In the Trenches: 2007 week seven

Games Reviewed
Arizona Cardinals (19) at Washington Redskins (21)
Baltimore Ravens (14) at Buffalo Bills (19)
Tennessee Titans (38) at Houston Texans (36)
Chicago Bears (19) at Philadelphia Eagles (16)
Pittsburgh Steelers (28) at Denver Broncos (31)

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

Though he made some rookie blunders, Baltimore's Jared Gaither was way more impressive than Arizona's more heralded rookie, Levi Brown, who was a definite step down from starter Mike Gandy. Jason Peters once again scored surprisingly low; he had a lopsided game, doing very well in pass protection (9.32 PBR) but not so much in the running game (7.12 RBR).

Left Guard

Alan Faneca looked much better against the Broncos than he had against the Cardinals, but it still wasn't a stellar game. Jason Brown continues to perform well and is now the highest rated left guard on the season. Chester Pitts's rating is artificially high: in the NFL Replay version of the Titans-Texans game, three or four Texans three-and-outs were cut out, leaving the Texans with only five running plays to review; pass blocker ratings are higher than run blocker ratings, and left guards (along with centers) have the biggest difference (seven tenths).

Center

Re: Mike Flanagan, see the comment on Chester Pitts above. Even with a good game against the Eagles, Olin Kreutz is still below average for the season. I've seen enough of Kevin Mawae now to say he's still one of the top centers in the league. Mike Pucillo rebounded from his awful week-six appearance, turning in a serviceable game. Melvin Fowler had a great game against the Broncos and a decent game against the Colts, but struggled noticeably against the Ravens.

Right Guard

The list of the top-rated guards (left or right) for the 2007 season now goes like this: Leonard Davis, Cowboys (9.39 BR, 147 plays), Shawn Andrews, Eagles (9.29 BR, 63 plays), Chris Snee, Giants (9.23 BR, 162 plays). Yes, they're all in the NFC East; and unsung Giant lineman Rich Seubert is fifth (behind Jason Brown) with a 9.04 BR.

Right Tackle

Marshal Yanda just keeps having good games, as does David Stewart. They're the second and sixth rated right tackles so far on the season.

In the Trenches: 2007 week six

Games Reviewed
Oakland Raiders (14) at San Diego Chargers (28)
Washington Redskins (14) at Green Bay Packers (17)
New England Patriots (48) at Dallas Cowboys (27)
Miami Dolphins (31) at Cleveland Browns (41)
Minnesota Vikings (34) at Chicago Bears (31)

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

None of the left tackles had poor weeks, though it was disappointing to see favorites Chris Samuels, Joe Thomas, and Chad Clifton on the wrong side of average. Each struggled in the run game but did well in pass protection, as did Bryant McKinnie, Barry Sims, and Flozell Adams, who still managed an above-average BR in what was likely his worst performance of the season. Meanwhile, Vernon Carey, with three games reviewed, is having one of the best seasons of any tackle so far.

Left Guard

This is the third time I've reviewed a New England game, including the Super Bowl and 2007 week one (which used my earlier rating system which tended to yield higher scores) and Logan Mankins has yet to turn in a noticeably above-average game. On the other hand, since NFL Replay isn't given to showing blow outs, his best games probably aren't going to be considered here. Dielman and Hutchinson appear right where you would expect them to. Dielman is one of only two left guards with a BR over 9 so far this season (the other is New York Giant Rich Seubert, while Baltimore's Jason Brown is only a couple hundredths off).

Center

Casey Rabach left the game with a groin injury and there was a huge drop off for Washington when Mike Pucillo stepped in. Of the centers with at least 50 reviewed plays so far, Rabach has the second best BR (9.18) behind Denver's Tom Nalen (9.2). Andre Gurode struggled mightily with Vince Wilfork and the middle of that early-season Patriot defense. Olin Kreutz, going against those tough Minnesota defensive tackles, rebounded nicely from his rough week-five performance against Green Bay. San Diego's Nick Hardwick had a BR of 10, but only had six plays rated before leaving the game with an injury.

Right Guard

Dallas owner Jerry Jones received a lot of criticism when he signed Leonard Davis to a big contract last off-season, but it sure looks like it was worth it. Last week I noted that the Giants' Chris Snee might be the best guard in the league these days, so I'll just note now that Snee's 9.23 BR is second best among all guards. First is Davis with a 9.39 BR. Rex Hadnot had a nice game, which is a good reminder that you can't judge a player based off of one game. Cooper Carlisle, on the other hand, looked a lot worse than he had in week two; although, the guys on the San Diego defensive line in 2007 were a tougher match-up than the ones playing for Denver.

