In the Trenches: 2007 week one

Games Charted
Denver Broncos (15) at Buffalo Bills (14)
New England Patriots (38) at New York Jets (14)
New York Giants (35) at Dallas Cowboys (45)
Miami Dolphins (13) at Washington Redskins (16)
Baltimore Ravens (20) at Cincinnati Bengals (27)

Top Linemen (by position)


Left Tackle
First, a reminder that these ratings are based on NFL Replay and therefore they do not include the entire game as there are a handful of plays not shown. That said, Flozell Adams's 9.74 would be the highest single-game rating so far for a player with at least 20 plays. Patriots guard Stephen Neal posted a perfect 10 in the Super Bowl, but he was only in on 19 plays before leaving injured. The high rating seems fitting when you remember that it was Osi Umenyiora's"pair of zeros against the Cowboys" that was the impetus for Dr. Z taking a closer look at Adams's 2007 season and placing him on his All-Pro team.
  I have to mention Washington's Chris Samuels (9.2 BR). He was one of the most impressive linemen I saw and certainly the most enjoyable to watch. His 8.42 PBR is largely due to facing Miami's Jason Taylor, while his 9.68 RBR was the best of any lineman with more than twelve plays. He was a monster, an eraser on wheels.
  Baltimore's Jonathan Ogden (9.41) was playing great until he left the game injured. And Adam Terry (9.09) played well in his absence.
  Buffalo's Jason Peters (9.2) looked a little like a young Chris Samuels. Not as consistently good, but possessing that kind of power and mobility.
  And one of the pleasant surprises of week one: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (9.0). When Ferguson failed, he failed spectacularly so everyone could notice. But he played consistently well, and his run blocking was better than expected.
  Denver's Matt Lepsis (7.96) was the only left tackle to score below 8, though the Giants' David Diehl (8.04) came close.

Left Guard
Rich Seubert benefits from getting a good deal of double-team help from Shaun O'Hara. He also probably benefitted just a bit by this being the first game I charted before making a handful of tweaks to the rating system (it's not reverse-adjustable: I'd have to go back and re-chart the whole game). Both the Giants and Cowboys offensive lines played extremely well, with the exceptions of Diehl, who struggled with DeMarcus Ware, and Marc Columbo (8.46), who struggled some with Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck. Like all of the week's top linemen, Seubert posted a perfect Pass Blocker Rating (PBR), and the Giants ended up with 40 charted passing plays—nine more than any other team charted—boosting his overall rating.
  The lowest rated left guard was Stacy Andrews (8.1). He did great in pass protection (9.57) but looked plain awful in run blocking (6.32). No player was more frustrating to watch the Andrews, who sometimes looked at a loss out there. In case you're wondering about bias: this is a guy whose ability I was bullish on as a potential free agent. Could his poor performance be attributed to the Ravens' league-best rush defense? I wanted to think so.

Center
Tom Nalen looked like the perennial All-Pro he is. He really stood out for his smarts and relentlessness. Centers are frequently involved with double teams and so they definitely score higher than the other positions. Six of the ten starting centers rated higher than a 9, and the lowest rating was an otherwise respectable 8.6 posted by Baltimore's Mike Flynn. Nalen was one of three centers to post a perfect 10 in pass blocking (Buffalo's Melvin Fowler and New England's Dan Koppen were the others), but his 9.2 was fourth best in run blocking behind Dallas's Andre Gurode (9.44), Fowler (9.38), and Cincinnati's Eric Ghiaciuc (9.33).
  No center looked worse than Cincinnati reserve Alex Stepanovich (who was for a short time the top choice at center on my 2008 All Free Agent team). The entire Bengals line looked out of sync when he was in the game. After a few series, an injured Ghiaciuc returned and played well. (Don't worry: Stepanovich will play better in week two against the Browns.)

Right Guard
I wasn't sure whether to break the guard positions into left and right, or if I should just list the top two regardless of which side they play on. Didn't matter this week because Leonard Davis posted the second best score among guards, finishing just ahead of Baltimore's Jason Brown and Miami's Chris Liwienski (both at 9.4). Davis was one of five guards to post a perfect PBR, and his 8.89 RBR was fourth behind the Jets' Brandon Moore (10, but on only twelve run plays, while his PBR of 7.86 was the lowest of any guard), New England's Stephen Neal (8.97), and Liwienski (8.95).
  Liwienski (a left guard actually) was by far the least impressive lineman with a BR over 9. I doubt there'll be another week where he'll be showing up near the top at his position (then again, how many Dolphins games is NFL Replay likely to show?).
  On the other hand, in the two games of his I've charted, Stephen Neal has looked like the best mauler in the league. He doesn't have the mobility of heralded teammate Logan Mankins, but he's been more consistent in carrying out his assignments.
  The Giants' Chris Snee (9.11) was the third best right guard, while Washington's Randy Thomas (8.2) was surprisingly ineffective in the run game (7.1).
  The worst right guard was another one of my 2008 All Free Agent guys, Miami's Rex Hadnot (7.2). The fine reporters who cover the Dolphins liked to write about Hadnot's pulling ability. But if the Washington game was any indication, as often as not when Hadnot pulls he hits first the air and then the ground.

Right Tackle
Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped in when Jon Jansen went out with an injury. Jansen was on pace for a great game (9.3 on 15 plays) and Heyer came in and played up to Jansen's level. The
one thing to consider is that the Dolphin defense might have had something to do with Heyer's high score: Jason Taylor was primarily on the other side going against Washington's best lineman Chris Samuels.
  Just as he did in the Super Bowl, Kareem McKenzie (9.29) had a quietly great game, as did New England's Nick Kaczur (9.2).
  Only two right tackles had a BR of lower than 8. Cincinnati's Willie Anderson (7.0), who was limited to ten plays due injuries, and the Jets' Anthony Clement (7.5), whose pass blocking was fine (8.93) but whose running blocking was the worst yet seen: he was the only linemen with RBR under 5 (4.17).

One More Thing
Although five abbreviated games is too small of a sample size to make sweeping judgments, it looks like my Blocker Rating will correspond quite a bit to conventional wisdom. That's good. I'm not sure what I would make of ratings that contradicted all of what's supposed to be (though I certainly expect that one or two consensus opinions would be proved wrong). Pro Bowl-caliber players show up all over the top of the week 1 Blocker Ratings: Adams (whose false starts aren't counted), Nalen, Davis, Gurode, Ogden, Brown, Jansen, Neal, Samuels, Snee (that's half of the top 20 right there). But there's one guy who I've charted in both Super Bowl 42 and now in 2007 week 1 who's just not living up to his billing: Logan Mankins. I don't want to make a definitive statement at this time—I've only charted two of his games—but he certainly hasn't looked like the NFL's best guard. He does look amazing at times. He has actually "wowed" me with a couple of his pull blocks. But I haven't seen the consistency: not on the most important stage, in the Super Bowl against the Giants, and not in the opening game against the Jets, who fielded the league's worst defensive front last season.

In the Trenches: An Intro

For the past four Sundays the NFL Network has been "replaying" five games from each week of the 2007 season. I've decided to go back and look at the offensive line play in all of these games using the Blocker Rating system I introduced following the Super Bowl.

