Monday, April 28, 2008

2008 NFL Draft "Redo" (part 1)

Instead of engaging in the absurd (but nonetheless fun) process of grading the teams on their drafts a day later, I'm going to pit myself against the GMs and redo their drafts. In five years, I can look back and see what an idiot I am, er, I mean, which of us did better.
  I'm going to mostly stick with whatever trades the teams made. There will be a couple of exceptions, such as Atlanta trading two second round picks and a fourth to Washington for the 21st overall pick (I don't see the value at a position of need for Atlanta at that high of a pick, especially since I view Sam Baker as more of a guard or right tackle prospect).
  Also, since the teams have a lot more information on most of the guys that go in the last couple of rounds, I might tend to stick with the prospects they selected there unless I have a strong feeling about the pick.
  The other thing is that a lot of the same names will probably appear throughout, since I'm not redoing all of the GMs' work at the same time; obviously the prospects I most like and see as having the most value at various points in the draft are going to be “selected” more often.
  Names in bold are “matches” between my picks and a team's actual pick.

Arizona Cardinals
Quick hit: Love the DRC pick, in a close call over Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (16): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Round 2 (50): Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
Round 3 (81): Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Round 4 (116): Kenny Iwebema, DE, Iowa
Round 5 (149): Timothy Hightower, RB, Richmond
Round 6 (185): Christopher Harrington, DE, Texas A&M
Round 7 (225): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

Draft Redo
Round 1 (16): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Round 2 (50): Jason Jones, DE/DT, Eastern Michigan
Round 3 (81): Cliff Avril, OLB/DE, Purdue
Round 4 (116): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (149): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (185): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (225): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

Atlanta Falcons
Quick hit: Would have tried to find a way to trade down from the third pick to land Vanderbilt offensive tackle Chris Williams, rather than trade up to the twenty-first pick for Sam Baker. Also, I never would have signed Michael Turner (at least not for the kind of money he got), so a trade up into the late first round would have been to snatch Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (3): Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Round 1 (21): Sam Baker, OT, Southern California
Round 2 (37): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 3 (68): Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
Round 3 (84): Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
Round 3 (98): Thomas DeCoud, S, California
Round 5 (138): Robert James, LB, Arizona State
Round 5 (154): Kroy Bierman, MLB, Montana
Round 6 (172): Thomas Brown, RB, Georgia
Round 7 (212): Wilrey Fontenot, CB, Arizona
Round 7 (232): Keith Zinger, TE, LSU

Draft Redo
Round 1 (3): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 2 (34): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 2 (37): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 2 (48): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (68): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (98): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (103): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 5 (138): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (172): Jaymar Johnson, WR, Jackson State
Round 7 (212): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (232): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Baltimore Ravens
Quick hit: In hindsight it certainly appears that the Ravens traded up higher than they needed to to land Joe Flacco. But you couldn't have known that at the time, and at the very least, I think they needed to get ahead of Miami at the top of round two. The earlier trade down with Jacksonville was a wonderful move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (18): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Round 2 (55): Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Round 3 (71): Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
Round 3 (86): Tom Zbikowski, S, Notre Dame
Round 3 (99): Oniel Cousins, G, UTEP
Round 4 (106): Marcus Smith, WR, New Mexico
Round 4 (133): David Hale, OT, Weber State
Round 6 (206): Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati
Round 7 (215): Justin Harper, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 7 (240): Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma

Draft Redo
Round 1 (18): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Round 2 (55): Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Round 3 (71): Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
Round 3 (86): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 3 (99): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (106): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (133): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 6 (206): Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati
Round 7 (215): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (240): Fernando Velasco, G/C, Georgia

Buffalo Bills
Quick hit: In terms of quality prospects filling needs, Buffalo's first two picks were as good as any team not selecting twice in the first round.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (11): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Round 2 (41): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Round 3 (72): Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (114): Reggie Corner, CB, Akron
Round 4 (132): Derek Fine, TE, Kansas
Round 5 (147): Alvin Bowen, LB, Iowa State
Round 6 (179): Xavier Omon, RB, NW Missouri State
Round 7 (219): Demetrius Bell, OT, Northwestern State
Round 7 (224): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
Round 7 (251): Kennard Cox, CB, Pittsburgh

Draft Redo
Round 1 (11): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Round 2 (41): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Round 3 (72): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (114): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (132): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (147): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (179): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (219): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
Round 7 (224): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
Round 7 (251): Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland

Carolina Panthers
Quick hit: Panthers received exceptional value with their third round picks, and trading up to land Otah with the nineteenth pick wasn't a bad move either. There's no way, though, that I would have taken Stewart over Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (13): Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Round 1 (19): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Round 3 (67): Charles Godfrey, CB/S, Iowa
Round 3 (74): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 5 (141): Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville
Round 6 (181): Nick Hayden, DT, Wisconsin
Round 7 (221): Hilee Taylor, DE/OLB, UNC
Round 7 (241): Jeff Schwartz, G, Oregon
Round 7 (250): Mackenzy Bernadeau, G, Bentley