Right Tackle

This is becoming a theme: this is the third time a Dolphins' game has been included in these weekly ratings and each time the opposing right tackle—in this case the Browns' duo of Kevin Shaffer and Ryan Tucker—has rated the highest of any right tackle that week. Consider also that in week one the opposing right tackle (for most of the game) was Washington's Stephon Heyer who this week looked miserable against the Packers. The sometimes maligned Nick Kaczur had a good game against the aggressive Dallas pass rush. He has been the best right tackle in the 2007 games reviewed thus far, posting a 8.97 BR. Another player who had a decent week six, the even more maligned L.J. Shelton, is second best with an 8.81 BR.

In the Trenches: 2007 week five

Games Reviewed
New York Jets (24) at New York Giants (35)
Miami Dolphins (19) at Houston Texans (22)
Atlanta Falcons (13) at Tennessee Titans (20)
Chicago Bears (27) at Green Bay Packers (20)
Dallas Cowboys (25) at Buffalo Bills (24)

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

Unlike in week one, Ferguson matched his reputation for being a weak run blocker (6.52 RBR), but he exceled in the passing game (9.22 PBR). Jason Peters struggled against DeMarcus Ware and Chris Canty. Chad Clifton's play at times looked uncharacteristically uninspired.

Left Guard

Chester Pitts had a strong game against Miami's poor interior line. Justin Blalock played as poorly as any linemen I've seen in the games reviewed thus far. Or, he held that distinction until Falcons reserve tackle Renardo Foster entered the game.

Center

Rex Hadnot moved to center later in the game and only saw 18 snaps there. Had he had more snaps he almost certainly wouldn't have had the best BR of the centers this week. Olin Kreutz was surprisingly ineffective, not just in the power run game but in getting out and making blocks at the second level as well.

Right Guard

I knew he was good, but Chris Snee might be the best guard in football. Leonard Davis was once again impressive. Anthony Alabi only had 18 plays, but did well when he was in there. Roberto Garza didn't start out so bad but really seemed to wear down as the game wore on.

Right Tackle

Two Dolphins games have showed up so far and both times the right tackles have played very, very well against them. If there were an opponent adjustment, Eric Winston wouldn't be at the top. Mark Tauscher rebounded from a sub-par game the prior week and his play at times was dominating in this contest which the Packers should have won.

2008 NFL Draft "Redo" (part 1)

Instead of engaging in the absurd (but nonetheless fun) process of grading the teams on their drafts a day later, I'm going to pit myself against the GMs and redo their drafts. In five years, I can look back and see what an idiot I am, er, I mean, which of us did better.
  I'm going to mostly stick with whatever trades the teams made. There will be a couple of exceptions, such as Atlanta trading two second round picks and a fourth to Washington for the 21st overall pick (I don't see the value at a position of need for Atlanta at that high of a pick, especially since I view Sam Baker as more of a guard or right tackle prospect).
  Also, since the teams have a lot more information on most of the guys that go in the last couple of rounds, I might tend to stick with the prospects they selected there unless I have a strong feeling about the pick.
  The other thing is that a lot of the same names will probably appear throughout, since I'm not redoing all of the GMs' work at the same time; obviously the prospects I most like and see as having the most value at various points in the draft are going to be “selected” more often.
  Names in bold are “matches” between my picks and a team's actual pick.

Arizona Cardinals
Quick hit: Love the DRC pick, in a close call over Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (16): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Round 2 (50): Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
Round 3 (81): Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Round 4 (116): Kenny Iwebema, DE, Iowa
Round 5 (149): Timothy Hightower, RB, Richmond
Round 6 (185): Christopher Harrington, DE, Texas A&M
Round 7 (225): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

Draft Redo
Round 1 (16): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Round 2 (50): Jason Jones, DE/DT, Eastern Michigan
Round 3 (81): Cliff Avril, OLB/DE, Purdue
Round 4 (116): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (149): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (185): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (225): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