I hope that by charting the 2007 games I can work some of the kinks out of the system, and be more prepared to chart games and post about them throughout the 2008 season. I've made some slight modifications to my rating system, and really it's still in flux. I thought about a major overhaul, or possibly doing two ratings: an Effectiveness Rating, which would basically be the simple Blocker Rating I discussed in the Super Bowl post; and a Quality Rating, which would better account for "dominating" blocks that eliminate a defender from a play no matter what might happen, as well as successful blocks of more than one defender on a play, while discounting blocks that were part of a double team. But after charting one half of a game using the Quality Rating system, I could see that it would be so time consuming that there would be no way I could manage to keep at it over the course of a season. Instead, I'm experimenting with ways to account for some of this info in my simple rating system, without adding too much time to the process. And besides, I'm not entirely convinced that the Quality Rating would have yielded significantly better results.

Here are some of the key points to know about this rating system:

1. 10 is the highest rating, whether for a game or a season (in effect, a 10 is a "perfect game"). The early returns suggest that perfect pass blocking games will not be rare ("uncommon" would seem to be more accurate), but perfect run blocking games will be scarce.
2. Once I have enough data I will post the averages of each position to provide a context in which a player's perfomace/rating can more easily be judged. Eventually this may lead to a "value over average" rating.
3. Blocker Rating's main limitation is that it doesn't account for how much a lineman might be asked to do. For instance, a left tackle who effectively blocks, say, Dwight Freeney one-on-one on a pass play will score the same as the left guard and center who effectively double team Ed Johnson. Similarly, a right guard who whiffs on his pull block, allowing Gary Brackett to stuff his running back for no gain, will score as low as the right tackle whose backside cut block fails to take out Robert Mathis regardless of whether Mathis is able to assist on the tackle or not (the assumption being that anything can happen on a given play, and hence, every defender who can be taken out of the play should be in case, for example, the running back needs to cut back or a fumble needs to be recovered).
4. Something of a minor point, but in case someone wonders about this: run blocking and pass blocking are defined by whether a play is a run or a pass. That might seem obvious, but it could potentially be defined otherwise. For instance, the blocking on a play-action pass calls for run-blocking techniques, while a draw play typically has the linemen feigning pass protection. Screen passes are almost their own animal, calling for some linemen to pass block, while others only initially fake that before slipping out to get ahead of the receiver, calling for skills closer to those used in the running game.
5. The ratings are not defense adjusted. That is, there's no adjustment whether a guard is facing a tough task like, say, Albert Haynesworth, or if he's battling Claude Wroten all day. (I am going to collect some opponent data, and by the end of the season I should be able to comment on the results.)
6. After charting a couple of week one games I changed it so that passing plays of 2 or fewer seconds are no longer included. Aborted plays are still not counted and neither are false starts, but plays with offensive holding are now charted, as are any plays where the penalty is on the defense (although if an offensive lineman is beat because the defensive man was offsides, it's not counted against him).
7. Games charted using NFL Replay are a necessity as long as I have a day job to attend to. The final Blocker Ratings from these games are not "official" in that these broadcasts don't show every play. However, enough plays are shown to get a representative sample of a player's performance, especially as the total plays accumulate over the course of a season.
8. I can't reiterate enough: This is a very simple rating system, so that I actually have enough time to chart as many games as I can record. Although quite a bit is left unaccounted for, I've seen enough already to believe that my Blocker Rating gives a good indication of how well, or poorly, a linemen has played. If I continue to be pleased with the results, I might eventually recruit other volunteers to chart games so that only full games are charted and so that a season can be completely captured. But I won't be doing that until I'm fully comfortable with this and have had more time to tweak the rating system.

There are probably other key points escaping me right now. I'll update this post as they occur to me.

2008 NFL Mock Draft

ROUND ONE
1. Miami Dolphins
Chris Long, DE/OLB, Virginia

2. St. Louis Rams
Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

3. Atlanta Falcons
Jake Long, OT, Michigan

4. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

6. New York Jets
Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio St.

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco 49ers)
Derrick Harvey, DE/OLB, Florida

8. Baltimore Ravens
Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

10. New Orleans Saints
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

11. Buffalo Bills
Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

12. Denver Broncos
Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

13. Carolina Panthers
Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

14. Chicago Bears
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

15. Detroit Lions
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

16. Arizona Cardinals
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

17. Minnesota Vikings
Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson

18. Houston Texans
Keith Rivers, OLB, USC

19. Philadelphia Eagles
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

21. Washington Redskins
Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland Browns)
Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Branden Albert, G/OT, Virginia

24. Tennessee Titans
Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

25. Seattle Seahawks
DeSean Jackson, WR, California

26. San Diego Chargers
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

28. Dallas Cowboys
Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

29. Green Bay Packers
Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts)
Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida

31. New York Giants
Dan Connor, LB, Penn State

ROUND TWO
32. Miami Dolphins
Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware

33. St. Louis Rams
James Hardy, WR, Indiana

37. Atlanta Falcons (from Oakland Raiders)
Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame

35. Kansas City Chiefs
Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech

36. New York Jets
Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers

34. Atlanta Falcons
Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

38. Baltimore Ravens
Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas

39. San Francisco 49ers
Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Purdue

40. New Orleans Saints
Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue

41. Buffalo Bills
Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona

42. Denver Broncos
Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt

43. Carolina Panthers
Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, Auburn

44. Chicago Bears
Chad Henne, QB, Michigan

45. Detroit Lions
Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee

46. Cincinnati Bengals
Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC

47. Minnesota Vikings
Dre Moore, DT, Maryland

48. Atlanta Falcons (from Houston Texans)
Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland

49. Philadelphia Eagles
Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska

50. Arizona Cardinals
Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas

51. Washington Redskins
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

52. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DeMario Pressley, DT, North Carolina State

53. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sam Baker, OT/G, USC

54. Tennessee Titans
Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina

55. Seattle Seahawks
John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame

56. Green Bay Packers (from Cleveland Browns)
Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech

57. Miami Dolphins (from San Diego Chargers)
Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan

58. Jacksonville Jaguars
Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa

59. Indianapolis Colts
Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia

60. Green Bay Packers
Fred Davis, TE, USC

61. Dallas Cowboys
Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State

62. New York Giants
Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

63. New England Patriots
Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn

2008 NFL Draft position rankings

OFFENSE
Quarterbak
1. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
2. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
3. Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
4. Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
5. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee
6. Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Andre’ Woodson, QB, Kentucky
9. Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon
10. Adam Tafralis, QB, San Jose State
11. Paul Smith, QB, Tulsa
12. Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii
13. Matt Flynn, QB, LSU
14. Sam Keller, QB, Nebraska
15. Kevin O'Connell, QB, San Diego State

Running Back
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
3. Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
4. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
5. Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
6. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
7. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
8. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
9. Thomas Brown, RB, Georgia
10. Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
11. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
12. Justin Forsett, RB, California
13. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan
14. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
15. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
16. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Mississippi
17. Adrian Smith, RB, Bethel College
18. Xavier Omon, RB, NW Missouri State
19. Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma
20. Chauncey Washington, RB, USC
21. Anthony Alridge, RB, Houston
22. Dantrell Savage, RB, Oklahoma State
23. Marcus Thomas, RB, UTEP
24. Ryan Torain, RB, Arizona State
25. Tim Hightower, RB, Richmond

Fullback
1. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
2. Peyton Hillis, FB, Arkansas
3. Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
4. Chris Brown, TE, Tennessee
5. Carl Stewart, FB, Auburn
6. Jacob Hester, FB, LSU
7. Mike Cox, FB, Georgia Tech
8. Julius Crosslin, FB, Oklahoma State
9. Jed Collins, FB, Washington State
10. Brandon McAnderson, RB, Kansas
11. Rolly Lumbala, FB, Idaho
12. Marcel Reece, FB, Washington
13. Jehuu Caulcrick, FB, Michigan State
14. Jason Goode, FB, Maryland
15. Justin Valentin, FB, Minnesota

