Showing posts with label Blocker Rating. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blocker Rating. Show all posts

Friday, May 30, 2008

In the Trenches: 2007 week eight

Games Reviewed
Indianapolis Colts (31) at Carolina Panthers (7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (24) at Cincinnati Bengals (13)
Washington Redskins (7) at New England Patriots (52)

Unfortunately there were only three NFL Replay games for week eight. But at least I got my first look at the Carolina Panthers, and overall the line play was pretty good, especially at right tackle where no one had a below average Blocker Rating.

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

For the third time (out of three 2007 season games reviewed so far) Matt Light puts up an above average BR. I'm surprised he has done so well, though I expect his play will drop off later in the season. I still say Chris Samuels is one of the best left tackles in the game, and definitely one of the most fun to watch, even though his 8.57 BR on the season so far ranks only ninth (and no, I'm not a Redskins fan). Levi Jones looked off on his game and was most ineffective with his run blocking (6.75 RBR). Charlie Johnson struggled in both pass and run blocking and easily had the worst game of any of this week's linemen.

Left Guard

Finally, I got to review a game in which Logan Mankins looked like one of the NFL's top guards. Unfortunately for Jets fans, Alan Faneca was once again less effective than the average left guard; on the other hand, he should still be about nine plays per game better than Adrien Clarke. For Jets fans keeping score at home here are the relevant 2007 BRs so far: Pete Kendall, 8.64 BR (242 plays); Faneca, 8.29 BR (161 plays); Clarke, 7.39 BR (95 plays).

Center

As bad as Mahan looked the first time I reviewed one of his games, he has been decent the second two times. Really all of the centers this week were just that: decent, average. Except for Dan Koppen who, like his Patriot linemates, dominated the Redskins defensive front.

Right Guard

Including Super Bowl XLII, I've now reviewed four Patriots games, and in each game Stephen Neal has outperformed Logan Mankins. Neal doesn't have the same ability at pulling that Mankins does, but he seems to be stronger at the point of attack and more effective with blocks at the second level. Bobbie Williams had a relatively mistake-free game, but despite having the highest BR of the week, "steady" and "solid" seem like more apt descriptions of his game than "dominant" or even "great."

Right Tackle

The only below-average right tackle this week was New England's Ryan O'Callaghan who is not listed above because he was only in for six plays. Stacy Andrews, who had looked awful at left guard early in the year, did very well in both pass and run blocking. Nick Kaczur, like teammate Matt Light, continues to surprise. Willie Colon is shaping up to be the Steelers' top offensive lineman. Though I don't chart it due to the extra time it would take, I'd say that Todd Wade had the most double-team help of any of these other tackles and is definitely playing at a level a notch or two below all of them.

Friday, May 23, 2008

In the Trenches: 2007 week seven

Games Reviewed
Arizona Cardinals (19) at Washington Redskins (21)
Baltimore Ravens (14) at Buffalo Bills (19)
Tennessee Titans (38) at Houston Texans (36)
Chicago Bears (19) at Philadelphia Eagles (16)
Pittsburgh Steelers (28) at Denver Broncos (31)

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

Though he made some rookie blunders, Baltimore's Jared Gaither was way more impressive than Arizona's more heralded rookie, Levi Brown, who was a definite step down from starter Mike Gandy. Jason Peters once again scored surprisingly low; he had a lopsided game, doing very well in pass protection (9.32 PBR) but not so much in the running game (7.12 RBR).

Left Guard

Alan Faneca looked much better against the Broncos than he had against the Cardinals, but it still wasn't a stellar game. Jason Brown continues to perform well and is now the highest rated left guard on the season. Chester Pitts's rating is artificially high: in the NFL Replay version of the Titans-Texans game, three or four Texans three-and-outs were cut out, leaving the Texans with only five running plays to review; pass blocker ratings are higher than run blocker ratings, and left guards (along with centers) have the biggest difference (seven tenths).

Center

Re: Mike Flanagan, see the comment on Chester Pitts above. Even with a good game against the Eagles, Olin Kreutz is still below average for the season. I've seen enough of Kevin Mawae now to say he's still one of the top centers in the league. Mike Pucillo rebounded from his awful week-six appearance, turning in a serviceable game. Melvin Fowler had a great game against the Broncos and a decent game against the Colts, but struggled noticeably against the Ravens.

Right Guard

The list of the top-rated guards (left or right) for the 2007 season now goes like this: Leonard Davis, Cowboys (9.39 BR, 147 plays), Shawn Andrews, Eagles (9.29 BR, 63 plays), Chris Snee, Giants (9.23 BR, 162 plays). Yes, they're all in the NFC East; and unsung Giant lineman Rich Seubert is fifth (behind Jason Brown) with a 9.04 BR.