Atlanta Falcons
Quick hit: Would have tried to find a way to trade down from the third pick to land Vanderbilt offensive tackle Chris Williams, rather than trade up to the twenty-first pick for Sam Baker. Also, I never would have signed Michael Turner (at least not for the kind of money he got), so a trade up into the late first round would have been to snatch Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (3): Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Round 1 (21): Sam Baker, OT, Southern California
Round 2 (37): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 3 (68): Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
Round 3 (84): Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
Round 3 (98): Thomas DeCoud, S, California
Round 5 (138): Robert James, LB, Arizona State
Round 5 (154): Kroy Bierman, MLB, Montana
Round 6 (172): Thomas Brown, RB, Georgia
Round 7 (212): Wilrey Fontenot, CB, Arizona
Round 7 (232): Keith Zinger, TE, LSU

Draft Redo
Round 1 (3): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 2 (34): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 2 (37): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 2 (48): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (68): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (98): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (103): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 5 (138): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (172): Jaymar Johnson, WR, Jackson State
Round 7 (212): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (232): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Baltimore Ravens
Quick hit: In hindsight it certainly appears that the Ravens traded up higher than they needed to to land Joe Flacco. But you couldn't have known that at the time, and at the very least, I think they needed to get ahead of Miami at the top of round two. The earlier trade down with Jacksonville was a wonderful move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (18): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Round 2 (55): Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Round 3 (71): Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
Round 3 (86): Tom Zbikowski, S, Notre Dame
Round 3 (99): Oniel Cousins, G, UTEP
Round 4 (106): Marcus Smith, WR, New Mexico
Round 4 (133): David Hale, OT, Weber State
Round 6 (206): Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati
Round 7 (215): Justin Harper, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 7 (240): Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma

Draft Redo
Round 1 (18): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Round 2 (55): Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Round 3 (71): Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
Round 3 (86): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 3 (99): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (106): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (133): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 6 (206): Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati
Round 7 (215): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (240): Fernando Velasco, G/C, Georgia

Buffalo Bills
Quick hit: In terms of quality prospects filling needs, Buffalo's first two picks were as good as any team not selecting twice in the first round.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (11): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Round 2 (41): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Round 3 (72): Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (114): Reggie Corner, CB, Akron
Round 4 (132): Derek Fine, TE, Kansas
Round 5 (147): Alvin Bowen, LB, Iowa State
Round 6 (179): Xavier Omon, RB, NW Missouri State
Round 7 (219): Demetrius Bell, OT, Northwestern State
Round 7 (224): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
Round 7 (251): Kennard Cox, CB, Pittsburgh

Draft Redo
Round 1 (11): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Round 2 (41): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Round 3 (72): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (114): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (132): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (147): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (179): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (219): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
Round 7 (224): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
Round 7 (251): Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland

Carolina Panthers
Quick hit: Panthers received exceptional value with their third round picks, and trading up to land Otah with the nineteenth pick wasn't a bad move either. There's no way, though, that I would have taken Stewart over Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (13): Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Round 1 (19): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Round 3 (67): Charles Godfrey, CB/S, Iowa
Round 3 (74): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 5 (141): Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville
Round 6 (181): Nick Hayden, DT, Wisconsin
Round 7 (221): Hilee Taylor, DE/OLB, UNC
Round 7 (241): Jeff Schwartz, G, Oregon
Round 7 (250): Mackenzy Bernadeau, G, Bentley

Draft Redo
Round 1 (13): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 1 (19): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 3 (67): Charles Godfrey, CB/S, Iowa
Round 3 (74): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 5 (141): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (181): John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
Round 7 (221): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
Round 7 (241): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (250): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

Chicago Bears
Quick hit: If you're reading this through you can probably tell I love some of these picks: Williams, Bennett, and Davis are some of my favorite prospects. And the Bears added great value with Harrison, Bowman, and Monk. But a couple of big mistakes stand out: selecting Forte over Chad Henne and going with safety Craig Steltz in round 4.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (14): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (44): Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
Round 3 (70): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (90): Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
Round 4 (120): Craig Steltz, S, LSU
Round 5 (142): Zack Bowman, CB, Nebraska
Round 5 (158): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (208): Ervin Baldwin, DE, Michigan State
Round 7 (222): Chester Adams, G, Georgia
Round 7 (243): Joey LaRocque, LB, Oregon State
Round 7 (247): Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State
Round 7 (248): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (14): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (44): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (70): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (90): Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
Round 4 (120): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (142): Zack Bowman, CB, Nebraska
Round 5 (158): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (208): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (222): Chester Adams, G, Georgia
Round 7 (243): David Roach, S, TCU
Round 7 (247): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers
Round 7 (248): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Cincinnati Bengals
Quick hit: My mock draft was not a raging success, but there was at least one nail hit squarely on the head: “The Saints will find a way to leap frog the Bengals—whether it means trading with the Chiefs or the Patriots—and snatch Sedrick Ellis from them.” The Bengals should have traded up to prevent that from happening, but, as I also noted in my mock: “the stingy Bengals won't dare do anything as adventurous as that.” They blew it even further by not taking Trevor Laws in the second, but recovered with some fine picks on day two.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (9): Keith Rivers, LB, Southern Cal
Round 2 (46): Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina
Round 3 (77): Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
Round 3 (97): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (112): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 5 (145): Jason Shirley, DT, Fresno State
Round 6 (177): Corey Lynch, S, Appalachian State
Round 6 (207): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (244): Angelo Craig, OLB, Cincinnati
Round 7 (196): Mario Urrutia, WR, Louisville