Wide Receiver
1. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
2. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
3. James Hardy, WR, Indiana
4. Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
5. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
6. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
7. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
8. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
9. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
10. Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
11. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
12. DeSean Jackson, WR, California
13. Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
14. Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan
15. Will Franklin, WR, Missouri
16. Early Doucet, WR, LSU
17. Dexter Jackson, WR, Appalachian State
18. Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
19. Jaymar Johnson, WR, Jackson State
20. Danny Amendola, WR, Texas Tech
21. Keenan Burton, WR, Kentucky
22. Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina
23. Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
24. Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
25. Darius Reynaud, WR, West Virginia
26. Josh Morgan, WR, Viginia Tech
27. Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State
28. Jason Rivers, WR, Hawaii
29. Taj Smith, WR, Syracuse
30. Justin Harper, WR, Viginia Tech
30. Arman Shields, WR, Richmond

Tight End
1. John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
2. Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
3. Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
4. Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
5. Fred Davis, TE, USC
6. Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
7. Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky
8. Craig Stevens, TE, California
9. Darrell Strong, TE, Pittsburgh
10. Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
11. Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
12. Joey Haynos, TE, Maryland
13. Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
14. Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville
15. Tom Santi, TE, Virginia
16. Mike Peterson, TE, NW Missouri State
17. Derek Fine, TE, Kansas
18. Cole Bennett, TE, Auburn
19. Adam Bishop, TE, Nevada
20. Kolomoma Kapanui, TE, West Texas A&M

Offensive Tackle
1. Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
3. Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
4. Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska
5. Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
6. Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
7. Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
8. Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
9. John Greco, OT, Toledo
10. Oneil Cousins, OT, UTEP
11. Tony Hills, OT, Texas
12. Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
13. Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson
14. Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State
15. David Hale, OT, Weber St.

Offensive Guard
1. Branden Albert, G, Virginia
2. Sam Baker, OT, USC
3. Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
4. Eric Young, G, Tennessee
5. Jeremy Zuttah, OT/C, Rutgers
6. Drew Radovich, G, USC
7. Chilo Rachal, G, USC
8. Donald Thomas, G, Connecticut
9. Chad Rinehart, G, Northern Iowa
10. Chris McDuffie, G, Clemson
11. Will Arnold, G, LSU
12. Chester Adams, G, Georgia
13. Robert Felton, G, Arkansas
14. Mike McGlynn, G, Pittsburgh
15. Andrew Crummey, G, Maryland
16. John Booker, G, San Jose State
17. Shannon Tevaga, G, UCLA
18. Justin Britt, G, Alabama
19. Kerry Brown, G, Appalachian State
20. Adam Kraus, G, Michigan

Center
1. Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
2. John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
3. Fernando Velasco, C, Georgia
4. Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
5. Cody Wallace, C, Texas A&M
6. Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green
7. Eric Scott, C, Kentucky
8. Adam Spieker, C, Missouri
9. Drew Miller, G, Florida
10. Matt Spanos, C, USC

DEFENSE
Defensive End
1. Chris Long, DE, Virginia
2. Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
3. Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
4. Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
5. Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
6. Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
7. Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
8. Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
9. Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
10. Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
11. Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
12. Kendall Langford, DE, Hampton
13. Darrell Robertson, DE, Georgia Tech
14. Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers
15. Xavier Mitchell, DE, Tennessee
16. Rob Jackson, DE, Kansas State
17. Titus Brown, DE, Mississippi State
18. Wallace Gilberry, DE, Alabama
19. Marcus Dixon, DT, Hampton
20. Angelo Craig, DE, Cincinnati

Defensive Tackle
1. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
2. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
3. Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
4. Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
5. Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
6. Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
7. Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
8. DeMario Pressley, DT, North Carolina State
9. Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
10. Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
11. Lorenzo Williams, DT, Missouri
12. Frank Morton, DT, Tulane
13. Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M
14. Nick Hayden, DT, Wisconsin
15. Frank Okam, DT, Texas
16. Letroy Guion, DT, Florida State
17. Jason Shirley, DT, Fresno State
18. George Chukwu, DT, Rice
19. Maurice Murray, DT, New Mexico St
20. Josh Thompson, DT, Auburn

Outside Linebacker
1. Keith Rivers, LB, USC
2. Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
3. Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
4. Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland
5. Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
6. Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
7. Wesley Woodyard, LB, Kentucky
8. Shawn Crable, DE, Michigan
9. Jordon Dizon, LB, Colorado
10. Ezra Butler, LB, Nevada
11. Ali Highsmith, LB, LSU
12. Bruce Davis, DE, UCLA
13. Gary Guyton, LB, Georgia Tech
14. Stanford Kegler, LB, Purdue
15. Steven Octavien, OLB, Nebraska
16. Vince Redd, DE, Liberty
17. Robert Killebrew, LB, Texas
18. Jameel McClain, DE, Syracuse
19. Chase Ortiz, DE, TCU
20. Geno Hayes, LB, Florida State

Middle Linebacker
1. Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma
2. Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
3. Jonathan Goff, LB, Vanderbilt
4. Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
5. Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
6. Jolonn Dunbar, LB, Boston College
7. Rodrick Johnson, LB, Oklahoma State
8. Danny Lansanah, LB, Connecticut
9. Vince Hall, LB, Virginia Tech
10. Beau Bell, LB, UNLV
11. Ben Moffitt, LB, South Florida
12. Anthony Hoke, LB, Cincinnati
13. J Leman, LB, Illinois
14. Joe Mays, LB, North Dakota State
15. Steve Allen, LB, West Texas A&M

Cornerback
1. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
2. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
3. Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
4. Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
5. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
6. Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
7. Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
8. Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
9. Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
10. Justin King, CB, Penn State
11. Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
12. Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
13. Dwight Lowery, CB, San Jose State
14. Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
15. Zach Bowman, CB, Nebraska
16. Tyvon Branch, CB, Connecticut
17. Jonathan Wilhite, CB, Auburn
18. Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
19. Rodney Van, CB, UCLA
20. Jack Williams, CB, Kent State
21. Jack Ikegwuonu, CB, Wisconsin
22. Orlando Scandrick, CB, Boise St.
23. Justin Tryon, CB, Arizona State
24. Terrance Wheatley, CB, Colorado
25. Brandon Carr, CB, Grand Valley State
26. Trey Brown, CB, UCLA
27. Darnell Terrell, CB, Missouri
28. Marcus Walker, CB, Oklahoma
29. Simeon Castille, CB, Alabama
30. Matterral Richardson, CB, Arkansas

Safety
1. Josh Barrett, SS, Arizona State
2. Kenny Phillips, SS, Miami
3. Tyrell Johnson, SS, Arkansas State
4. David Roach, SS, TCU
5. Thomas DeCoud, FS, California
6. DaJuan Morgan, FS, North Carolina State
7. Reggie Smith, FS, Oklahoma
8. Marcus Griffin, FS, Texas
9. Tom Zbikowski, SS, Notre Dame
10. Jamar Adams, SS, Michigan
11. Dominique Barber, FS, Minnesota
12. Jamie Silva, SS, Boston College
13. Caleb Campbell, SS, Army
14. Quintin Demps, SS, UTEP
15. Michael Hinton, CB, Mankato State
16. D.J. Parker, FS, Virginia Tech
17. Jonathan Hefney, CB, Tennessee
18. Michael Grant, FS, Arkansas
19. Craig Steltz, SS, LSU
20. Nehemiah Warrick, SS, Michigan State

