2008 NFL Draft "Redo" (part 1)

Instead of engaging in the absurd (but nonetheless fun) process of grading the teams on their drafts a day later, I'm going to pit myself against the GMs and redo their drafts. In five years, I can look back and see what an idiot I am, er, I mean, which of us did better.
  I'm going to mostly stick with whatever trades the teams made. There will be a couple of exceptions, such as Atlanta trading two second round picks and a fourth to Washington for the 21st overall pick (I don't see the value at a position of need for Atlanta at that high of a pick, especially since I view Sam Baker as more of a guard or right tackle prospect).
  Also, since the teams have a lot more information on most of the guys that go in the last couple of rounds, I might tend to stick with the prospects they selected there unless I have a strong feeling about the pick.
  The other thing is that a lot of the same names will probably appear throughout, since I'm not redoing all of the GMs' work at the same time; obviously the prospects I most like and see as having the most value at various points in the draft are going to be “selected” more often.
  Names in bold are “matches” between my picks and a team's actual pick.

Arizona Cardinals
Quick hit: Love the DRC pick, in a close call over Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (16): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Round 2 (50): Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
Round 3 (81): Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Round 4 (116): Kenny Iwebema, DE, Iowa
Round 5 (149): Timothy Hightower, RB, Richmond
Round 6 (185): Christopher Harrington, DE, Texas A&M
Round 7 (225): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

Draft Redo
Round 1 (16): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Round 2 (50): Jason Jones, DE/DT, Eastern Michigan
Round 3 (81): Cliff Avril, OLB/DE, Purdue
Round 4 (116): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (149): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (185): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (225): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

Atlanta Falcons
Quick hit: Would have tried to find a way to trade down from the third pick to land Vanderbilt offensive tackle Chris Williams, rather than trade up to the twenty-first pick for Sam Baker. Also, I never would have signed Michael Turner (at least not for the kind of money he got), so a trade up into the late first round would have been to snatch Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (3): Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Round 1 (21): Sam Baker, OT, Southern California
Round 2 (37): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 3 (68): Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
Round 3 (84): Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
Round 3 (98): Thomas DeCoud, S, California
Round 5 (138): Robert James, LB, Arizona State
Round 5 (154): Kroy Bierman, MLB, Montana
Round 6 (172): Thomas Brown, RB, Georgia
Round 7 (212): Wilrey Fontenot, CB, Arizona
Round 7 (232): Keith Zinger, TE, LSU

Draft Redo
Round 1 (3): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 2 (34): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 2 (37): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 2 (48): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (68): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (98): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (103): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 5 (138): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (172): Jaymar Johnson, WR, Jackson State
Round 7 (212): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (232): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Baltimore Ravens
Quick hit: In hindsight it certainly appears that the Ravens traded up higher than they needed to to land Joe Flacco. But you couldn't have known that at the time, and at the very least, I think they needed to get ahead of Miami at the top of round two. The earlier trade down with Jacksonville was a wonderful move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (18): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Round 2 (55): Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Round 3 (71): Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
Round 3 (86): Tom Zbikowski, S, Notre Dame
Round 3 (99): Oniel Cousins, G, UTEP
Round 4 (106): Marcus Smith, WR, New Mexico
Round 4 (133): David Hale, OT, Weber State
Round 6 (206): Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati
Round 7 (215): Justin Harper, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 7 (240): Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma

Draft Redo
Round 1 (18): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Round 2 (55): Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Round 3 (71): Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
Round 3 (86): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 3 (99): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (106): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (133): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 6 (206): Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati
Round 7 (215): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (240): Fernando Velasco, G/C, Georgia

Buffalo Bills
Quick hit: In terms of quality prospects filling needs, Buffalo's first two picks were as good as any team not selecting twice in the first round.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (11): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Round 2 (41): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Round 3 (72): Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (114): Reggie Corner, CB, Akron
Round 4 (132): Derek Fine, TE, Kansas
Round 5 (147): Alvin Bowen, LB, Iowa State
Round 6 (179): Xavier Omon, RB, NW Missouri State
Round 7 (219): Demetrius Bell, OT, Northwestern State
Round 7 (224): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
Round 7 (251): Kennard Cox, CB, Pittsburgh

Draft Redo
Round 1 (11): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Round 2 (41): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Round 3 (72): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (114): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (132): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (147): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (179): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (219): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
Round 7 (224): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
Round 7 (251): Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland

Carolina Panthers
Quick hit: Panthers received exceptional value with their third round picks, and trading up to land Otah with the nineteenth pick wasn't a bad move either. There's no way, though, that I would have taken Stewart over Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (13): Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Round 1 (19): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Round 3 (67): Charles Godfrey, CB/S, Iowa
Round 3 (74): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 5 (141): Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville
Round 6 (181): Nick Hayden, DT, Wisconsin
Round 7 (221): Hilee Taylor, DE/OLB, UNC
Round 7 (241): Jeff Schwartz, G, Oregon
Round 7 (250): Mackenzy Bernadeau, G, Bentley

Draft Redo
Round 1 (13): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 1 (19): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 3 (67): Charles Godfrey, CB/S, Iowa
Round 3 (74): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 5 (141): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (181): John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
Round 7 (221): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
Round 7 (241): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (250): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

Chicago Bears
Quick hit: If you're reading this through you can probably tell I love some of these picks: Williams, Bennett, and Davis are some of my favorite prospects. And the Bears added great value with Harrison, Bowman, and Monk. But a couple of big mistakes stand out: selecting Forte over Chad Henne and going with safety Craig Steltz in round 4.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (14): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (44): Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
Round 3 (70): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (90): Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
Round 4 (120): Craig Steltz, S, LSU
Round 5 (142): Zack Bowman, CB, Nebraska
Round 5 (158): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (208): Ervin Baldwin, DE, Michigan State
Round 7 (222): Chester Adams, G, Georgia
Round 7 (243): Joey LaRocque, LB, Oregon State
Round 7 (247): Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State
Round 7 (248): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (14): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (44): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (70): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (90): Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
Round 4 (120): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (142): Zack Bowman, CB, Nebraska
Round 5 (158): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (208): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (222): Chester Adams, G, Georgia
Round 7 (243): David Roach, S, TCU
Round 7 (247): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers
Round 7 (248): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Cincinnati Bengals
Quick hit: My mock draft was not a raging success, but there was at least one nail hit squarely on the head: “The Saints will find a way to leap frog the Bengals—whether it means trading with the Chiefs or the Patriots—and snatch Sedrick Ellis from them.” The Bengals should have traded up to prevent that from happening, but, as I also noted in my mock: “the stingy Bengals won't dare do anything as adventurous as that.” They blew it even further by not taking Trevor Laws in the second, but recovered with some fine picks on day two.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (9): Keith Rivers, LB, Southern Cal
Round 2 (46): Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina
Round 3 (77): Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
Round 3 (97): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (112): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 5 (145): Jason Shirley, DT, Fresno State
Round 6 (177): Corey Lynch, S, Appalachian State
Round 6 (207): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (244): Angelo Craig, OLB, Cincinnati
Round 7 (196): Mario Urrutia, WR, Louisville

Draft Redo
Round 1 (9): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 2 (46): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 3 (77): Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Purdue
Round 3 (97): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (112): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 5 (145): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (177): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (207): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (244): Angelo Craig, OLB, Cincinnati
Round 7 (196): Danny Amendola, WR, Texas Tech

Cleveland Browns
Quick hit: Given the limited picks they had, the Browns did pretty well for themselves. I wouldn't have traded up for Beau Bell, but it's not a bad move; I view Jonathan Goff as the safer pick, but Bell can reasonably be said to have a higher ceiling.

Actual Draft
Round 4 (104): Beau Bell, ILB, UNLV
Round 4 (111): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (190): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (191): Paul Hubbard, WR, Wisconsin
Round 7 (231): Alex Hall, OLB, St. Augustine's

Draft Redo
Round 4 (104): Jonathan Goff, ILB, Vanderbilt
Round 4 (111): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (190): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (191): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (231): Alex Hall, OLB, St. Augustine's

Dallas Cowboys
Quick hit: The toughest call in the entire draft might have been Dallas's regarding which running back to take with the twenty-second pick. Do you take the most complete running back available, Rashard Mendenhall? Or do you go with the more complementary piece to Marion Barber, Felix Jones, with the added benefit that it doesn't create a “carries controversy” with the media and in the locker room?