Draft Redo
Round 1 (9): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 2 (46): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 3 (77): Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Purdue
Round 3 (97): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (112): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 5 (145): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (177): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (207): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (244): Angelo Craig, OLB, Cincinnati
Round 7 (196): Danny Amendola, WR, Texas Tech

Cleveland Browns
Quick hit: Given the limited picks they had, the Browns did pretty well for themselves. I wouldn't have traded up for Beau Bell, but it's not a bad move; I view Jonathan Goff as the safer pick, but Bell can reasonably be said to have a higher ceiling.

Actual Draft
Round 4 (104): Beau Bell, ILB, UNLV
Round 4 (111): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (190): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (191): Paul Hubbard, WR, Wisconsin
Round 7 (231): Alex Hall, OLB, St. Augustine's

Draft Redo
Round 4 (104): Jonathan Goff, ILB, Vanderbilt
Round 4 (111): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (190): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (191): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (231): Alex Hall, OLB, St. Augustine's

Dallas Cowboys
Quick hit: The toughest call in the entire draft might have been Dallas's regarding which running back to take with the twenty-second pick. Do you take the most complete running back available, Rashard Mendenhall? Or do you go with the more complementary piece to Marion Barber, Felix Jones, with the added benefit that it doesn't create a “carries controversy” with the media and in the locker room?

Actual Draft
Round 1 (22): Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Round 1 (25): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Round 2 (61): Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
Round 4 (122): Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
Round 5 (143): Orlando Scandrick, CB, Boise State
Round 6 (167): Erik Walden, OLB, Middle Tennessee St

Draft Redo
Round 1 (22): Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Round 1 (25): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Round 2 (61): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 4 (122): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (143): Marcus Howard, OLB, Georgia
Round 6 (167): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Denver Broncos
Quick hit: The Broncos did a good job of filling many of their roster holes via free agency. The offensive line was the one glaring area they needed to address.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (12): Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Round 2 (42): Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (108): Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green
Round 4 (119): Jack Williams, CB, Kent
Round 5 (139): Ryan Torain, RB, Arizona State
Round 5(148): Carlton Powell, DT, Virginia Tech
Round 6 (183): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (220): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (227): Peyton Hills, FB, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (12): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (42): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 4 (108): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (119): Jack Williams, CB, Kent
Round 5 (139): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5(148): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (183): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (220): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (227): Peyton Hills, FB, Arkansas

Detroit Lions
Quick hit: I don't understand selecting Gosder Cherilus with Jeff Otah still on the board, but you have to like Millen's logic of taking the tackle first and then grabbing the running back later. I'm not crazy about the Dizon pick, but I can't fault him too much, because with Mayo off the board there wasn't a lot in the way of potential cover two middle linebackers.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (17): Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Round 2 (45): Jordan Dizon, LB, Colorado
Round 3 (64): Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Round 3 (87): Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
Round 3 (92): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 5 (136): Kenneth Moore, WR, Wake Forest
Round 5 (146): Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
Round 7 (216): Landon Cohen, DE, Ohio
Round 7 (218): Caleb Campbell, S, Army

Draft Redo
Round 1 (17): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Round 2 (45): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 3 (64): Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Round 3 (87): Phillip Wheeler, MLB, Georgia Tech
Round 3 (92): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 5 (136): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (146): Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
Round 7 (216): Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland
Round 7 (218): Caleb Campbell, S, Army

Green Bay Packers
Quick hit: The Packers don't generally make too many mistakes in the draft, but it's not like they're the Colts, right?