2008 NFL Mock Draft

ROUND ONE
1. Miami Dolphins
Chris Long, DE/OLB, Virginia

2. St. Louis Rams
Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio St.

3. Atlanta Falcons
Jake Long, OT, Michigan

4. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

6. New York Jets
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco 49ers)
Derrick Harvey, DE/OLB, Florida

8. Baltimore Ravens
Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

10. New Orleans Saints
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

11. Buffalo Bills
Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

12. Denver Broncos
Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

13. Carolina Panthers
Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

14. Chicago Bears
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

15. Detroit Lions
Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

16. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

17. Minnesota Vikings
Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson

18. Houston Texans
Keith Rivers, OLB, USC

19. Philadelphia Eagles
Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

21. Washington Redskins
Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland Browns)
Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Branden Albert, G/OT, Virginia

24. Tennessee Titans
James Hardy, WR, Indiana

25. Seattle Seahawks
Sam Baker, OT/G, USC

26. San Diego Chargers
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

28. Dallas Cowboys
Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

29. Green Bay Packers
Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts)
Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida

31. New York Giants
Dan Connor, LB, Penn State

ROUND TWO
32. Miami Dolphins
Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware

33. St. Louis Rams
DeSean Jackson, WR, California

37. Oakland Raiders
Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame

35. Kansas City Chiefs
Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech

36. New York Jets
Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers

34. Atlanta Falcons
Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

38. Baltimore Ravens
Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas

39. San Francisco 49ers
Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Purdue

40. New Orleans Saints
Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue

41. Buffalo Bills
Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt

42. Denver Broncos
Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona

43. Carolina Panthers
Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC

44. Chicago Bears
Chad Henne, QB, Michigan

45. Detroit Lions
Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland

46. Cincinnati Bengals
Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas

47. Minnesota Vikings
Fred Davis, TE, USC

48. Atlanta Falcons (from Houston Texans)
Dre Moore, DT, Maryland

49. Philadelphia Eagles
Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska

50. Arizona Cardinals
Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, Auburn

51. Washington Redskins
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

52. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California

53. Pittsburgh Steelers
Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa

54. Tennessee Titans
DeMario Pressley, DT, North Carolina State

55. Seattle Seahawks
John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame

56. Green Bay Packers (from Cleveland Browns)
Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech

57. Miami Dolphins (from San Diego Chargers)
Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan

58. Jacksonville Jaguars
Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn

59. Indianapolis Colts
Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia

60. Green Bay Packers
Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee

61. Dallas Cowboys
Justin King, CB, Penn State

62. New York Giants
Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

63. New England Patriots
Trae Williams, CB, South Florida

2008 NFL Draft position rankings

OFFENSE
Quarterbak
1. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
2. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
3. Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
4. Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
5. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee
6. Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Andre’ Woodson, QB, Kentucky
9. Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon
10. Adam Tafralis, QB, San Jose State
11. Paul Smith, QB, Tulsa
12. Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii
13. Matt Flynn, QB, LSU
14. Sam Keller, QB, Nebraska
15. Nick Hill, QB, Southern Illinois

Running Back
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
3. Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
4. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
5. Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
6. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
7. Thomas Brown, RB, Georgia
8. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
9. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
10. Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
11. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
12. Justin Forsett, RB, California
13. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan
14. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
15. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
16. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Mississippi
17. Adrian Smith, RB, Bethel College
18. Xavier Omon, RB, NW Missouri State
19. Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma
20. Chauncey Washington, RB, USC
21. Anthony Alridge, RB, Houston
22. Dantrell Savage, RB, Oklahoma State
23. Marcus Thomas, RB, UTEP
24. Ryan Torain, RB, Arizona State
25. Tim Hightower, RB, Richmond

Fullback
1. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
2. Peyton Hillis, FB, Arkansas
3. Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
4. Chris Brown, TE, Tennessee
5. Carl Stewart, FB, Auburn
6. Jacob Hester, FB, LSU
7. Julius Crosslin, FB, Oklahoma State
8. Brandon McAnderson, RB, Kansas
9. Mike Cox, FB, Georgia Tech
10. Adam Ballard, FB, Navy
11. Rolly Lumbala, FB, Idaho

Wide Receiver
1. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
2. James Hardy, WR, Indiana
3. Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
4. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
5. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
6. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
7. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
8. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
9. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
10. Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
11. DeSean Jackson, WR, California
12. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
13. Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan
14. Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State
15. Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
16. Early Doucet, WR, LSU
17. Dexter Jackson, WR, Appalachian State
18. Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
19. Jaymar Johnson, WR, Jackson State
20. Danny Amendola, WR, Texas Tech
21. Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
22. Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
23. Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina
24. Darius Reynaud, WR, West Virginia
25. Jason Rivers, WR, Hawaii
26. Josh Morgan, WR, Viginia Tech
27. Taj Smith, WR, Syracuse
28. Justin Harper, WR, Viginia Tech
29. Mario Urrutia, WR, Louisville
30. Davone Bess, WR, Hawaii

Tight End
1. John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
2. Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
3. Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
4. Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
5. Fred Davis, TE, USC
6. Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
7. Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky
8. Craig Stevens, TE, California
9. Darrell Strong, TE, Pittsburgh
10. Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
11. Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
12. Joey Haynos, TE, Maryland
13. Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
14. Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville
15. Tom Santi, TE, Virginia
16. Mike Peterson, TE, NW Missouri State
17. Derek Fine, TE, Kansas
18. Cole Bennett, TE, Auburn
19. Adam Bishop, TE, Nevada
20. Kolomoma Kapanui, TE, West Texas A&M

Offensive Tackle
1. Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
3. Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
4. Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska
5. Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
6. Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
7. Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
8. Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
9. John Greco, OT, Toledo
10. Oneil Cousins, OT, UTEP
11. Heath Benedict, OT, Newberry
12. Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State
13. Tony Hills, OT, Texas
14. Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
15. Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson

Offensive Guard
1. Branden Albert, G, Virginia
2. Sam Baker, OT, USC
3. Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
4. Eric Young, G, Tennessee
5. Jeremy Zuttah, OT/C, Rutgers
6. Drew Radovich, G, USC
7. Chilo Rachal, G, USC
8. Donald Thomas, G, Connecticut
9. Chad Rinehart, G, Northern Iowa
10. Chris McDuffie, G, Clemson
11. Will Arnold, G, LSU
12. Chester Adams, G, Georgia
13. Robert Felton, G, Arkansas
14. Mike McGlynn, G, Pittsburgh
15. Andrew Crummey, G, Maryland
16. John Booker, G, San Jose State
17. Shannon Tevaga, G, UCLA
18. Justin Britt, G, Alabama
19. Kerry Brown, G, Appalachian State
20. Adam Kraus, G, Michigan

Center
1. Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
2. John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
3. Fernando Velasco, C, Georgia
4. Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
5. Cody Wallace, C, Texas A&M
6. Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green
7. Eric Scott, C, Kentucky
8. Adam Spieker, C, Missouri
9. Drew Miller, G, Florida
10. Matt Spanos, C, USC

DEFENSE
Defensive End
1. Chris Long, DE, Virginia
2. Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
3. Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
4. Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
5. Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
6. Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
7. Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
8. Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
9. Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
10. Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
11. Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
12. Kendall Langford, DE, Hampton
13. Darrell Robertson, DE, Georgia Tech
14. Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers
15. Xavier Mitchell, DE, Tennessee
16. Rob Jackson, DE, Kansas State
17. Titus Brown, DE, Mississippi State
18. Wallace Gilberry, DE, Alabama
19. Marcus Dixon, DT, Hampton
20. Angelo Craig, DE, Cincinnati

Defensive Tackle
1. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
2. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
3. Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
4. Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
5. Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
6. Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
7. Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
8. DeMario Pressley, DT, North Carolina State
9. Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
10. Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
11. Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M
12. Lorenzo Williams, DT, Missouri
13. Frank Morton, DT, Tulane
14. Nick Hayden, DT, Wisconsin
15. Frank Okam, DT, Texas
16. Letroy Guion, DT, Florida State
17. Jason Shirley, DT, Fresno State
18. George Chukwu, DT, Rice
19. Josh Thompson, DT, Auburn
20. Maurice Murray, DT, New Mexico St