Draft Redo
Round 1 (13): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 1 (19): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 3 (67): Charles Godfrey, CB/S, Iowa
Round 3 (74): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 5 (141): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (181): John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
Round 7 (221): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
Round 7 (241): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (250): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

Chicago Bears
Quick hit: If you're reading this through you can probably tell I love some of these picks: Williams, Bennett, and Davis are some of my favorite prospects. And the Bears added great value with Harrison, Bowman, and Monk. But a couple of big mistakes stand out: selecting Forte over Chad Henne and going with safety Craig Steltz in round 4.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (14): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (44): Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
Round 3 (70): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (90): Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
Round 4 (120): Craig Steltz, S, LSU
Round 5 (142): Zack Bowman, CB, Nebraska
Round 5 (158): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (208): Ervin Baldwin, DE, Michigan State
Round 7 (222): Chester Adams, G, Georgia
Round 7 (243): Joey LaRocque, LB, Oregon State
Round 7 (247): Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State
Round 7 (248): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (14): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (44): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (70): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (90): Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
Round 4 (120): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (142): Zack Bowman, CB, Nebraska
Round 5 (158): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (208): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (222): Chester Adams, G, Georgia
Round 7 (243): David Roach, S, TCU
Round 7 (247): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers
Round 7 (248): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Cincinnati Bengals
Quick hit: My mock draft was not a raging success, but there was at least one nail hit squarely on the head: “The Saints will find a way to leap frog the Bengals—whether it means trading with the Chiefs or the Patriots—and snatch Sedrick Ellis from them.” The Bengals should have traded up to prevent that from happening, but, as I also noted in my mock: “the stingy Bengals won't dare do anything as adventurous as that.” They blew it even further by not taking Trevor Laws in the second, but recovered with some fine picks on day two.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (9): Keith Rivers, LB, Southern Cal
Round 2 (46): Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina
Round 3 (77): Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
Round 3 (97): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (112): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 5 (145): Jason Shirley, DT, Fresno State
Round 6 (177): Corey Lynch, S, Appalachian State
Round 6 (207): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (244): Angelo Craig, OLB, Cincinnati
Round 7 (196): Mario Urrutia, WR, Louisville

Draft Redo
Round 1 (9): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 2 (46): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 3 (77): Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Purdue
Round 3 (97): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (112): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 5 (145): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (177): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (207): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (244): Angelo Craig, OLB, Cincinnati
Round 7 (196): Danny Amendola, WR, Texas Tech

Cleveland Browns
Quick hit: Given the limited picks they had, the Browns did pretty well for themselves. I wouldn't have traded up for Beau Bell, but it's not a bad move; I view Jonathan Goff as the safer pick, but Bell can reasonably be said to have a higher ceiling.

Actual Draft
Round 4 (104): Beau Bell, ILB, UNLV
Round 4 (111): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (190): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (191): Paul Hubbard, WR, Wisconsin
Round 7 (231): Alex Hall, OLB, St. Augustine's

Draft Redo
Round 4 (104): Jonathan Goff, ILB, Vanderbilt
Round 4 (111): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (190): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (191): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (231): Alex Hall, OLB, St. Augustine's

Dallas Cowboys
Quick hit: The toughest call in the entire draft might have been Dallas's regarding which running back to take with the twenty-second pick. Do you take the most complete running back available, Rashard Mendenhall? Or do you go with the more complementary piece to Marion Barber, Felix Jones, with the added benefit that it doesn't create a “carries controversy” with the media and in the locker room?

Actual Draft
Round 1 (22): Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Round 1 (25): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Round 2 (61): Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
Round 4 (122): Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
Round 5 (143): Orlando Scandrick, CB, Boise State
Round 6 (167): Erik Walden, OLB, Middle Tennessee St

Draft Redo
Round 1 (22): Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Round 1 (25): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Round 2 (61): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 4 (122): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (143): Marcus Howard, OLB, Georgia
Round 6 (167): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Denver Broncos
Quick hit: The Broncos did a good job of filling many of their roster holes via free agency. The offensive line was the one glaring area they needed to address.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (12): Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Round 2 (42): Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (108): Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green
Round 4 (119): Jack Williams, CB, Kent
Round 5 (139): Ryan Torain, RB, Arizona State
Round 5(148): Carlton Powell, DT, Virginia Tech
Round 6 (183): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (220): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (227): Peyton Hills, FB, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (12): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (42): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 4 (108): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (119): Jack Williams, CB, Kent
Round 5 (139): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5(148): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (183): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (220): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (227): Peyton Hills, FB, Arkansas