Right Tackle

Marshal Yanda just keeps having good games, as does David Stewart. They're the second and sixth rated right tackles so far on the season.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

In the Trenches: 2007 week six

Games Reviewed
Oakland Raiders (14) at San Diego Chargers (28)
Washington Redskins (14) at Green Bay Packers (17)
New England Patriots (48) at Dallas Cowboys (27)
Miami Dolphins (31) at Cleveland Browns (41)
Minnesota Vikings (34) at Chicago Bears (31)

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

None of the left tackles had poor weeks, though it was disappointing to see favorites Chris Samuels, Joe Thomas, and Chad Clifton on the wrong side of average. Each struggled in the run game but did well in pass protection, as did Bryant McKinnie, Barry Sims, and Flozell Adams, who still managed an above-average BR in what was likely his worst performance of the season. Meanwhile, Vernon Carey, with three games reviewed, is having one of the best seasons of any tackle so far.

Left Guard

This is the third time I've reviewed a New England game, including the Super Bowl and 2007 week one (which used my earlier rating system which tended to yield higher scores) and Logan Mankins has yet to turn in a noticeably above-average game. On the other hand, since NFL Replay isn't given to showing blow outs, his best games probably aren't going to be considered here. Dielman and Hutchinson appear right where you would expect them to. Dielman is one of only two left guards with a BR over 9 so far this season (the other is New York Giant Rich Seubert, while Baltimore's Jason Brown is only a couple hundredths off).

Center

Casey Rabach left the game with a groin injury and there was a huge drop off for Washington when Mike Pucillo stepped in. Of the centers with at least 50 reviewed plays so far, Rabach has the second best BR (9.18) behind Denver's Tom Nalen (9.2). Andre Gurode struggled mightily with Vince Wilfork and the middle of that early-season Patriot defense. Olin Kreutz, going against those tough Minnesota defensive tackles, rebounded nicely from his rough week-five performance against Green Bay. San Diego's Nick Hardwick had a BR of 10, but only had six plays rated before leaving the game with an injury.

Right Guard

Dallas owner Jerry Jones received a lot of criticism when he signed Leonard Davis to a big contract last off-season, but it sure looks like it was worth it. Last week I noted that the Giants' Chris Snee might be the best guard in the league these days, so I'll just note now that Snee's 9.23 BR is second best among all guards. First is Davis with a 9.39 BR. Rex Hadnot had a nice game, which is a good reminder that you can't judge a player based off of one game. Cooper Carlisle, on the other hand, looked a lot worse than he had in week two; although, the guys on the San Diego defensive line in 2007 were a tougher match-up than the ones playing for Denver.

Right Tackle

This is becoming a theme: this is the third time a Dolphins' game has been included in these weekly ratings and each time the opposing right tackle—in this case the Browns' duo of Kevin Shaffer and Ryan Tucker—has rated the highest of any right tackle that week. Consider also that in week one the opposing right tackle (for most of the game) was Washington's Stephon Heyer who this week looked miserable against the Packers. The sometimes maligned Nick Kaczur had a good game against the aggressive Dallas pass rush. He has been the best right tackle in the 2007 games reviewed thus far, posting a 8.97 BR. Another player who had a decent week six, the even more maligned L.J. Shelton, is second best with an 8.81 BR.

Thursday, May 01, 2008

In the Trenches: 2007 week five

Games Reviewed
New York Jets (24) at New York Giants (35)
Miami Dolphins (19) at Houston Texans (22)
Atlanta Falcons (13) at Tennessee Titans (20)
Chicago Bears (27) at Green Bay Packers (20)
Dallas Cowboys (25) at Buffalo Bills (24)

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

Unlike in week one, Ferguson matched his reputation for being a weak run blocker (6.52 RBR), but he exceled in the passing game (9.22 PBR). Jason Peters struggled against DeMarcus Ware and Chris Canty. Chad Clifton's play at times looked uncharacteristically uninspired.

Left Guard

Chester Pitts had a strong game against Miami's poor interior line. Justin Blalock played as poorly as any linemen I've seen in the games reviewed thus far. Or, he held that distinction until Falcons reserve tackle Renardo Foster entered the game.

Center

Rex Hadnot moved to center later in the game and only saw 18 snaps there. Had he had more snaps he almost certainly wouldn't have had the best BR of the centers this week. Olin Kreutz was surprisingly ineffective, not just in the power run game but in getting out and making blocks at the second level as well.

Right Guard

I knew he was good, but Chris Snee might be the best guard in football. Leonard Davis was once again impressive. Anthony Alabi only had 18 plays, but did well when he was in there. Roberto Garza didn't start out so bad but really seemed to wear down as the game wore on.