Actual Draft
Round 2 (36): Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
Round 2 (56): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (60): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 3 (91): Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
Round 4 (102): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (135): Josh Sitton, OT, Central Florida
Round 5 (150): Breno Giacomini, OT, Louisville
Round 7 (209): Matt Flynn, QB, LSU
Round 7 (217): Brett Swain, WR, San Diego State

Draft Redo
Round 2 (36): Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Round 2 (56): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (60): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 3 (91): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (102): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (135): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (150): Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
Round 7 (209): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (217): Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan

Houston Texans
Quick hit: Houston's selection of Duane Brown was considered a reach by some, but I had him as the fourth best tackle prospect in the draft, and given the run on tackles (including some I had rated much below him, i.e., Gosder Cherilus), it was a perfectly reasonable move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (26): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (79): Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 3 (89): Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
Round 4 (118): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 5 (151): Frank Okam, DT, University of Texas
Round 6 (173): Dominque Barber, SS, Minnesota
Round 7 (223): Alex Brink, QB, Washington State

Draft Redo
Round 1 (26): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (79): Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 3 (89): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (118): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 5 (151): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (173): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 7 (223): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Indianapolis Colts
Quick hit: The Colts entire starting lineup last year consisted of players they drafted. Yeah, so I won't be challenging them on too many picks. Nevermind that getting Marcus Howard in the fifth round was one of the biggest steals of this draft.

Actual Draft
Round 2 (59): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 3 (93): Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Round 4 (127): Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky
Round 5 (161): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (196): Tom Santi, TE, Virginia
Round 6 (201): Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
Round 6 (202): Mike Hart, RB, Michigan
Round 6 (205): Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
Round 7 (236): Jamey Richard, C, Buffalo

Draft Redo
Round 2 (59): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 3 (93): Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Round 4 (127): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (161): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (196): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 6 (201): Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
Round 6 (202): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 6 (205): Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
Round 7 (236): Rodney Van, CB, UCLA

Jacksonville Jaguars
Quick hit: The Jags put most of their effort into moving way up in round one in order to take defensive end Derrick Harvey. They took another end in round two, making it clear that improving their pass rush was their one and only priority in this draft. Given the overall talent level of this team, and the wide receivers they added during free agency, I can't argue too much with their reasoning.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (8): Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Round 2 (52): Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
Round 5 (155): Thomas Williams, OLB, USC
Round 5 (159): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 7 (213): Chauncey Washington, RB, USC

Draft Redo
Round 1 (8): Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Round 2 (52): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 5 (155): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 5 (159): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 7 (213): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Kansas City Chiefs
Quick hit: Some teams are able to go best player available with each pick because they're so stocked with talent. The Chiefs were in the even more rare position of being able to go best player available because they needed starters at just about every position other than running back and tight end, and even those positions lacked quality reservers.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (5): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 1 (15): Branden Albert, G, Virginia
Round 2 (35): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (73): Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
Round 3 (76): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 3 (82): DaJuan Morgan, S, North Carolina State
Round 4 (105): Will Franklin, WR, Missouri
Round 6 (170): Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson
Round 6 (182): Kevin Robinson, WR, Utah State
Round 7 (210): Brian Johnston, DE, Gardner-Webb
Round 7 (239): Mike Merrit, TE, Central Florida

Draft Redo
Round 1 (5): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 1 (15): Branden Albert, T/G, Virginia
Round 2 (35): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (73): Jeremy Zuttah, G/C, Rutgers
Round 3 (76): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 3 (82): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (105): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 6 (170): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 6 (182): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (210): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (239): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

In the Trenches: 2007 week four

Games Reviewed
Pittsburgh Steelers (14) at Arizona Cardinals (21)
Chicago Bears (27) at Detroit Lions (37)
Green Bay Packers (23) at Minnesota Vikings (16)
Kansas City Chiefs (30) at San Diego Chargers (16)
Denver Broncos (20) at Indianapolis Colts (38)