Actual Draft
Round 1 (22): Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Round 1 (25): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Round 2 (61): Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
Round 4 (122): Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
Round 5 (143): Orlando Scandrick, CB, Boise State
Round 6 (167): Erik Walden, OLB, Middle Tennessee St

Draft Redo
Round 1 (22): Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Round 1 (25): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Round 2 (61): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 4 (122): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (143): Marcus Howard, OLB, Georgia
Round 6 (167): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Denver Broncos
Quick hit: The Broncos did a good job of filling many of their roster holes via free agency. The offensive line was the one glaring area they needed to address.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (12): Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Round 2 (42): Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (108): Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green
Round 4 (119): Jack Williams, CB, Kent
Round 5 (139): Ryan Torain, RB, Arizona State
Round 5(148): Carlton Powell, DT, Virginia Tech
Round 6 (183): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (220): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (227): Peyton Hills, FB, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (12): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (42): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 4 (108): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (119): Jack Williams, CB, Kent
Round 5 (139): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5(148): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (183): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (220): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (227): Peyton Hills, FB, Arkansas

Detroit Lions
Quick hit: I don't understand selecting Gosder Cherilus with Jeff Otah still on the board, but you have to like Millen's logic of taking the tackle first and then grabbing the running back later. I'm not crazy about the Dizon pick, but I can't fault him too much, because with Mayo off the board there wasn't a lot in the way of potential cover two middle linebackers.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (17): Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Round 2 (45): Jordan Dizon, LB, Colorado
Round 3 (64): Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Round 3 (87): Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
Round 3 (92): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 5 (136): Kenneth Moore, WR, Wake Forest
Round 5 (146): Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
Round 7 (216): Landon Cohen, DE, Ohio
Round 7 (218): Caleb Campbell, S, Army

Draft Redo
Round 1 (17): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Round 2 (45): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 3 (64): Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Round 3 (87): Phillip Wheeler, MLB, Georgia Tech
Round 3 (92): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 5 (136): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (146): Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
Round 7 (216): Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland
Round 7 (218): Caleb Campbell, S, Army

Green Bay Packers
Quick hit: The Packers don't generally make too many mistakes in the draft, but it's not like they're the Colts, right?

Actual Draft
Round 2 (36): Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
Round 2 (56): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (60): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 3 (91): Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
Round 4 (102): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (135): Josh Sitton, OT, Central Florida
Round 5 (150): Breno Giacomini, OT, Louisville
Round 7 (209): Matt Flynn, QB, LSU
Round 7 (217): Brett Swain, WR, San Diego State

Draft Redo
Round 2 (36): Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Round 2 (56): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (60): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 3 (91): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (102): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (135): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (150): Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
Round 7 (209): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (217): Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan

Houston Texans
Quick hit: Houston's selection of Duane Brown was considered a reach by some, but I had him as the fourth best tackle prospect in the draft, and given the run on tackles (including some I had rated much below him, i.e., Gosder Cherilus), it was a perfectly reasonable move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (26): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (79): Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 3 (89): Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
Round 4 (118): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 5 (151): Frank Okam, DT, University of Texas
Round 6 (173): Dominque Barber, SS, Minnesota
Round 7 (223): Alex Brink, QB, Washington State

Draft Redo
Round 1 (26): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (79): Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 3 (89): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (118): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 5 (151): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (173): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 7 (223): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Indianapolis Colts
Quick hit: The Colts entire starting lineup last year consisted of players they drafted. Yeah, so I won't be challenging them on too many picks. Nevermind that getting Marcus Howard in the fifth round was one of the biggest steals of this draft.

Actual Draft
Round 2 (59): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 3 (93): Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Round 4 (127): Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky
Round 5 (161): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (196): Tom Santi, TE, Virginia
Round 6 (201): Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
Round 6 (202): Mike Hart, RB, Michigan
Round 6 (205): Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
Round 7 (236): Jamey Richard, C, Buffalo

Draft Redo
Round 2 (59): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 3 (93): Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Round 4 (127): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (161): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (196): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 6 (201): Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
Round 6 (202): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 6 (205): Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
Round 7 (236): Rodney Van, CB, UCLA

Jacksonville Jaguars
Quick hit: The Jags put most of their effort into moving way up in round one in order to take defensive end Derrick Harvey. They took another end in round two, making it clear that improving their pass rush was their one and only priority in this draft. Given the overall talent level of this team, and the wide receivers they added during free agency, I can't argue too much with their reasoning.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (8): Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Round 2 (52): Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
Round 5 (155): Thomas Williams, OLB, USC
Round 5 (159): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 7 (213): Chauncey Washington, RB, USC