Outside Linebacker
1. Keith Rivers, LB, USC
2. Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
3. Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
4. Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland
5. Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
6. Shawn Crable, DE, Michigan
7. Jordon Dizon, LB, Colorado
8. Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
9. Ezra Butler, LB, Nevada
10. Wesley Woodyard, LB, Kentucky
11. Ali Highsmith, LB, LSU
12. Bruce Davis, DE, UCLA
13. Gary Guyton, LB, Georgia Tech
14. Stanford Kegler, LB, Purdue
15. Steven Octavien, OLB, Nebraska
16. Vince Redd, DE, Liberty
17. Robert Killebrew, LB, Texas
18. Jameel McClain, DE, Syracuse
19. Chase Ortiz, DE, TCU
20. Geno Hayes, LB, Florida State

Middle Linebacker
1. Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma
2. Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
3. Jonathan Goff, LB, Vanderbilt
4. Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
5. Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
6. Jolonn Dunbar, LB, Boston College
7. Rodrick Johnson, LB, Oklahoma State
8. Danny Lansanah, LB, Connecticut
9. Vince Hall, LB, Virginia Tech
10. Beau Bell, LB, UNLV
11. Ben Moffitt, LB, South Florida
12. Anthony Hoke, LB, Cincinnati
13. J Leman, LB, Illinois
14. Joe Mays, LB, North Dakota State
15. Steve Allen, LB, West Texas A&M

Cornerback
1. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
2. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
3. Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
4. Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
5. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
6. Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
7. Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
8. Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
9. Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
10. Justin King, CB, Penn State
11. Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
12. Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
13. Dwight Lowery, CB, San Jose State
14. Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
15. Jonathan Wilhite, CB, Auburn
16. Zach Bowman, CB, Nebraska
17. Tyvon Branch, CB, Connecticut
18. Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
19. Justin Tryon, CB, Arizona State
20. Rodney Van, CB, UCLA
21. Jack Ikegwuonu, CB, Wisconsin
22. Terrance Wheatley, CB, Colorado
23. Trey Brown, CB, UCLA
24. Darnell Terrell, CB, Missouri
25. Marcus Walker, CB, Oklahoma

Safety
1. Josh Barrett, SS, Arizona State
2. Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma
3. Kenny Phillips, SS, Miami
4. David Roach, SS, TCU
5. Thomas DeCoud, FS, California
6. Tyrell Johnson, SS, Arkansas State
7. Marcus Griffin, FS, Texas
8. Tom Zbikowski, SS, Notre Dame
9. Jamar Adams, SS, Michigan
10. DaJuan Morgan, FS, North Carolina State
11. Dominique Barber, FS, Minnesota
12. Jamie Silva, SS, Boston College
13. Caleb Campbell, SS, Army
14. Quintin Demps, SS, UTEP
15. Michael Hinton, CB, Mankato State
16. D.J. Parker, FS, Virginia Tech
17. Simeon Castille, CB, Alabama
18. Jonathan Hefney, CB, Tennessee
19. Michael Grant, FS, Arkansas
20. Craig Steltz, SS, LSU

2008 Free Agency: The Good, The Bad, and the Bears

This is a continuation of last night's post, which considered the top, or bottom, losers so far in free agency. "The good" was covered with a post on the top three teams, followed by a post with another three teams, in which my less-is-more philosophy became readily apparent.

So where did I leave off? Ah, yes, the Bears, whose work in free agency has been heavily criticized by just about everybody, including their great fans. But while it hasn't been pretty, I stopped short of including them among the biggest losers in free agency so far.

I don't think the Bears' situation is as bad as it looks. So what can Jerry Angelo be thinking? First of all, he brought Lance Briggs back, so let's give him some props for that. But alright, I know, defense isn't the problem: it's all of the holes on offense. So let's get to it.

There wasn't a reliable quarterback to bring in this off-season. No one significantly better than Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton was walking through that door. Those two aren't very good, but they know the system that's in place giving them the edge over anyone else who might have been brought in. What's that mean? Well, not a lot of passing probably.

In Greg Olsen the Bears have a young tight end with great speed who can stretch the field; in Desmond Clark they have a solid veteran tight end who has really performed well the past two years. More two–tight-end sets ought to follow. It suits the personnel and would mean even fewer passes to the wide receivers. Not re-signing Bernard Berrian looks bad now, but in the long run, well, that was a lot of money the Vikings threw at a guy who isn't a proven number one receiver. So not bringing Berrian back isn't necessarily a bad move. And the other wide receiver spot has actually been modestly upgraded from the overrated Muhsin Muhammad to Marty Booker. Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, and Mark Bradley understandably don't make the fan base comfortable, but in limited roles they could be adequate. And the Bears still can make a play for a second-tier free agent like Jabar Gaffney, Bryant Johnson, D.J. Hackett or Javon Walker, any of whom would be an affordable upgrade over the players above.

As far as the offensive line, there simply wasn't a stud tackle to be had among the free agents. To shore up the interior, they could have made a play for former Titan guard Jacob Bell who recently signed with the Rams (a nice signing by them). But if the Bears have confidence in Josh Beekman—I know I had confidence in him as a prospect coming out of Boston College last year—then maybe the idea is to spend a little less and just try to bring someone in to compete with Beekman for the starting left guard spot. Former Dolphin Rex Hadnot would probably be my choice, but maybe ex-Seahawk Floyd Womack can do better in a new locale. Another, more expensive possibility: the Ravens only gave restricted free agent Jason Brown the second-round tender. Brown is a good young lineman who received Dr. Z's vote for the 2007 All-Pro team. Z watches linemen more closely than any other AP voter and until I get my blocker rating system in place, I'll defer to his rankings more often than not. If the Bears aren't sold on Beekman then they should make a play for Brown. He's a known quantity, whereas any second-round or other draft pick is, at best, an educated guess. As for the tackle spot, Vanderbilt's Chris Williams is going to be awfully tempting if he's still on the board when the Bears pick at fourteen.

If the Bears, don't have the quarterback to put up a good passing attack, and aren't going to invest heavily in a number one receiver because of that, then they need to upgrade their running back situation. After three seasons, 2005 fourth overall pick Cedric Benson appears to be a bust. Adrian Peterson is a competent, all-purpose backup, but not as good when he starts for stretches at a time. The diminutive Garrett Wolfe is a scat back who needs to get the ball out in space in order to have success, and I don't envision a long career for him. Help can certainly be had in the draft, even if they don't take Rashard Mendenhall in round one as I have them doing in my mock draft.

So while the Bears haven't helped themselves too much this off-season, they did take a major step in keeping their good defense intact. And given the limited ability to significantly improve their passing game because of the lack of quality options available at quarterback and offensive tackle, the Bears are wise to proceed with caution and not blow a lot of cap space for moves that, at best, would only marginally help them. Less is more in free agency. And patience—it's true—is a virtue.

2008 Free Agency: Beautiful Losers

Enough about the free agency "winners" so far. Let's get to the dirty work of discussing the losers. Everyone with an eye on the situation is hammering the Chicago Bears. Mike and Mike were going off on them this morning. John Clayton included Chicago among his losers. As did Andrew Kneeland over at bleacher report. Even draft guru Scott Wright (NFL Draft Countdown) has gotten in on the act by offering his services to the Bears on his blog. The Patriots were the other team getting universally panned, though re-signing Moss has staved off some of the criticism. So will those two teams find a place in my bottom five? The suspense is poking you in the back I'm sure.