Game Notes
The season Blocker Rating averages dip a bit after implementing BR 2.0 for week four. But the dip can't be attributed only to the changes I made to the rating system, as the five games from this week contained some atrocious blocking. The Chiefs were so bad that I'm pretty sure watching their game against the Chargers gave me the flu. I might have had a swifter recovery if I hadn't tried to stomach the Bears-Lions match up right away. Finally, it was more luck than good judgment that saved me from the Steeler game until I was clear headed.
  A couple of week ago, after he had a good game against the Seahawks, I wondered if Arizona guard Reggie Wells always played that well and if he might not be one of the most underrated linemen in the NFL. After seeing two more Arizona games I feel confident in saying he's not all that. He's an adequate starter, and he plays the game the right way, but it's his teammate, left tackle Mike Gandy, who has been looking like a guy who deserves more accolades. Unfortunately, sample size is still too small to make any definitive statement, but Gandy's 8.99 BR for the season is tops so far among left tackles with at least 50 charted snaps (which includes guys like Walter Jones, Matt Light, Chad Clifton, Chris Samuels, and Marcus McNeil) and fourth among LTs with at least 20 snaps (behind Flozell Adams, Joe Thomas, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson).
  Two right tackles, Kansas City's Kyle Turley and Detroit's Jonathan Scott, posted the first BRs below 6. Turley was replaced by Chris Terry, who played poorly himself but virtually shined in comparison to Turley (and most of the rest of the Chiefs' line). Meanwhile, Scott was a replacement for George Foster who had committed his seventh false start penalty of the year. Foster had not been playing well by any stretch of the imagination, but even with another false start he would have been better than Scott.

Blocker Ratings
Average BRs (through four weeks)


Left Tackle


Left Guard


Center


Right Guard


Right Tackle

2008 Free Agency: The Good, The Bad, and the Bears

This is a continuation of last night's post, which considered the top, or bottom, losers so far in free agency. "The good" was covered with a post on the top three teams, followed by a post with another three teams, in which my less-is-more philosophy became readily apparent.

So where did I leave off? Ah, yes, the Bears, whose work in free agency has been heavily criticized by just about everybody, including their great fans. But while it hasn't been pretty, I stopped short of including them among the biggest losers in free agency so far.

I don't think the Bears' situation is as bad as it looks. So what can Jerry Angelo be thinking? First of all, he brought Lance Briggs back, so let's give him some props for that. But alright, I know, defense isn't the problem: it's all of the holes on offense. So let's get to it.

There wasn't a reliable quarterback to bring in this off-season. No one significantly better than Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton was walking through that door. Those two aren't very good, but they know the system that's in place giving them the edge over anyone else who might have been brought in. What's that mean? Well, not a lot of passing probably.

In Greg Olsen the Bears have a young tight end with great speed who can stretch the field; in Desmond Clark they have a solid veteran tight end who has really performed well the past two years. More two–tight-end sets ought to follow. It suits the personnel and would mean even fewer passes to the wide receivers. Not re-signing Bernard Berrian looks bad now, but in the long run, well, that was a lot of money the Vikings threw at a guy who isn't a proven number one receiver. So not bringing Berrian back isn't necessarily a bad move. And the other wide receiver spot has actually been modestly upgraded from the overrated Muhsin Muhammad to Marty Booker. Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, and Mark Bradley understandably don't make the fan base comfortable, but in limited roles they could be adequate. And the Bears still can make a play for a second-tier free agent like Jabar Gaffney, Bryant Johnson, D.J. Hackett or Javon Walker, any of whom would be an affordable upgrade over the players above.

As far as the offensive line, there simply wasn't a stud tackle to be had among the free agents. To shore up the interior, they could have made a play for former Titan guard Jacob Bell who recently signed with the Rams (a nice signing by them). But if the Bears have confidence in Josh Beekman—I know I had confidence in him as a prospect coming out of Boston College last year—then maybe the idea is to spend a little less and just try to bring someone in to compete with Beekman for the starting left guard spot. Former Dolphin Rex Hadnot would probably be my choice, but maybe ex-Seahawk Floyd Womack can do better in a new locale. Another, more expensive possibility: the Ravens only gave restricted free agent Jason Brown the second-round tender. Brown is a good young lineman who received Dr. Z's vote for the 2007 All-Pro team. Z watches linemen more closely than any other AP voter and until I get my blocker rating system in place, I'll defer to his rankings more often than not. If the Bears aren't sold on Beekman then they should make a play for Brown. He's a known quantity, whereas any second-round or other draft pick is, at best, an educated guess. As for the tackle spot, Vanderbilt's Chris Williams is going to be awfully tempting if he's still on the board when the Bears pick at fourteen.

If the Bears, don't have the quarterback to put up a good passing attack, and aren't going to invest heavily in a number one receiver because of that, then they need to upgrade their running back situation. After three seasons, 2005 fourth overall pick Cedric Benson appears to be a bust. Adrian Peterson is a competent, all-purpose backup, but not as good when he starts for stretches at a time. The diminutive Garrett Wolfe is a scat back who needs to get the ball out in space in order to have success, and I don't envision a long career for him. Help can certainly be had in the draft, even if they don't take Rashard Mendenhall in round one as I have them doing in my mock draft.

So while the Bears haven't helped themselves too much this off-season, they did take a major step in keeping their good defense intact. And given the limited ability to significantly improve their passing game because of the lack of quality options available at quarterback and offensive tackle, the Bears are wise to proceed with caution and not blow a lot of cap space for moves that, at best, would only marginally help them. Less is more in free agency. And patience—it's true—is a virtue.

2008 Free Agency: Beautiful Losers

Enough about the free agency "winners" so far. Let's get to the dirty work of discussing the losers. Everyone with an eye on the situation is hammering the Chicago Bears. Mike and Mike were going off on them this morning. John Clayton included Chicago among his losers. As did Andrew Kneeland over at bleacher report. Even draft guru Scott Wright (NFL Draft Countdown) has gotten in on the act by offering his services to the Bears on his blog. The Patriots were the other team getting universally panned, though re-signing Moss has staved off some of the criticism. So will those two teams find a place in my bottom five? The suspense is poking you in the back I'm sure.

5. Atlanta Falcons
It's not like the Falcons have been awful. Resigning Chris Redman was a smart move. Erik Coleman can be the starting free safety at a decent price. Tight end Ben Hartsock is a good blocker and the kind of low-level signing that has analysts heaping praise on Bill Parcells (and not Jeff Ireland?) in Miami. But you have to start rebuilding a team from the lines back, and Atlanta needs too much help on both the offensive and defensive lines to rely solely on the draft. Not only do they need to add starters at offensive and defensive tackle, but they could use an upgrade at guard and some depth at defensive end. But the thing that puts them on this list is giving all that money to Micheal Turner. He didn't look as good in 2007 as he did in previous seasons and I don't expect him to do much more for the Falcons than LaMont Jordan did for the Raiders. They could have gotten a cheaper option in free agency to share carries with Jerious Norwood, and they could have drafted an underrated mid-to-late-round prospect like Cory Boyd or Thomas Brown.

4. Oakland Raiders
Hey, Tommy Kelly was on my All Free Agent team, but that doesn't mean I would have re-signed him to a seven-year, $50 million contract with $18.125 million guaranteed. As I wrote in January: “. . . with the right kind of contract he'll be a great addition for a team as either a 3-technique DT in a four-man line or as an end in a 3-4 scheme” The key phrase there is “with the right kind of contract.” Maybe I wasn't specific enough, but Oakland's deal? That doesn't qualify. And, look, another one of my All Free Agent teamers, Gibril Wilson found his way to Oakland, too. Six years, $39 million, $16 million guaranteed. A bargain! Al Davis was once a great football mind, but now: sharp as a soda. No, but seriously, the one good thing Raiders fans can take away from this is that both signings are of capable players, even if the prices paid were a bit steep.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
As I noted last night, John Clayton has the Jaguars as a winner (as does Kneeland over at bleacher report for that matter), but all the Jags have done is a whole lot of nothing. The only positive I can add to what I wrote last night is that the Marcus Stroud trade garnered them a couple of extra picks (a third and a fifth) in the upcoming draft.

2. New York Jets
I really liked the Jets drafts the past couple of years, but their other off-season moves aren't looking too good. They should have treated Pete Kendall better last year, as he was the engine that made the rest of that line work so well in 2006. Making Alan Faneca the highest paid lineman in football would have been a good move two or three years ago, but he's coming off his worst season in a long time. He's overrated right now, and linemen don't typically get better as they hit their mid thirties. Speaking of which, Damien Woody will turn 31 in November, and though he finished last season with four strong games at right tackle, he was largely a bust in Detroit after signing his last lucrative free agent contract. No way I give him $5 million per year for five years with $11 million guaranteed. Not quite as bad is the Calvin Pace signing. He's another one of my All Free Agent guys (these teams are making me hate myself!). But "value" was a big part of the considerations for those guys, and no way did I see Pace getting a $42-million, six-year deal with $22 million guaranteed. He has basically had one good season. The fact that it's the Jets signing Pace makes it impossible not to compare it to their re-signing of Bryan Thomas last year after he finally posted a good season. The result, Thomas was right back to suckitude in 2007. On the plus side, the Jets did well in acquiring Kris Jenkins who will help improve a defensive line that was the worst in the league against the run. And they also picked up decent value for Jonathan Vilma (they could get as much as a second-round pick in 2009 depending on how Vilma plays and if he extends his contract with the Saints).