Draft Redo
Round 1 (8): Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Round 2 (52): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 5 (155): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 5 (159): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 7 (213): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Kansas City Chiefs
Quick hit: Some teams are able to go best player available with each pick because they're so stocked with talent. The Chiefs were in the even more rare position of being able to go best player available because they needed starters at just about every position other than running back and tight end, and even those positions lacked quality reservers.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (5): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 1 (15): Branden Albert, G, Virginia
Round 2 (35): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (73): Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
Round 3 (76): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 3 (82): DaJuan Morgan, S, North Carolina State
Round 4 (105): Will Franklin, WR, Missouri
Round 6 (170): Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson
Round 6 (182): Kevin Robinson, WR, Utah State
Round 7 (210): Brian Johnston, DE, Gardner-Webb
Round 7 (239): Mike Merrit, TE, Central Florida

Draft Redo
Round 1 (5): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 1 (15): Branden Albert, T/G, Virginia
Round 2 (35): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (73): Jeremy Zuttah, G/C, Rutgers
Round 3 (76): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 3 (82): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (105): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 6 (170): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 6 (182): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (210): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (239): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

In the Trenches: 2007 week four

Games Reviewed
Pittsburgh Steelers (14) at Arizona Cardinals (21)
Chicago Bears (27) at Detroit Lions (37)
Green Bay Packers (23) at Minnesota Vikings (16)
Kansas City Chiefs (30) at San Diego Chargers (16)
Denver Broncos (20) at Indianapolis Colts (38)

Game Notes
The season Blocker Rating averages dip a bit after implementing BR 2.0 for week four. But the dip can't be attributed only to the changes I made to the rating system, as the five games from this week contained some atrocious blocking. The Chiefs were so bad that I'm pretty sure watching their game against the Chargers gave me the flu. I might have had a swifter recovery if I hadn't tried to stomach the Bears-Lions match up right away. Finally, it was more luck than good judgment that saved me from the Steeler game until I was clear headed.
  A couple of week ago, after he had a good game against the Seahawks, I wondered if Arizona guard Reggie Wells always played that well and if he might not be one of the most underrated linemen in the NFL. After seeing two more Arizona games I feel confident in saying he's not all that. He's an adequate starter, and he plays the game the right way, but it's his teammate, left tackle Mike Gandy, who has been looking like a guy who deserves more accolades. Unfortunately, sample size is still too small to make any definitive statement, but Gandy's 8.99 BR for the season is tops so far among left tackles with at least 50 charted snaps (which includes guys like Walter Jones, Matt Light, Chad Clifton, Chris Samuels, and Marcus McNeil) and fourth among LTs with at least 20 snaps (behind Flozell Adams, Joe Thomas, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson).
  Two right tackles, Kansas City's Kyle Turley and Detroit's Jonathan Scott, posted the first BRs below 6. Turley was replaced by Chris Terry, who played poorly himself but virtually shined in comparison to Turley (and most of the rest of the Chiefs' line). Meanwhile, Scott was a replacement for George Foster who had committed his seventh false start penalty of the year. Foster had not been playing well by any stretch of the imagination, but even with another false start he would have been better than Scott.

Blocker Ratings
Average BRs (through four weeks)


Left Tackle


Left Guard


Center


Right Guard


Right Tackle

In the Trenches: 2007 week two

Games Reviewed
Cincinnati Bengals (51) at Cleveland Browns (45)
Minnesota Vikings (17) at Detroit Lions (20)
Oakland Raiders (20) at Denver Broncos (23)
Indianapolis Colts (22) at Tennessee Titans (20)
Seattle Seahawks (20) at Arizona Cardinals (23)

Top Linemen (by position)


Left Tackle
In this high-scoring shootout with the Bengals, Joe Thomas played like the rookie of the year candidate that he was. I'm looking forward to watching the Browns again to see if he keeps up this level of play. The only other left tackle with a BR over 9 was Seattle's Walter Jones (9.18). Unlike Thomas, who was tenacious and typically giving his all right up to the whistle, Jones often seemed to be getting by on talent and experience alone, doing just enough to get his job done.
  Arizona's Mike Gandy (8.93) stood out, playing exceptionally well for much of his game against the Seahawks before faltering a bit on the final few drives.
  Detroit's Jeff Backus (8.43) became the third left tackle to post a Run Blocker Rating (RBR) over 9 (9.38 RBR), following Chris Samuels (9.68 RBR) and Flozell Adams (9.44 RBR) who did so in week one. Unfortunately there was relatively little opportunity for him to run block in Mike Martz's pass-happy offense, and his overall BR was heavily affected by his shaky pass blocking.
  Indianapolis rookie Tony Ugoh (6.73) struggled in all phases of the game against the mighty Titans defense. He was the only left tackle this week to score below 8 and the first in the ten games reviewed so far to score below a 7 (last week's low BR for the position was Denver's Matt Lepsis's 7.96).

