In the Trenches: 2007 week five

Games Reviewed
New York Jets (24) at New York Giants (35)
Miami Dolphins (19) at Houston Texans (22)
Atlanta Falcons (13) at Tennessee Titans (20)
Chicago Bears (27) at Green Bay Packers (20)
Dallas Cowboys (25) at Buffalo Bills (24)

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

Unlike in week one, Ferguson matched his reputation for being a weak run blocker (6.52 RBR), but he exceled in the passing game (9.22 PBR). Jason Peters struggled against DeMarcus Ware and Chris Canty. Chad Clifton's play at times looked uncharacteristically uninspired.

Left Guard

Chester Pitts had a strong game against Miami's poor interior line. Justin Blalock played as poorly as any linemen I've seen in the games reviewed thus far. Or, he held that distinction until Falcons reserve tackle Renardo Foster entered the game.

Center

Rex Hadnot moved to center later in the game and only saw 18 snaps there. Had he had more snaps he almost certainly wouldn't have had the best BR of the centers this week. Olin Kreutz was surprisingly ineffective, not just in the power run game but in getting out and making blocks at the second level as well.

Right Guard

I knew he was good, but Chris Snee might be the best guard in football. Leonard Davis was once again impressive. Anthony Alabi only had 18 plays, but did well when he was in there. Roberto Garza didn't start out so bad but really seemed to wear down as the game wore on.

Right Tackle

Two Dolphins games have showed up so far and both times the right tackles have played very, very well against them. If there were an opponent adjustment, Eric Winston wouldn't be at the top. Mark Tauscher rebounded from a sub-par game the prior week and his play at times was dominating in this contest which the Packers should have won.

2008 NFL Draft "Redo" (part 1)

Instead of engaging in the absurd (but nonetheless fun) process of grading the teams on their drafts a day later, I'm going to pit myself against the GMs and redo their drafts. In five years, I can look back and see what an idiot I am, er, I mean, which of us did better.
  I'm going to mostly stick with whatever trades the teams made. There will be a couple of exceptions, such as Atlanta trading two second round picks and a fourth to Washington for the 21st overall pick (I don't see the value at a position of need for Atlanta at that high of a pick, especially since I view Sam Baker as more of a guard or right tackle prospect).
  Also, since the teams have a lot more information on most of the guys that go in the last couple of rounds, I might tend to stick with the prospects they selected there unless I have a strong feeling about the pick.
  The other thing is that a lot of the same names will probably appear throughout, since I'm not redoing all of the GMs' work at the same time; obviously the prospects I most like and see as having the most value at various points in the draft are going to be “selected” more often.
  Names in bold are “matches” between my picks and a team's actual pick.

Arizona Cardinals
Quick hit: Love the DRC pick, in a close call over Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (16): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Round 2 (50): Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
Round 3 (81): Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Round 4 (116): Kenny Iwebema, DE, Iowa
Round 5 (149): Timothy Hightower, RB, Richmond
Round 6 (185): Christopher Harrington, DE, Texas A&M
Round 7 (225): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

Draft Redo
Round 1 (16): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Round 2 (50): Jason Jones, DE/DT, Eastern Michigan
Round 3 (81): Cliff Avril, OLB/DE, Purdue
Round 4 (116): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (149): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (185): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (225): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

Atlanta Falcons
Quick hit: Would have tried to find a way to trade down from the third pick to land Vanderbilt offensive tackle Chris Williams, rather than trade up to the twenty-first pick for Sam Baker. Also, I never would have signed Michael Turner (at least not for the kind of money he got), so a trade up into the late first round would have been to snatch Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (3): Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Round 1 (21): Sam Baker, OT, Southern California
Round 2 (37): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 3 (68): Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
Round 3 (84): Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
Round 3 (98): Thomas DeCoud, S, California
Round 5 (138): Robert James, LB, Arizona State
Round 5 (154): Kroy Bierman, MLB, Montana
Round 6 (172): Thomas Brown, RB, Georgia
Round 7 (212): Wilrey Fontenot, CB, Arizona
Round 7 (232): Keith Zinger, TE, LSU

Draft Redo
Round 1 (3): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 2 (34): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 2 (37): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 2 (48): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (68): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (98): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (103): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 5 (138): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (172): Jaymar Johnson, WR, Jackson State
Round 7 (212): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (232): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Baltimore Ravens
Quick hit: In hindsight it certainly appears that the Ravens traded up higher than they needed to to land Joe Flacco. But you couldn't have known that at the time, and at the very least, I think they needed to get ahead of Miami at the top of round two. The earlier trade down with Jacksonville was a wonderful move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (18): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Round 2 (55): Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Round 3 (71): Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
Round 3 (86): Tom Zbikowski, S, Notre Dame
Round 3 (99): Oniel Cousins, G, UTEP
Round 4 (106): Marcus Smith, WR, New Mexico
Round 4 (133): David Hale, OT, Weber State
Round 6 (206): Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati
Round 7 (215): Justin Harper, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 7 (240): Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma

Draft Redo
Round 1 (18): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Round 2 (55): Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Round 3 (71): Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
Round 3 (86): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 3 (99): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (106): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (133): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 6 (206): Haruki Nakamura, S, Cincinnati
Round 7 (215): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (240): Fernando Velasco, G/C, Georgia

Buffalo Bills
Quick hit: In terms of quality prospects filling needs, Buffalo's first two picks were as good as any team not selecting twice in the first round.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (11): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Round 2 (41): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Round 3 (72): Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (114): Reggie Corner, CB, Akron
Round 4 (132): Derek Fine, TE, Kansas
Round 5 (147): Alvin Bowen, LB, Iowa State
Round 6 (179): Xavier Omon, RB, NW Missouri State
Round 7 (219): Demetrius Bell, OT, Northwestern State
Round 7 (224): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
Round 7 (251): Kennard Cox, CB, Pittsburgh

Draft Redo
Round 1 (11): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Round 2 (41): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Round 3 (72): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (114): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (132): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (147): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (179): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (219): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
Round 7 (224): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky
Round 7 (251): Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland

Carolina Panthers
Quick hit: Panthers received exceptional value with their third round picks, and trading up to land Otah with the nineteenth pick wasn't a bad move either. There's no way, though, that I would have taken Stewart over Mendenhall.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (13): Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Round 1 (19): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Round 3 (67): Charles Godfrey, CB/S, Iowa
Round 3 (74): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 5 (141): Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville
