California
Joey Galloway is 36. It's time to find a new WR who can stretch the field.

21. Washington Redskins
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland Browns)
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

24. Tennessee Titans
Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

25. Seattle Seahawks
Fred Davis, TE, USC

26. New York Giants
Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

27. San Diego Chargers
Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt

28. Jacksonville Jaguars
Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona

29. Green Bay Packers
Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts)
Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

31. Dallas Cowboys
James Hardy, WR, Indiana

32. New England Patriots
pick forfeited

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

2008 NFL Mock Draft

1. Miami Dolphins
Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

2. St. Louis Rams
Jake Long, OT, Michigan

3. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

4. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

6. New York Jets
Chris Long, DE, Virginia

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco 49ers)
Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State

8. Baltimore Ravens
Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

10. New Orleans Saints
James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State

11. Buffalo Bills
Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

12. Denver Broncos
Keith Rivers, OLB, USC

13. Carolina Panthers
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

14. Chicago Bears
Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

15. Detroit Lions
Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

16. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

17. Minnesota Vikings
Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan

18. Houston Texans
Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona

19. Philadelphia Eagles
Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

21. Washington Redskins
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland Browns)
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

23. Seattle Seahawks
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

25. Tennessee Titans
DeSean Jackson, WR, California

26. New York Giants
Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

27. San Diego Chargers
Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma St.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars
Dan Connor, OLB, Penn State

29. Green Bay Packers
Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts)
Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

31. Dallas Cowboys
Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers

32. New England Patriots
pick forfeited