Right Tackle

Two Dolphins games have showed up so far and both times the right tackles have played very, very well against them. If there were an opponent adjustment, Eric Winston wouldn't be at the top. Mark Tauscher rebounded from a sub-par game the prior week and his play at times was dominating in this contest which the Packers should have won.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

In the Trenches: 2007 week four

Games Reviewed
Pittsburgh Steelers (14) at Arizona Cardinals (21)
Chicago Bears (27) at Detroit Lions (37)
Green Bay Packers (23) at Minnesota Vikings (16)
Kansas City Chiefs (30) at San Diego Chargers (16)
Denver Broncos (20) at Indianapolis Colts (38)

Game Notes
The season Blocker Rating averages dip a bit after implementing BR 2.0 for week four. But the dip can't be attributed only to the changes I made to the rating system, as the five games from this week contained some atrocious blocking. The Chiefs were so bad that I'm pretty sure watching their game against the Chargers gave me the flu. I might have had a swifter recovery if I hadn't tried to stomach the Bears-Lions match up right away. Finally, it was more luck than good judgment that saved me from the Steeler game until I was clear headed.
  A couple of week ago, after he had a good game against the Seahawks, I wondered if Arizona guard Reggie Wells always played that well and if he might not be one of the most underrated linemen in the NFL. After seeing two more Arizona games I feel confident in saying he's not all that. He's an adequate starter, and he plays the game the right way, but it's his teammate, left tackle Mike Gandy, who has been looking like a guy who deserves more accolades. Unfortunately, sample size is still too small to make any definitive statement, but Gandy's 8.99 BR for the season is tops so far among left tackles with at least 50 charted snaps (which includes guys like Walter Jones, Matt Light, Chad Clifton, Chris Samuels, and Marcus McNeil) and fourth among LTs with at least 20 snaps (behind Flozell Adams, Joe Thomas, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson).
  Two right tackles, Kansas City's Kyle Turley and Detroit's Jonathan Scott, posted the first BRs below 6. Turley was replaced by Chris Terry, who played poorly himself but virtually shined in comparison to Turley (and most of the rest of the Chiefs' line). Meanwhile, Scott was a replacement for George Foster who had committed his seventh false start penalty of the year. Foster had not been playing well by any stretch of the imagination, but even with another false start he would have been better than Scott.

Blocker Ratings
Average BRs (through four weeks)


Left Tackle


Left Guard


Center


Right Guard


Right Tackle

Sunday, April 06, 2008

In the Trenches: 2007 week three

Games Reviewed
Indianapolis Colts (30) at Houston Texans (24)
Cincinnati Bengals (21) at Seattle Seahawks (24)
Arizona Cardinals (23) at Baltimore Ravens (26)
San Diego Chargers (24) at Green Bay Packers (31)
New York Giants (24) at Washington Redskins (17)

Blocker Ratings
Left Tackle


Left Guard


Center


Right Guard


Right Tackle


Average BRs (through three weeks)

In the Trenches update

I should be posting the Trenches results from the five week-three games later today. Starting with week four, all games will be reviewed with what could be called Blocker Rating 2.0. I hadn't realized how close my "Simple Blocker Rating" was to the system used by NFL teams until I read a couple of recent articles at SI.com by former NFL lineman Ross Tucker. The way I'm rating the linemen now, however, is closer to the "Quality Rating" system I mentioned in an earlier post, which I believe will lead to even more accurate ratings. I'm considering referring to my stat from week four on as Blocker Effectiveness Rating. Not only would that differentiate it a bit from the rating used in the first three weeks, but it would emphasize that the rating system is privileging effectiveness over technique (Dr. Z talks about technique quite a bit when discussing his linemen ratings though he's never forthcoming with his exact "forumla.")

The first of Tucker's two insightful articles mentioned above is on his perceived lack of differences between elite and average linemen (hat tip: FO). On a related note, his other article ranks the offensive line positions by difficulty (hat tip: FO commenter mm). I believe Tucker overstates the amount of help given to right tackles as opposed to left tackles. In the brief time I was tracking double teams, left tackles did receive help on more plays than right tackles, but it wasn't a significant difference. As I have kept an eye on the situation in reviewing games since, I haven't noticed anything to change my mind. If anyone knows of any stats on this, please clue me in.

As I've alluded to in previous posts, centers and left guards definitely are involved in more double teams than anyone else on the line, often they're working together. Tucker definitely knows what he's talking about, but again I think he's overstating the issue to help make his case (and it is a tough case to rank the interior line positions by difficulty, since the differences in duties on any given play are so nuanced). The fact that the centers are double teaming on most plays can be a bit deceptive. Typically the center (or whichever other lineman he's working with) has to release from the double team and get to the second level. The ability to do this effectively is one of the main things that separates elite centers (e.g., Tom Nalen) from the rest. My rating system will ding the center if he is ineffective at either level. In pass protection, the center is seldom one-on-one, but on most passing plays it's he, more than anyone else, who must keep his head on the proverbial swivel. The best centers flow to where they're needed: out of the corner of their eye, they notice one of their guards (or, sometimes, one of the tackles) getting beat, and they shoot over there to help out, even if it's sometimes just to give the defensive linemen an all-important shove, thereby extending the play for the extra second it needs to have a chance.