1. San Francisco 49ers
To me it's a bigger free agency sin to make a lot of noise and accomplish little to nothing than to stand pat and possibly miss out on an opportunity or two. Isaac Bruce for two years and $6 million ain't so bad. With Larry Allen retiring that offense can use a little veteran leadership and, of course, he knows the Mike Martz offense. And linebacker Dontarrious Thomas is a nice mid-level signing that could fill a hole, but if it doesn't work out won't cost them much. The 49ers go south, though, with the DeShaun Foster signing. It's a small contract that isn't going to hamper the 49ers even if they cut him before the season. But my opinion of Foster's game is so low that just bringing him in like this is a waste of resources. Justin Smith has never had a double-digit sack year; he's coming off his worst season by far; and I'm not sure he's the right fit for the 49ers defensive scheme. No way do I give him $45 million over six years with $20 million guaranteed. As much as I dislike the Smith deal, I guess it's the worthless signings—like kick returner Allen Rossum and backup quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan—that put the 49ers over the top, or rather, push them to the very bottom.

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OK, so what about the Patriots? As long as the Pats have Tom Brady and they can put him on the field with guys like Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, and Laurence Maroney. They'll be just fine. 2006 first-round wide receiver Chad Jackson is waiting for his chance to contribute and should be able to have an impact. But if he can't cut it, the recently re-signed Kelley Washington could help out. The defense is going to take more work to keep together, but last year's first round pick Brandon Merriweather should be ready to help out the secondary, and Bill Belichick has a way of recycling linebackers. Plus, the Pats have that top-ten draft pick via the 49ers, which they should be able to turn into a defensive starter.

And about those Bears? I'll get to them in the morning.

Team Needs: Chicago Bears

1. Offensive Tackle
It won't matter who the Bears quarterback is if they can't protect him. Left tackle John Tait, 33, played adequately in 2007 but is clearly on the downside of his career and would benefit from a move to right tackle. Last year's starter at right tackle, Fred Miller, is 35, played poorly last year, and should be released, or at least asked to take a significant pay cut. Backup John St. Clair turns 30 this summer and hasn't played well when given the chance to start.

2. Quarterback
The struggles of Rex Grossman have been well documented. According to DPAR & DVOA, Grossman, Brian Griese, and Kyle Orton are basically triplets.

3. Wide Receiver
The best of the bunch, Bernard Berrian, is a free agent. Soon to turn 35, Muhsin Muhammad's career is winding down. Although part of it can be attributed to the poor quarterback play, the Bears didn't get the production they had hoped for when the signed Muhammad in 2005; they better not still be hoping for it. Rashied Davis failed to improve on the potential he showed in 2006, while 2005 second-rounder Mark Bradley had his most disappointing season in a career that has seen him catch only 38 passes.

4. Running Back
After three seasons it sure looks like 2005 fourth overall pick Cedric Benson is a bust. Adrian Peterson is a competent, all-purpose backup, but not as good when he starts for stretches at a time. The diminutive Garrett Wolfe is a scat back who needs to get the ball out in space in order to have success.

5. Left Guard
36-year-old former All-Pro Ruben Brown spent the last half of the year on IR and will be a free agent. Terrence Metcalf stepped in when Brown went down, but he didn't play well and was benched in favor of tackle John St. Clair. The Bears might have their starter on the roster already in 2007 fourth-rounder Josh Beekman, but he only saw action in one game last season and it might be too early to count on him.

6. Strong Safety
Adam Archuleta was no better in Chicago than he was in D.C., while Brandon McGowan was little better than Archuleta. If the Bears stand pat at this position, 2007 fifth-rounder Kevin Payne might have the inside track for the starting job.

7. and 8. Linebacker
Weakside backer Lance Briggs and reserve/special team standout Brendon Ayanbadejo are free agents, with the untested Jamar Williams the likely replacement for Briggs. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher is coming off of neck surgery, which was probably minor and could leave his neck stronger for next season, but the Bears aren't releasing the details. Strongside backer Hunter Hillenmeyer is solid but not spectacular. Unless Briggs is re-signed, the Bears need to add depth at all three spots.

9. Defensive Tackle
Tommie Harris remains one of the league's best, but Darwin Walker is a likely cap cut after being outplayed by the Bears' other 2007 free agent defensive tackle, Anthony Adams. 2006 third-rounder Dusty Dvoracek has played only one game in two years because of injuries, but had won the starting nose tackle job going into last season. The Bears could be all set here, but because of the question marks and the importance of the position, a quality backup or prospect should be acquired.