5. Atlanta Falcons
It's not like the Falcons have been awful. Resigning Chris Redman was a smart move. Erik Coleman can be the starting free safety at a decent price. Tight end Ben Hartsock is a good blocker and the kind of low-level signing that has analysts heaping praise on Bill Parcells (and not Jeff Ireland?) in Miami. But you have to start rebuilding a team from the lines back, and Atlanta needs too much help on both the offensive and defensive lines to rely solely on the draft. Not only do they need to add starters at offensive and defensive tackle, but they could use an upgrade at guard and some depth at defensive end. But the thing that puts them on this list is giving all that money to Micheal Turner. He didn't look as good in 2007 as he did in previous seasons and I don't expect him to do much more for the Falcons than LaMont Jordan did for the Raiders. They could have gotten a cheaper option in free agency to share carries with Jerious Norwood, and they could have drafted an underrated mid-to-late-round prospect like Cory Boyd or Thomas Brown.

4. Oakland Raiders
Hey, Tommy Kelly was on my All Free Agent team, but that doesn't mean I would have re-signed him to a seven-year, $50 million contract with $18.125 million guaranteed. As I wrote in January: “. . . with the right kind of contract he'll be a great addition for a team as either a 3-technique DT in a four-man line or as an end in a 3-4 scheme” The key phrase there is “with the right kind of contract.” Maybe I wasn't specific enough, but Oakland's deal? That doesn't qualify. And, look, another one of my All Free Agent teamers, Gibril Wilson found his way to Oakland, too. Six years, $39 million, $16 million guaranteed. A bargain! Al Davis was once a great football mind, but now: sharp as a soda. No, but seriously, the one good thing Raiders fans can take away from this is that both signings are of capable players, even if the prices paid were a bit steep.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
As I noted last night, John Clayton has the Jaguars as a winner (as does Kneeland over at bleacher report for that matter), but all the Jags have done is a whole lot of nothing. The only positive I can add to what I wrote last night is that the Marcus Stroud trade garnered them a couple of extra picks (a third and a fifth) in the upcoming draft.

2. New York Jets
I really liked the Jets drafts the past couple of years, but their other off-season moves aren't looking too good. They should have treated Pete Kendall better last year, as he was the engine that made the rest of that line work so well in 2006. Making Alan Faneca the highest paid lineman in football would have been a good move two or three years ago, but he's coming off his worst season in a long time. He's overrated right now, and linemen don't typically get better as they hit their mid thirties. Speaking of which, Damien Woody will turn 31 in November, and though he finished last season with four strong games at right tackle, he was largely a bust in Detroit after signing his last lucrative free agent contract. No way I give him $5 million per year for five years with $11 million guaranteed. Not quite as bad is the Calvin Pace signing. He's another one of my All Free Agent guys (these teams are making me hate myself!). But "value" was a big part of the considerations for those guys, and no way did I see Pace getting a $42-million, six-year deal with $22 million guaranteed. He has basically had one good season. The fact that it's the Jets signing Pace makes it impossible not to compare it to their re-signing of Bryan Thomas last year after he finally posted a good season. The result, Thomas was right back to suckitude in 2007. On the plus side, the Jets did well in acquiring Kris Jenkins who will help improve a defensive line that was the worst in the league against the run. And they also picked up decent value for Jonathan Vilma (they could get as much as a second-round pick in 2009 depending on how Vilma plays and if he extends his contract with the Saints).

1. San Francisco 49ers
To me it's a bigger free agency sin to make a lot of noise and accomplish little to nothing than to stand pat and possibly miss out on an opportunity or two. Isaac Bruce for two years and $6 million ain't so bad. With Larry Allen retiring that offense can use a little veteran leadership and, of course, he knows the Mike Martz offense. And linebacker Dontarrious Thomas is a nice mid-level signing that could fill a hole, but if it doesn't work out won't cost them much. The 49ers go south, though, with the DeShaun Foster signing. It's a small contract that isn't going to hamper the 49ers even if they cut him before the season. But my opinion of Foster's game is so low that just bringing him in like this is a waste of resources. Justin Smith has never had a double-digit sack year; he's coming off his worst season by far; and I'm not sure he's the right fit for the 49ers defensive scheme. No way do I give him $45 million over six years with $20 million guaranteed. As much as I dislike the Smith deal, I guess it's the worthless signings—like kick returner Allen Rossum and backup quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan—that put the 49ers over the top, or rather, push them to the very bottom.

              * * *

OK, so what about the Patriots? As long as the Pats have Tom Brady and they can put him on the field with guys like Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, and Laurence Maroney. They'll be just fine. 2006 first-round wide receiver Chad Jackson is waiting for his chance to contribute and should be able to have an impact. But if he can't cut it, the recently re-signed Kelley Washington could help out. The defense is going to take more work to keep together, but last year's first round pick Brandon Merriweather should be ready to help out the secondary, and Bill Belichick has a way of recycling linebackers. Plus, the Pats have that top-ten draft pick via the 49ers, which they should be able to turn into a defensive starter.

And about those Bears? I'll get to them in the morning.

2008 Free Agency: Instant Winners (cont'd)

Here is how a pro does his winners and losers list. My three "instant winners" from last night's post appear on John Clayton's list of five winners, which I think I'll take as a good thing (he's in the football writers Hall of Fame or something, right?). To the Dolphins, Eagles, and Vikings, Clayton adds the Browns and the Jags.

I could almost put the Browns ahead of the Eagles and the Vikings but for my reservations about the Shaun Rogers trade. The other moves are great. I love the trade for Corey Williams. He's a good young player who I think projects well as a 3-4 end, as I noted when I included him on my All Free Agent team. And Donte Stallworth, who you wouldn't want to bring in as your number one receiver, is perfect as a complement to Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurevicius. And I'm 100% behind re-signing Derek Anderson to a three-year deal. But the Rogers trade, man, I don't know. Talk about boom or bust. Leigh Bodden might not have been a great corner—he struggled more in 2007 than in previous seasons—but he's a solid starter. To part with him and a third round pick in what I think is shaping up to be one of the deeper drafts in recent memory (even the receiver position, which is weak at the top, will offer quite a few nice prospects in the second and third rounds), that's a lot for a guy who hasn't been dependable over the past couple of seasons. There's no doubt Rogers has All-Pro talent—he displayed it at times as recently as last season. And if he can keep himself in shape and play like that consistently, we'll look back and say the Browns were the big winners this off season. But that's not a bet I would make at this point.

I respectfully completely disagree with Clayton's take on the Jags. They overpaid for Jerry Porter, who would have been worth bringing in only at a lesser price. And the Troy Williamson trade just adds another first-round wide receiver bust to a roster filled with them. I'd rather have former Jag wide out Ernest Wilford any day (surprisingly Clayton doesn't even feel Wilford warrants a mention in his Miami paragraph). Cornerback Drayton Florence was toasted, popped up, and toasted again for San Diego in 2007. He's not going to help the Jags pass defense any more than Aaron Glenn did last year. And I'm not so sure that Cleo Lemons is an upgrade at backup quarterback over Quinn Gray.