If I was a GM divvying up my salary amongst the linemen from highest to lowest paid, my priorities would mirror Tucker's list pretty closely. I'd go left tackle, right tackle, then one of the guards (I'm not ready, yet, to take a stand on the left guard/right guard argument), center, then the other guard.

In his first article, Tucker brings up the issue of how many plays per game an elite lineman actually affects as opposed to an average lineman. He says "about one to two plays per game." My initial reaction was that it would be more like five to ten plays per game, but it's probably about five and not so high as ten. Anyway, Tucker has prompted me to run the averages by position earlier than I had expected to and I hope to look at those later today and see what they can tell us regarding effectiveness on a plays per game basis.

Although I disagreed with some of his points, Tucker's article is really great and has me more confident than ever concerning the efficacy of my rating system. I'm also thrilled that I decided to "try it out" on the 2007 Replay games because I've been able to iron out some of the wrinkles. I'm sure that when 2008 comes around and I have complete games to review and rate line play, I'll have a really good and consistent system to do that with. The only thing that can stop this project is the very really prospect of not having enough time to focus on it. We'll see what happens.

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

In the Trenches: 2007 week two

Games Reviewed
Cincinnati Bengals (51) at Cleveland Browns (45)
Minnesota Vikings (17) at Detroit Lions (20)
Oakland Raiders (20) at Denver Broncos (23)
Indianapolis Colts (22) at Tennessee Titans (20)
Seattle Seahawks (20) at Arizona Cardinals (23)

Top Linemen (by position)


Left Tackle
In this high-scoring shootout with the Bengals, Joe Thomas played like the rookie of the year candidate that he was. I'm looking forward to watching the Browns again to see if he keeps up this level of play. The only other left tackle with a BR over 9 was Seattle's Walter Jones (9.18). Unlike Thomas, who was tenacious and typically giving his all right up to the whistle, Jones often seemed to be getting by on talent and experience alone, doing just enough to get his job done.
  Arizona's Mike Gandy (8.93) stood out, playing exceptionally well for much of his game against the Seahawks before faltering a bit on the final few drives.
  Detroit's Jeff Backus (8.43) became the third left tackle to post a Run Blocker Rating (RBR) over 9 (9.38 RBR), following Chris Samuels (9.68 RBR) and Flozell Adams (9.44 RBR) who did so in week one. Unfortunately there was relatively little opportunity for him to run block in Mike Martz's pass-happy offense, and his overall BR was heavily affected by his shaky pass blocking.
  Indianapolis rookie Tony Ugoh (6.73) struggled in all phases of the game against the mighty Titans defense. He was the only left tackle this week to score below 8 and the first in the ten games reviewed so far to score below a 7 (last week's low BR for the position was Denver's Matt Lepsis's 7.96).

Left Guard
The second overall pick of the 2004 draft, Robert Gallery was supposed to be Oakland's starting left tackle for a decade. Instead, he has been considered a bust as he has been moved all over the line by his various coaches. Getting a chance to settle in at left guard, Gallery looked comfortable against the Broncos, consistently blocking well.
  Arizona's Reggie Wells (8.93) stood out with some really great blocks. If he always plays the way he did in this Seattle game, then I'd say he's one of the most underrated linemen in the NFL. We'll see what happens.
  Detroit's Edwin Mulitalo (8.86) was surprisingly stout in pass protection (9.63 PBR) but pretty bad in the running game (6.25 RBR).
  The most well-known left guards—Indianapolis's Ryan Lilja (8.78), Cleveland's Eric Steinbach (8.54), and Minnesota's Steve Hutchinson (8.54)—all had pretty average games, though each stood out at times with a number of key blocks.
  For the second week in a row, Cincinnati's Stacy Andrews (7.14) was the lowest rated left guard. In fact, he played worse against the Browns than he had against the Ravens. His 4.67 RBR was the second-worst I've recorded so far, ahead of only Jets right tackle Anthony Clement (4.17 against the Patriots in week 1).

Center
Cleveland's Hank Fraley was clearly the best center in the games reviewed this week; however, his 9.27 BR would have been just fifth last week. Center is still a high-scoring position, but whereas last week's lowest rated center (minimum ten plays) was 8.6, this week saw four centers score below that. And last week's top center, Tom Nalen, was just above that with a 8.67.
  Two centers had a BR below 8. Arizona rookie Lyle Sendlein (7.86), who got off to a rough start but played better as the game wore on. And Detroit's Dominic Raiola (7.86): another Lion lineman who struggled terribly with run blocking (5 RBR) against the Vikings.

Right Guard
The recently retired Benji Olson of the Titans was second among guards this week with a 9.27 BR. His 9.58 RBR was the best of any lineman.
  Detroit's Damien Woody's (9) looked like he knew it was a contract year all along, while Seattle's Chris Gray (8.98) and Oakland's Cooper Carlisle (8.94) also had good weeks.
  Minnesota's Artis Hicks (7.5) was the only right guard to rate below an 8.

Right Tackle
Last week, six of ten right tackles scored 9 or higher. This week brought none. David Stewart's quietly efficient 8.91BR led the way, while Cleveland's Kevin Shaffer (8.54) was the only other right tackle to rate above 8.5.
  Detroit's George Foster (7.14) was the lowest rated right tackle, and two others also had BRs below 8: Indianapolis's Ryan Diem (7.35), who clearly benefits (in terms of sacks allowed numbers) from having Peyton Manning as his quarterback, and Denver's Erik Pears (7.83) who dropped off quite a bit from his 8.7 performance against the Bills in week one.

One More Thing
Having reviewed offensive line play in detail for ten games now, one thing already stands out: the amount of yards lost because of linemen not even attempting to stay on their blocks, or linemen who just stop on a play because they feel like the QB should have gotten rid of the ball by then or the running back should have made his cut and shot through the hole already. Well, yes, maybe those things should have happened in the first four seconds of the play, but they didn't, and now you're man in running by you and slamming your QB into the ground, or he's caught the running back and stopped him for a five-yard gain, but it could have been ten yards or more if you'd just stayed with that defensive end and kept him slowed down for another step or two.
  I haven't counted the times I've seen these sort of things, but it's surprisingly high. If I were a coach or GM who wanted to improve his team's offense I would make this a point of emphasis. And even though I'm hesitant to make sweeping pronouncements about players on this account (again, I'm not tallying such instances), I make that "suggestion" with great confidence because it's apparent that this is more of a problem with some teams than it is with others.
  For instance, from what I have seen so far of the Browns and the Cardinals (and going back to week one, I'd have to say the Cowboys and Redskins as well), their linemen stand out as staying at it till the whistle blows. They always seem to be hustling and the only time they let up is when their job really is done, when it's clear their man will not be a factor in the play.
  With such a small sample I'm not going to finger particular players or teams that have exhibited this problem consistently so far, but you can bet that many of the players given to letting up early (though not all) have lower Blocker Ratings, even though it's not a specific criterion in the scoring.

Monday, March 31, 2008

In the Trenches: 2007 week one

Games Charted
Denver Broncos (15) at Buffalo Bills (14)
New England Patriots (38) at New York Jets (14)
New York Giants (35) at Dallas Cowboys (45)
Miami Dolphins (13) at Washington Redskins (16)
Baltimore Ravens (20) at Cincinnati Bengals (27)

Top Linemen (by position)


Left Tackle
First, a reminder that these ratings are based on NFL Replay and therefore they do not include the entire game as there are a handful of plays not shown. That said, Flozell Adams's 9.74 would be the highest single-game rating so far for a player with at least 20 plays. Patriots guard Stephen Neal posted a perfect 10 in the Super Bowl, but he was only in on 19 plays before leaving injured. The high rating seems fitting when you remember that it was Osi Umenyiora's"pair of zeros against the Cowboys" that was the impetus for Dr. Z taking a closer look at Adams's 2007 season and placing him on his All-Pro team.
  I have to mention Washington's Chris Samuels (9.2 BR). He was one of the most impressive linemen I saw and certainly the most enjoyable to watch. His 8.42 PBR is largely due to facing Miami's Jason Taylor, while his 9.68 RBR was the best of any lineman with more than twelve plays. He was a monster, an eraser on wheels.
  Baltimore's Jonathan Ogden (9.41) was playing great until he left the game injured. And Adam Terry (9.09) played well in his absence.
  Buffalo's Jason Peters (9.2) looked a little like a young Chris Samuels. Not as consistently good, but possessing that kind of power and mobility.
  And one of the pleasant surprises of week one: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (9.0). When Ferguson failed, he failed spectacularly so everyone could notice. But he played consistently well, and his run blocking was better than expected.
  Denver's Matt Lepsis (7.96) was the only left tackle to score below 8, though the Giants' David Diehl (8.04) came close.