Left Guard
The second overall pick of the 2004 draft, Robert Gallery was supposed to be Oakland's starting left tackle for a decade. Instead, he has been considered a bust as he has been moved all over the line by his various coaches. Getting a chance to settle in at left guard, Gallery looked comfortable against the Broncos, consistently blocking well.
  Arizona's Reggie Wells (8.93) stood out with some really great blocks. If he always plays the way he did in this Seattle game, then I'd say he's one of the most underrated linemen in the NFL. We'll see what happens.
  Detroit's Edwin Mulitalo (8.86) was surprisingly stout in pass protection (9.63 PBR) but pretty bad in the running game (6.25 RBR).
  The most well-known left guards—Indianapolis's Ryan Lilja (8.78), Cleveland's Eric Steinbach (8.54), and Minnesota's Steve Hutchinson (8.54)—all had pretty average games, though each stood out at times with a number of key blocks.
  For the second week in a row, Cincinnati's Stacy Andrews (7.14) was the lowest rated left guard. In fact, he played worse against the Browns than he had against the Ravens. His 4.67 RBR was the second-worst I've recorded so far, ahead of only Jets right tackle Anthony Clement (4.17 against the Patriots in week 1).

Center
Cleveland's Hank Fraley was clearly the best center in the games reviewed this week; however, his 9.27 BR would have been just fifth last week. Center is still a high-scoring position, but whereas last week's lowest rated center (minimum ten plays) was 8.6, this week saw four centers score below that. And last week's top center, Tom Nalen, was just above that with a 8.67.
  Two centers had a BR below 8. Arizona rookie Lyle Sendlein (7.86), who got off to a rough start but played better as the game wore on. And Detroit's Dominic Raiola (7.86): another Lion lineman who struggled terribly with run blocking (5 RBR) against the Vikings.

Right Guard
The recently retired Benji Olson of the Titans was second among guards this week with a 9.27 BR. His 9.58 RBR was the best of any lineman.
  Detroit's Damien Woody's (9) looked like he knew it was a contract year all along, while Seattle's Chris Gray (8.98) and Oakland's Cooper Carlisle (8.94) also had good weeks.
  Minnesota's Artis Hicks (7.5) was the only right guard to rate below an 8.

Right Tackle
Last week, six of ten right tackles scored 9 or higher. This week brought none. David Stewart's quietly efficient 8.91BR led the way, while Cleveland's Kevin Shaffer (8.54) was the only other right tackle to rate above 8.5.
  Detroit's George Foster (7.14) was the lowest rated right tackle, and two others also had BRs below 8: Indianapolis's Ryan Diem (7.35), who clearly benefits (in terms of sacks allowed numbers) from having Peyton Manning as his quarterback, and Denver's Erik Pears (7.83) who dropped off quite a bit from his 8.7 performance against the Bills in week one.

One More Thing
Having reviewed offensive line play in detail for ten games now, one thing already stands out: the amount of yards lost because of linemen not even attempting to stay on their blocks, or linemen who just stop on a play because they feel like the QB should have gotten rid of the ball by then or the running back should have made his cut and shot through the hole already. Well, yes, maybe those things should have happened in the first four seconds of the play, but they didn't, and now you're man in running by you and slamming your QB into the ground, or he's caught the running back and stopped him for a five-yard gain, but it could have been ten yards or more if you'd just stayed with that defensive end and kept him slowed down for another step or two.
  I haven't counted the times I've seen these sort of things, but it's surprisingly high. If I were a coach or GM who wanted to improve his team's offense I would make this a point of emphasis. And even though I'm hesitant to make sweeping pronouncements about players on this account (again, I'm not tallying such instances), I make that "suggestion" with great confidence because it's apparent that this is more of a problem with some teams than it is with others.
  For instance, from what I have seen so far of the Browns and the Cardinals (and going back to week one, I'd have to say the Cowboys and Redskins as well), their linemen stand out as staying at it till the whistle blows. They always seem to be hustling and the only time they let up is when their job really is done, when it's clear their man will not be a factor in the play.
  With such a small sample I'm not going to finger particular players or teams that have exhibited this problem consistently so far, but you can bet that many of the players given to letting up early (though not all) have lower Blocker Ratings, even though it's not a specific criterion in the scoring.