Detroit Lions
Quick hit: I don't understand selecting Gosder Cherilus with Jeff Otah still on the board, but you have to like Millen's logic of taking the tackle first and then grabbing the running back later. I'm not crazy about the Dizon pick, but I can't fault him too much, because with Mayo off the board there wasn't a lot in the way of potential cover two middle linebackers.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (17): Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Round 2 (45): Jordan Dizon, LB, Colorado
Round 3 (64): Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Round 3 (87): Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
Round 3 (92): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 5 (136): Kenneth Moore, WR, Wake Forest
Round 5 (146): Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
Round 7 (216): Landon Cohen, DE, Ohio
Round 7 (218): Caleb Campbell, S, Army

Draft Redo
Round 1 (17): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Round 2 (45): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 3 (64): Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Round 3 (87): Phillip Wheeler, MLB, Georgia Tech
Round 3 (92): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 5 (136): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (146): Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
Round 7 (216): Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland
Round 7 (218): Caleb Campbell, S, Army

Green Bay Packers
Quick hit: The Packers don't generally make too many mistakes in the draft, but it's not like they're the Colts, right?

Actual Draft
Round 2 (36): Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
Round 2 (56): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (60): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 3 (91): Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
Round 4 (102): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (135): Josh Sitton, OT, Central Florida
Round 5 (150): Breno Giacomini, OT, Louisville
Round 7 (209): Matt Flynn, QB, LSU
Round 7 (217): Brett Swain, WR, San Diego State

Draft Redo
Round 2 (36): Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Round 2 (56): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (60): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 3 (91): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (102): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (135): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (150): Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
Round 7 (209): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (217): Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan

Houston Texans
Quick hit: Houston's selection of Duane Brown was considered a reach by some, but I had him as the fourth best tackle prospect in the draft, and given the run on tackles (including some I had rated much below him, i.e., Gosder Cherilus), it was a perfectly reasonable move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (26): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (79): Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 3 (89): Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
Round 4 (118): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 5 (151): Frank Okam, DT, University of Texas
Round 6 (173): Dominque Barber, SS, Minnesota
Round 7 (223): Alex Brink, QB, Washington State

Draft Redo
Round 1 (26): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (79): Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 3 (89): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (118): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 5 (151): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (173): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 7 (223): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Indianapolis Colts
Quick hit: The Colts entire starting lineup last year consisted of players they drafted. Yeah, so I won't be challenging them on too many picks. Nevermind that getting Marcus Howard in the fifth round was one of the biggest steals of this draft.

Actual Draft
Round 2 (59): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 3 (93): Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Round 4 (127): Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky
Round 5 (161): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (196): Tom Santi, TE, Virginia
Round 6 (201): Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
Round 6 (202): Mike Hart, RB, Michigan
Round 6 (205): Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
Round 7 (236): Jamey Richard, C, Buffalo

Draft Redo
Round 2 (59): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 3 (93): Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Round 4 (127): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (161): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (196): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 6 (201): Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
Round 6 (202): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 6 (205): Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
Round 7 (236): Rodney Van, CB, UCLA

Jacksonville Jaguars
Quick hit: The Jags put most of their effort into moving way up in round one in order to take defensive end Derrick Harvey. They took another end in round two, making it clear that improving their pass rush was their one and only priority in this draft. Given the overall talent level of this team, and the wide receivers they added during free agency, I can't argue too much with their reasoning.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (8): Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Round 2 (52): Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
Round 5 (155): Thomas Williams, OLB, USC
Round 5 (159): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 7 (213): Chauncey Washington, RB, USC

Draft Redo
Round 1 (8): Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Round 2 (52): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 5 (155): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 5 (159): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 7 (213): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Kansas City Chiefs
Quick hit: Some teams are able to go best player available with each pick because they're so stocked with talent. The Chiefs were in the even more rare position of being able to go best player available because they needed starters at just about every position other than running back and tight end, and even those positions lacked quality reservers.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (5): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 1 (15): Branden Albert, G, Virginia
Round 2 (35): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (73): Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
Round 3 (76): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 3 (82): DaJuan Morgan, S, North Carolina State
Round 4 (105): Will Franklin, WR, Missouri
Round 6 (170): Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson
Round 6 (182): Kevin Robinson, WR, Utah State
Round 7 (210): Brian Johnston, DE, Gardner-Webb
Round 7 (239): Mike Merrit, TE, Central Florida

Draft Redo
Round 1 (5): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 1 (15): Branden Albert, T/G, Virginia
Round 2 (35): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (73): Jeremy Zuttah, G/C, Rutgers
Round 3 (76): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 3 (82): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (105): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 6 (170): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 6 (182): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (210): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (239): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

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