Left Guard
Rich Seubert benefits from getting a good deal of double-team help from Shaun O'Hara. He also probably benefitted just a bit by this being the first game I charted before making a handful of tweaks to the rating system (it's not reverse-adjustable: I'd have to go back and re-chart the whole game). Both the Giants and Cowboys offensive lines played extremely well, with the exceptions of Diehl, who struggled with DeMarcus Ware, and Marc Columbo (8.46), who struggled some with Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck. Like all of the week's top linemen, Seubert posted a perfect Pass Blocker Rating (PBR), and the Giants ended up with 40 charted passing plays—nine more than any other team charted—boosting his overall rating.
  The lowest rated left guard was Stacy Andrews (8.1). He did great in pass protection (9.57) but looked plain awful in run blocking (6.32). No player was more frustrating to watch the Andrews, who sometimes looked at a loss out there. In case you're wondering about bias: this is a guy whose ability I was bullish on as a potential free agent. Could his poor performance be attributed to the Ravens' league-best rush defense? I wanted to think so.

Center
Tom Nalen looked like the perennial All-Pro he is. He really stood out for his smarts and relentlessness. Centers are frequently involved with double teams and so they definitely score higher than the other positions. Six of the ten starting centers rated higher than a 9, and the lowest rating was an otherwise respectable 8.6 posted by Baltimore's Mike Flynn. Nalen was one of three centers to post a perfect 10 in pass blocking (Buffalo's Melvin Fowler and New England's Dan Koppen were the others), but his 9.2 was fourth best in run blocking behind Dallas's Andre Gurode (9.44), Fowler (9.38), and Cincinnati's Eric Ghiaciuc (9.33).
  No center looked worse than Cincinnati reserve Alex Stepanovich (who was for a short time the top choice at center on my 2008 All Free Agent team). The entire Bengals line looked out of sync when he was in the game. After a few series, an injured Ghiaciuc returned and played well. (Don't worry: Stepanovich will play better in week two against the Browns.)

Right Guard
I wasn't sure whether to break the guard positions into left and right, or if I should just list the top two regardless of which side they play on. Didn't matter this week because Leonard Davis posted the second best score among guards, finishing just ahead of Baltimore's Jason Brown and Miami's Chris Liwienski (both at 9.4). Davis was one of five guards to post a perfect PBR, and his 8.89 RBR was fourth behind the Jets' Brandon Moore (10, but on only twelve run plays, while his PBR of 7.86 was the lowest of any guard), New England's Stephen Neal (8.97), and Liwienski (8.95).
  Liwienski (a left guard actually) was by far the least impressive lineman with a BR over 9. I doubt there'll be another week where he'll be showing up near the top at his position (then again, how many Dolphins games is NFL Replay likely to show?).
  On the other hand, in the two games of his I've charted, Stephen Neal has looked like the best mauler in the league. He doesn't have the mobility of heralded teammate Logan Mankins, but he's been more consistent in carrying out his assignments.
  The Giants' Chris Snee (9.11) was the third best right guard, while Washington's Randy Thomas (8.2) was surprisingly ineffective in the run game (7.1).
  The worst right guard was another one of my 2008 All Free Agent guys, Miami's Rex Hadnot (7.2). The fine reporters who cover the Dolphins liked to write about Hadnot's pulling ability. But if the Washington game was any indication, as often as not when Hadnot pulls he hits first the air and then the ground.

Right Tackle
Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped in when Jon Jansen went out with an injury. Jansen was on pace for a great game (9.3 on 15 plays) and Heyer came in and played up to Jansen's level. The
one thing to consider is that the Dolphin defense might have had something to do with Heyer's high score: Jason Taylor was primarily on the other side going against Washington's best lineman Chris Samuels.
  Just as he did in the Super Bowl, Kareem McKenzie (9.29) had a quietly great game, as did New England's Nick Kaczur (9.2).
  Only two right tackles had a BR of lower than 8. Cincinnati's Willie Anderson (7.0), who was limited to ten plays due injuries, and the Jets' Anthony Clement (7.5), whose pass blocking was fine (8.93) but whose running blocking was the worst yet seen: he was the only linemen with RBR under 5 (4.17).

One More Thing
Although five abbreviated games is too small of a sample size to make sweeping judgments, it looks like my Blocker Rating will correspond quite a bit to conventional wisdom. That's good. I'm not sure what I would make of ratings that contradicted all of what's supposed to be (though I certainly expect that one or two consensus opinions would be proved wrong). Pro Bowl-caliber players show up all over the top of the week 1 Blocker Ratings: Adams (whose false starts aren't counted), Nalen, Davis, Gurode, Ogden, Brown, Jansen, Neal, Samuels, Snee (that's half of the top 20 right there). But there's one guy who I've charted in both Super Bowl 42 and now in 2007 week 1 who's just not living up to his billing: Logan Mankins. I don't want to make a definitive statement at this time—I've only charted two of his games—but he certainly hasn't looked like the NFL's best guard. He does look amazing at times. He has actually "wowed" me with a couple of his pull blocks. But I haven't seen the consistency: not on the most important stage, in the Super Bowl against the Giants, and not in the opening game against the Jets, who fielded the league's worst defensive front last season.