2008 Free Agency: Instant Winners (cont'd)

Here is how a pro does his winners and losers list. My three "instant winners" from last night's post appear on John Clayton's list of five winners, which I think I'll take as a good thing (he's in the football writers Hall of Fame or something, right?). To the Dolphins, Eagles, and Vikings, Clayton adds the Browns and the Jags.

I could almost put the Browns ahead of the Eagles and the Vikings but for my reservations about the Shaun Rogers trade. The other moves are great. I love the trade for Corey Williams. He's a good young player who I think projects well as a 3-4 end, as I noted when I included him on my All Free Agent team. And Donte Stallworth, who you wouldn't want to bring in as your number one receiver, is perfect as a complement to Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurevicius. And I'm 100% behind re-signing Derek Anderson to a three-year deal. But the Rogers trade, man, I don't know. Talk about boom or bust. Leigh Bodden might not have been a great corner—he struggled more in 2007 than in previous seasons—but he's a solid starter. To part with him and a third round pick in what I think is shaping up to be one of the deeper drafts in recent memory (even the receiver position, which is weak at the top, will offer quite a few nice prospects in the second and third rounds), that's a lot for a guy who hasn't been dependable over the past couple of seasons. There's no doubt Rogers has All-Pro talent—he displayed it at times as recently as last season. And if he can keep himself in shape and play like that consistently, we'll look back and say the Browns were the big winners this off season. But that's not a bet I would make at this point.

I respectfully completely disagree with Clayton's take on the Jags. They overpaid for Jerry Porter, who would have been worth bringing in only at a lesser price. And the Troy Williamson trade just adds another first-round wide receiver bust to a roster filled with them. I'd rather have former Jag wide out Ernest Wilford any day (surprisingly Clayton doesn't even feel Wilford warrants a mention in his Miami paragraph). Cornerback Drayton Florence was toasted, popped up, and toasted again for San Diego in 2007. He's not going to help the Jags pass defense any more than Aaron Glenn did last year. And I'm not so sure that Cleo Lemons is an upgrade at backup quarterback over Quinn Gray.

So if it's not the Jags, who would my fifth "winner" be so far? How about the Dallas Cowboys. As a general rule, I believe less is definitely more in free agency, and Dallas has barely made a peep. Zach Thomas seems to be fine health-wise, what with the Patriots, Saints, and Cowboys all checking him out and giving him the OK. If so, he should be an upgrade over Akin Ayodele who was a better fit in the Parcells 3-4 than in Wade Phillips' scheme. Resigning Flozell Adams to a big contract might not have been the smartest move when you consider his age, but when you consider the other options at left tackle in free agency and after about the fifteenth pick of the draft—well, there aren't really any other options, at least not that can help immediately. Bringing Adams back seems like a necessary move for a team coming off of a 13-3 season. And by trading Jason Ferguson Dallas jumps up about 30 picks to the top of the sixth round and gains an extra sixth rounder for next year.

Honorable mention: the Detroit Lions. I believe strongly in building a defense from the front back (well who doesn't after that last Super Bowl, right?). But, the Lions just had to rid themselves of the Shaun Rogers conditioning soap opera. And, hey, not only did they get something in return for him. They picked up a solid starter at a position of need and a nice little third round pick to boot. Props to Mr. Millen for that one.

Team Needs: Detroit Lions

1. Defensive Tackle
Shaun Rogers still has All-Pro talent, but he has an all-world gut that seems to contribute to his inconsistent play as he wore down during games and over the course of the season. After early reports had the Lions ready to release or trade him rather than pay out a $1 million roster bonus due in March, the word now is that Detroit is content to keep him. Either way, young talent needs to be brought in at both tackle spots. Cory Redding regressed after adjusting nicely from end to tackle in 2006. Restricted free agent Langston Moore is a career backup, while 2005 second-rounder Shaun Cody has been a bust.