So if it's not the Jags, who would my fifth "winner" be so far? How about the Dallas Cowboys. As a general rule, I believe less is definitely more in free agency, and Dallas has barely made a peep. Zach Thomas seems to be fine health-wise, what with the Patriots, Saints, and Cowboys all checking him out and giving him the OK. If so, he should be an upgrade over Akin Ayodele who was a better fit in the Parcells 3-4 than in Wade Phillips' scheme. Resigning Flozell Adams to a big contract might not have been the smartest move when you consider his age, but when you consider the other options at left tackle in free agency and after about the fifteenth pick of the draft—well, there aren't really any other options, at least not that can help immediately. Bringing Adams back seems like a necessary move for a team coming off of a 13-3 season. And by trading Jason Ferguson Dallas jumps up about 30 picks to the top of the sixth round and gains an extra sixth rounder for next year.

Honorable mention: the Detroit Lions. I believe strongly in building a defense from the front back (well who doesn't after that last Super Bowl, right?). But, the Lions just had to rid themselves of the Shaun Rogers conditioning soap opera. And, hey, not only did they get something in return for him. They picked up a solid starter at a position of need and a nice little third round pick to boot. Props to Mr. Millen for that one.

2008 Free Agency: Instant Winners

With the flurry of activity that is the opening weekend of free agency coming to a close, here are my top three instant winners. Of course free agency is far from over, and this is just a small piece of the off-season puzzle. If I have time tomorrow night I'll post my top three free agency losers so far. I'm not positive, but I think that would include the Falcons and the 49ers—whose many signings I'm mostly not a fan of—as well as the Titans, who have plenty of cap space and a quarterback desperately in need of help, yet their only addition so far is a 30-year-old tight end coming off a knee injury.

WINNERS
1. Miami Dolphins
With a ton of cap room, Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland restrained themselves from making a huge splash and instead concentrated on bringing in a number of low- and mid-level free agents to help makeover the roster quickly. I love the signing of Ernest Wilford (not surprisingly since I placed him on my All Free Agent Team) to help shore up a young and shaky bunch of receivers. Josh McCown gives them a strong arm and experience behind center until a young guy (and I don't think it will be John Beck) can be developed. Tight end Sean Ryan was drafted by Parcells in Dallas; he's a solid blocker who brings his lunch pail to work everyday. Former 49ers guard Justin Smiley is coming off an injury, but should help remake this line more in the Parcells mold.
 On the defensive side of the ball, Miami has wasted no time in building their three-man front. Nose tackle Jason Ferguson (drafted by Parcells with the Jets) was acquired from Dallas for a 2009 sixth rounder (the teams will also swap sixth round picks in the upcoming draft). Ferguson had one of the better seasons of any defensive tackle in 2006 and really should have been a Pro Bowl selection. If he can regain that form after missing last season with an injury, it would go a long way toward shoring up the run defense. Randy Starks, a former Titans reserve defensive tackle, is big, young, and very athletic for his size. He'll be expected to start at defensive end in the base 3-4 and move inside to DT in nickel packages where Parcells (I know he's not the coach, but Parcells proteges are all over the staff) deploys a four-man front. Ex-Giants linebacker Reggie Torbor will get a shot at starting inside in the 3-4 and whether he wins that job or not will likely see a lot of time in sub packages.

2. Philadelphia Eagles
Unlike the Dolphins who made a ton of moves, the Eagles only made two. Signing cornerback Asante Samuel upgrades an already good secondary and allows the team to try to trade Lito Sheppard to acquire help at another position like wide receiver. Chris Clemons has durability concerns, and the terms of his contract haven't yet been released, but this looks like a solid move to replace Jevon Kearse's place in the defensive end rotation. The Eagles already had a real good pass rush, ranked sixth in adjusted sack rate; if Clemons stays healthy, it should only get better.

3. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings might have overpaid a bit for Bernard Berrian, but it fills a major need (even with the expected development of 2007 second-rounder Sidney Rice) and they had the cap space. Plus, they've snatched a key player away from a division rival who is now bereft of starting-caliber wide receivers. Fullback Thomas Tapeh knows the offense and what Brad Childress is looking for from his time in Philadelphia and is an upgrade over Tony Richardson whose All-Pro days seem to be behind him. Ex-Bengal Madieu Williams has the versatility to play either safety position and is a solid signing in a weak year for safeties whether in free agency or the draft.

Team Needs

AFC East	NFC East
Buffalo Bills	Dallas Cowboys
Miami Dolphins	New York Giants
New England Patriots	Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets	Washington Redskins
AFC North	NFC North
Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals	Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns	Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers	Minnesota Vikings
AFC South	NFC South
Houston Texans	Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts	Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars	New Orleans Saints
Tennessee Titans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
AFC West	NFC West
Denver Broncos	Arizona Cardinals
Kansas City Chiefs	St. Louis Rams
Oakland Raiders	San Francisco 49ers
San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks

Team Needs: Atlanta Falcons

1. Quarterback
The Falcons made a good move in resigning Chris Redman, who was their best quarterback last season, to a two-year deal. And they may have cleared enough cap space with their many off-season cuts to keep Joey Harrington and his $2.5 million salary. But they need to get their future starter, which they should be able to do in the draft.

2. Offensive Tackle
Devastated by injuries (they started four different left tackles last season), Atlanta's offensive line was one of the worst. The unit ranked dead last in Adjusted Line Yards and finished in the bottom third of the leauge (23rd) in Adjusted Sack Rate. Undersized tackle Todd Weiner is 32 and coming off of a knee injury, but he can play either side and should be able to hold down one of the starting jobs. The other is up in the air, with Quinn Ojinnaka, D'Anthony Batiste, and a host of others battling for spots on the team.

3. Defensive Tackle
Former All-Pro, Rod Coleman was a necessary cap cut, but without him the Falcons are especially thin on talent up front. Sixth-rounder Trey Lewis was a pleasant surprise as a space eater inside and could be a solid two-down player. 2005 third-rounder Jonathan Babineaux has been inconsistent, but might be better off subbing in for Lewis on passing downs. Montavious Stanley and Jesse Mahelona are already journeymen after two seasons in the league.

4. Middle Linebacker
32-year-old Keith Brooking is ill-suited to be the starting middle linebacker again. He's scheduled to make $5 million in 2008 and is among the next in the cap-cut line.

5. Wide Receiver
2005 first-rounder Roddy White finally started to reach the potential he showed that made him a high draft pick, which is especially good because 2004 first-rounder Michael Jenkins continues to underwhelm. Joe Horn was another in a long line of disappointing free agent signings and he's not likely to be back.

6. Tight End
Alge Crumpler was always a little overrated, and now that he's battling knee problems that look like they might be a chronic issue, it was a wise decision to err on the side of adding cap space. 2007 fourth-rounder Martrez Milner is a decent blocking back who finished the season on IR and could be an asset in two tight end sets, but the Falcons need to add a new number one here.

7. Guard
Tyson Clabo, who filled in at right tackle last season, has the inside track for the right guard spot, while left guard Justin Blalock, Atlanta's second round pick last year, will have to show improvement to hold down his starting job (although, with so many other holes to be filled, the job could be his by default).

8. Defensive End
The often injured John Abraham started all sixteen games for only the second time in his eight-year career, recording 10 of Atlanta's 25 sacks. 2007 first-rounder Jamaal Anderson was a major disappointment, failing to deliver a single sack. Having just turned 22, Anderson obviously still has upside; a year in an NFL strength and conditioning program should go a long way toward improving his game, as long as he has the drive. While their starters at end are set, the Falcons need to add depth late in the draft.

9. Strong Safety
Even if Lawyer Milloy is retained for the 2008 season, it will be the 34-year-old strong safety's last year in Atlanta and probably the league. Sixth-rounder Darren Stone is the backup who could be given a chance to start if Milloy's cut.