In the Trenches: An Intro

For the past four Sundays the NFL Network has been "replaying" five games from each week of the 2007 season. I've decided to go back and look at the offensive line play in all of these games using the Blocker Rating system I introduced following the Super Bowl.

I hope that by charting the 2007 games I can work some of the kinks out of the system, and be more prepared to chart games and post about them throughout the 2008 season. I've made some slight modifications to my rating system, and really it's still in flux. I thought about a major overhaul, or possibly doing two ratings: an Effectiveness Rating, which would basically be the simple Blocker Rating I discussed in the Super Bowl post; and a Quality Rating, which would better account for "dominating" blocks that eliminate a defender from a play no matter what might happen, as well as successful blocks of more than one defender on a play, while discounting blocks that were part of a double team. But after charting one half of a game using the Quality Rating system, I could see that it would be so time consuming that there would be no way I could manage to keep at it over the course of a season. Instead, I'm experimenting with ways to account for some of this info in my simple rating system, without adding too much time to the process. And besides, I'm not entirely convinced that the Quality Rating would have yielded significantly better results.

Here are some of the key points to know about this rating system:

1. 10 is the highest rating, whether for a game or a season (in effect, a 10 is a "perfect game"). The early returns suggest that perfect pass blocking games will not be rare ("uncommon" would seem to be more accurate), but perfect run blocking games will be scarce.
2. Once I have enough data I will post the averages of each position to provide a context in which a player's perfomace/rating can more easily be judged. Eventually this may lead to a "value over average" rating.
3. Blocker Rating's main limitation is that it doesn't account for how much a lineman might be asked to do. For instance, a left tackle who effectively blocks, say, Dwight Freeney one-on-one on a pass play will score the same as the left guard and center who effectively double team Ed Johnson. Similarly, a right guard who whiffs on his pull block, allowing Gary Brackett to stuff his running back for no gain, will score as low as the right tackle whose backside cut block fails to take out Robert Mathis regardless of whether Mathis is able to assist on the tackle or not (the assumption being that anything can happen on a given play, and hence, every defender who can be taken out of the play should be in case, for example, the running back needs to cut back or a fumble needs to be recovered).
4. Something of a minor point, but in case someone wonders about this: run blocking and pass blocking are defined by whether a play is a run or a pass. That might seem obvious, but it could potentially be defined otherwise. For instance, the blocking on a play-action pass calls for run-blocking techniques, while a draw play typically has the linemen feigning pass protection. Screen passes are almost their own animal, calling for some linemen to pass block, while others only initially fake that before slipping out to get ahead of the receiver, calling for skills closer to those used in the running game.
5. The ratings are not defense adjusted. That is, there's no adjustment whether a guard is facing a tough task like, say, Albert Haynesworth, or if he's battling Claude Wroten all day. (I am going to collect some opponent data, and by the end of the season I should be able to comment on the results.)
6. After charting a couple of week one games I changed it so that passing plays of 2 or fewer seconds are no longer included. Aborted plays are still not counted and neither are false starts, but plays with offensive holding are now charted, as are any plays where the penalty is on the defense (although if an offensive lineman is beat because the defensive man was offsides, it's not counted against him).
7. Games charted using NFL Replay are a necessity as long as I have a day job to attend to. The final Blocker Ratings from these games are not "official" in that these broadcasts don't show every play. However, enough plays are shown to get a representative sample of a player's performance, especially as the total plays accumulate over the course of a season.
8. I can't reiterate enough: This is a very simple rating system, so that I actually have enough time to chart as many games as I can record. Although quite a bit is left unaccounted for, I've seen enough already to believe that my Blocker Rating gives a good indication of how well, or poorly, a linemen has played. If I continue to be pleased with the results, I might eventually recruit other volunteers to chart games so that only full games are charted and so that a season can be completely captured. But I won't be doing that until I'm fully comfortable with this and have had more time to tweak the rating system.

There are probably other key points escaping me right now. I'll update this post as they occur to me.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Super Bowl 42: Of the MVP and Blocker Ratings

When a quarterback engineers a dramatic Super Bowl-winning drive there's a pretty good chance he'll be the game's MVP. Eli Manning's 55% completion percentage is nothing to get excited about, but his 7.5 yards per attempt is better than average. He accounted for two touchdowns against only one interception, which wasn't even his fault (although he did throw at least a couple of other passes that could have been intercepted and would have been his fault).
 But Manning wouldn't have gotten my MVP vote if I had one. The difference in the game wasn't the Giants offense which scored 17 points, about what many expected they would, but the defense that held the Patriots offense, in perfect conditions, to only 14 points, about twenty fewer than many expected.
 The biggest reason for the Giants defensive success was the pressure they put on Tom Brady. New York's five sacks came from four different players and there were others, from Osi Umeniora to Aaron Ross, involved in the hurries and hits. Justin Tuck led the way with his two sacks and a forced fumble. He also contributed five solo tackles and an assist. While that might not be a huge game exactly, it was the defense's stand out performance, and I would have voted for Tuck as a way to recognize what the Giant defense accomplished.
 The Giants seemed to dominate the Pats offensive line and it got me thinking about a blocker rating system I kicked around in my head for a few months during the season. I never got around to field testing that idea, but now, with a Super Bowl that in many ways came down to line play, I've set down some parameters and charted my first game using my Simple Blocker Rating system (SBR).
 I'm sure there are others, but off the top of my head the only offensive line ratings (player-specific, not as a unit like Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards) I can think of that fans have at least some access to are: Dr. Z's mysterious method which he uses in determining his All-Pro team each year; Yakuza Rich's statistical ranking based on yardage; the percentage-based “grading out” popular with college sites.
 SBR is based on success and not excellence. A cut block on the backside of a run that may or may not have been enough if the run had broken differently is weighted the same as a block by a pulling guard that pancakes his man and opens a hole for the running back. This is one of the things that makes this rating “simple.” But I have chosen to keep it this way in order to limit the value judgments needed on my part. There are two main benefits for this: first, it makes the rating more objective by lessening the need to interpret responsibility or pinpoint the exact effectiveness of a block; second, it cuts down the time required to chart a game, which means this is more likely something I can continue to do.
 Again, SBR doesn't consider technique, only success. In determining success it errs on the side of giving credit to the blocker. As such SBR is almost entirely a descriptive stat; it's probably limited in its ability to predict future results. Just as a quarterback's passing stats are affected by the quality of his receivers, his blockers, and even the threat posed by his running back, a lineman's blocker rating will be affected by things outside of his control such as the kinds of plays called (i.e, a lineman will rate better if his team calls a lot of wide receiver screens and quick slants) and the quality of the defender he's working against,
 Since this is the first and only game I've charted using SBR there's no context for the numbers. I expect that over the course of a season certain positions, such as left tackle, would have lower numbers since they're often going up against the best pass rushers and are less likely than their linemates to be part of a double team.
 Finally, before presenting the table, a few notes and observations. 10 is a perfect score. I charted tight ends and fullbacks but not running backs or wide receivers. All-Pro guard Logan Mankins struggled as much with Tuck, et al., as it seemed he did. Pats backup guard Russ Hochstein wasn't quite as bad as I thought while watching the game, but he was a huge drop off from Stephen Neal who was pitching a shutout. New York's Shaun O'Hara had been perfect in pass blocking before struggling a bit on the last drive. Similarly David Diehl and Rich Seubert struggled in pass protection late in the game, but played solidly prior to that. The Giants' tight ends were much better, with Kyle Brady in particular hurting the Pats in the running game. As might be expected, the Pats kept Ben Watson in to pass protect much more later in the game. NY Fullback Madison Hedgecock was less effective than I would have guessed.

Name

Team

Pos

SBR

Run

Pass

Plays

David Diehl

NYG

LT

8.19

7.82

8.42

61

Matt Light

NE

LT

8.55

6.66

9.07

69

Rich Seubert

NYG

LG

8.85

8.69

8.94

61

Logan Mankins

NE

LG

8.55

8.66

8.51

69

Shaun O'Hara

NYG

C

8.85

8.26

9.21

61

Dan Koppen

NE

C

9.27

8.66

9.44

69

Chris Snee

NYG

RG

9.18

9.13

9.21

61

Stephen Neal

NE

RG

10.00

10.00

10.00

19

Russ Hochstein

NE

RG

8.80

10.00

8.60

50

Kareem McKenzie

NYG

RT

9.50

9.13

9.73

61

Nick Kaczur

NE

RT

8.98

9.33

8.88

69

Kevin Boss

NYG

TE

9.62

9.50

10.00

27

Ben Watson

NE

TE

8.33

6.66

10.00

24

Michael Matthews

NYG

TE

9.16

9.09

10.00

13

Kyle Brady

NE

TE

6.19

5.33

8.33

21

Mike Vrabel

NE

TE

10.00

10.00

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3

Madison Hedgecock

NYG

FB

7.69

7.22

10.00

13

Heath Evans

NE

FB

5.00

5.00

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