2. Offensive Tackle
Jeff Backus has started all of the Lions' 112 games since he was taken with the 18th overall selection in the 2001 draft, but he has never met expectations. While occasionally attaining the level of adequate (he ranked 10th in 2005 according to Yakuza Rich's statistical metric, he has more often played barely well enough (20th by YR in 2006 and 19th in 2007) to keep his job (although having Matt Millen as GM has probably helped there as well). The Lions should consider moving Backus to right tackle where the recently acquired George Foster lost the job, first to 2006 fifth-rounder Jonathan Scott and then, when Scott was placed on IR, to guard Damien Woody.

3. Middle Linebacker
Paris Lenon lacks the athleticism to be a quality starter at MLB in the Tampa Two and should be shifted to the strongside where Boss Bailey is expected to leave via free agency. Former starter Teddy Lehman hasn't played well since struggling with injuries in 05 and 06 and is also a free agent.

4. Cornerback
When healthy, Fernando Bryant is an average cornerback. That might not seem like anything to get excited about, but it's leaps and bounds better than the rest of the Detroit secondary. Bryant will turn 31 in March and some rumors have him contemplating retirement. After playing very well in 2006, Stanley Wilson was named the starter for 2007. But he performed terribly and was benched five games into the season. He's a free agent and all but gone. Rams castoff Travis Fisher was brought in on a one-year deal and wound up starting 13 games. As KC Joyner wrote entering the season: “Fisher had the worst [Yards Per Attempt] of any cornerback in 2005. He followed this up with the third worst YPA in 2006. He also had the 2nd worst success percentage.” Backup Keith Smith is another free agent.

5. Defensive End
Dewayne White was a decent free agent signing at a position of need last year in a weak market, but he's limited as an every down player. Kalimba Edwards signed a five-year, $20 million contract extension with $8 million in guarantees not too long ago, but after a 2007 season that saw him inactive down the stretch, he's expected to be released. Last year's second round pick Ikaika Alama-Francis is not a prospect I was high on, but it was expected he would be raw and take time to develop, so it's a bit early to make a call on him just yet. If the Lions stand pat, Alama-Francis should contend with Jared DeVries for the starting spot opposite White.

6. Tight end
Dan Campbell has struggled with injuries in Detroit, but he's a solid vet who would be worth the $1.8 million he's due in 2008 if he can stay healthy and help mentor a young draft pick. Sean McHugh made some plays on the few occasions when he was given a chance. He's not going to set the field on fire, but he's a restricted free agent worth brining back for depth.

7. Running back
Kevin Jones, who looked so promising as a rookie, has had his carrer derailed by injuries so far. This time he'll be returning from a torn ACL. Tatum Bell's talent was overstated when he was in Denver and after only playing five games in Detroit he's a free agent who won't be missed. T.J. Duckett is also a free agent. He produced 5.2 yards per carry but was underutilized by Mike Martz. The Lions should try to re-sign him. 2006 third-rounder Brian Calhoun hasn't shown much and can't be counted on to be the future here if Jones continues to struggle with injuries.

8. Guard
Edwin Mulitalo and Stephen Peterman are pencilled in as the starters and both could stand to be upgraded, especially Peterman, who is backup quality. The Lions might be OK here already, as they have some competition on the roster in 2006 undrafted free agent Frank Davis and 2007 fourth-rounder Manny Ramirez. Damien Woody waited till the last year of his contract to finally show up for the Lions and now he's a free agent again and looking for another team to sucker. If the Lions can't find a legit starter to bring in, they might have to settle for what they have and hope the young guys continue to improve.

9. Fullback
This is about as deep a draft for fullbacks as we'll see these days. I know it's an endangered position in today's NFL, but the Lions are nuts if they don't go after a more versatile upgrade over converted defensive tackle Jon Bradley.

10. Quarterback
Jon Kitna's fine for the short term. The Lions can win with him if only they could fill their many other needs. New quarterback coach Scot Loeffler will try to bring along 2007 second-rounder Drew Stanton and 2005 fifth-rounder Dan Orlovsky. I wasn't high on either of them as prospects, so if I were in Matt Millen's shoes I wouldn't be content with those two as my developmental guys, but he's the GM and I'm just a lowly blogger.