10. Kicker
Morten Anderson will turn 48 this summer. He's my favorite all-time kicker, but I can't imagine he's going to reach his goal of kicking in the NFL when he's 50. Last season had to be the end of the road for him.

Team Needs: Minnesota Vikings

1. Defensive End
Minnesota's 38 sacks were good enough for eighth in the league, but they didn't really have a good pass rush, as they ranked only 28th in adjusted sack rate. Starting ends Kenechi Udeze and Ray Edwards aren't bad, but they're not the game-changing pass rushers that are a must have in today's NFL. 2005 first-rounder Erasmus James had plenty of talent coming out of Wisconsin but he also had an injury history that made him a very risky first round pick, which is why I had Matt Roth and Justin Tuck ranked ahead of him. James has managed only 12 starts in 23 games over his first three years with the past two seasons being cut short by knee injuries. 2007 fourth-rounder Brian Robison flashed some potential and could improve with a good off-season conditioning program to help keep him from wearing down, but a stud DE is still in order for Minnesota.

2. Strong Safety
Darren Sharper will be a 33-year-old free agent after the 2008 season. The Vikings should try to land the future starter with one of their mid-round draft picks.

3. Defensive Tackle
Starters Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are both All-Pro–caliber players. But big Pat will be 36 by the time the 2008 season finishes; and with Spencer Johnson's departure to the Bills, the only reserve is 2006 seventh-rounder Fred Evans.

4. Quarterback
As I watched the Vikings-Cowboys game last season, one thing became clear: With adequate quarterback play, the Vikings were a playoff team. But Tarvaris Jackson was a bit more raw than most QBs taken in the first two rounds, so it's way too early to give up on him yet. More importantly, he showed some improvement as the season wore on. Ideally a veteran would be brought in to compete for the stating job while Jackson continues to acclimate himself to the NFL. At the very least, they need a better backup than Brooks Bollinger, who can be fun to watch but has too many flaws in his game.

5. Tight End
One of the great mysteries of the 2007 off-season was the five-year, $18.2 million contract which the Vikes gave to Visanthe Shiancoe. His 27-catch, 1-TD season did nothing to solve that mystery. Jim Kleinsasser is a great blocker, but he's 31 and will be a free agent after next season.

6. Linebacker
With the departure of free agent Dontarrious Thomas, the Vikings lack adequate depth at each linebacker spot.

7. Left Tackle
This position wouldn't be as much of an issue except for the possible suspension of Bryant McKinnie for his second off-field incident. Artis Hicks or Marcus Johnson would likely start in any games McKinnie misses, but if you're talking about a quarter of the season, a better option would be nice.

Team Needs: Arizona Cardinals

1. Outside Linebacker
Adding a pass-rushing linebacker/nickel defensive end is a must with one starter, Chike Okeafor, coming off an injury and the other, Calvin Pace, a free agent. Bertrand Berry hasn't been able to stay healthy and has played basically half the season for three years running. Monty Beisel is a versatile backup and experienced special teams coverage guy, but that's about it.

2. Running Back
Edgerrin James's first two seasons in Arizona have been a disappointment. This year he turns 30, making it unlikely that better days are ahead. 2005 second-rounder J.J. Arrington has been a bust. Backup Marcel Shipp also turns 30 this year and I can't imagine Arizona keeps him around much longer.

3. Defensive End
One side is set with Darnell Dockett, while the other side is manned by restricted free agent Antonio Smith who recently received the first-round tender. Ideally Smith would be upgraded, but he's young and could continue to improve. The big problem is the lack of depth, with nothing at all beyond the two starters. And rotation of defensive linemen is more important than ever in the NFL.

4. Cornerback
Rod Hood had some outstanding metrics last season and is arguably one of the most underrated players in the league right now. Eric Green was far less than stellar, but if Arizona's mediocre pass rush could be improved, Green could be adequate. The eighth overall pick in the 2005 draft, Antrel Rolle hasn't met expectations, but it looks like he has a future at free safety, where he could be a good one. A young cornerback to challenge Green for his starting spot is a must.

5. Wide Receiver
With negotiations to restructure Larry Fitzgerald's contract reaching an impasse, the Cardinals might have to swallow his $14.6 million salary in 2008. But he's due even more, $17.4 million to be exact, next year. Needless to say, Fitzgerald's future in Arizona is questionable. They do still have Anquan Boldin signed through 2010, but Bryant Johnson will leave via free agency. 2007 fifth-rounder Steve Breaston did well as a returner and has some upside, but the Cards need to start developing another young receiver.

6. Punter
When the Mike Barr experiment didn't pan out, the Cards turned to 12-year vet Mitch Berger who had been out of football for over a year. About that time off: yeah, it showed.

2008 NFL Draft Stock Watch: Combine Consensus, part 2

Following up on last night's post—and sticking to the same method I used following the Senior Bowl—here are my top five guys who helped their stock at the Combine, limiting myself to the players who received two or fewer mentions in yesterday's sources.

1. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
At 6'1" and 200 pounds, Caldwell ran the forty in 3.7 seconds: tied for the third best time among wide receivers. He added a 6.75 in the 3-cone drill (third among receivers) and a 4.11 in the 20-yard shuttle (second). Add that to his solid performance at the Senior Bowl practices—not to mention the game itself where he scored the winning touchdown on an end around—and a college career that saw him catch 78% of the passes thrown his way, and you have a player who has moved himself up to late first/early second round territory.

2. Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Just like his game, Laws just keeps coming on in these post-season events. He's another prospect who has backed up a strong Senior Bowl week with a great performance at the Combine. His 35 bench press reps were tied for third among all players. He ran a relatively smooth 5.06 forty (third among defensive tackles), while his 30.5" vertical jump was the best among DTs. If Laws hadn't already worked his way up to second round consideration, he surely has now.

3. Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
I've sung his praises before, and I'm surprised Jason Jones hasn't moved up higher on draft boards around the Web. Checking in at 6'5" and 273 pounds, Jones ran about a 4.75 forty, basically the same as Chris Long. His broad jump was 10'3", third among defensive linemen behind only Long and Vernon Gholston, and he posted a 4.23 in the 20-yard shuttle (third behind Curtis Gatewood and—you guessed it—Chris Long). I keep thinking one of these days they're going to start talking about him as a mid-to-late first round pick. More likely, though, he'll be a steal for somebody in the second.

4. David Roach, S, TCU
Roach looked surprisingly fluid in the drills, and he stood out from many of the other safeties in this year's generally weak class of prospects. At 6 feet and 210 pounds, Roach posted a good 4.51 forty time. His 38" vertical jump was best among safeties and tied for second among all DBs (behind Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's 38.5"). Roach's 6.88 3-cone drill was third among safeties (ninth among DBs); his 4.15 20-yard shuttle was also third among safeties (tied for ninth among DBs); and his 11.11 60-yard shuttle was first among safeties and second among DBs (again behind only DRC). Though no one's talking about him, Roach has moved himself up from a sixth- or seventh-round guy to a fifth rounder, at least in my eyes.

5. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
I'm surprised Rice didn't get a single mention in the source articles as one of the players who helped their stock at the Combine. While some draftniks already have him right there in the second tier of this great running back class, there's certainly a contingent who felt he lacked the speed to be a top prospect and that his size was a major concern. But Rice checked in at 5'8" and 199 pounds, a height and weight very similar to one of the best backs of all time. To prove his strength he put up a respectable 23 reps, then he ripped off a 4.4 forty, which is plenty fast enough, and went on to show great agility by posting a position-best 6.65 in the 3-cone drill. Rice's performance at the Combine all but guarantees he won't escape the second round; and by dispelling some concerns, he could sneak his way into the late first.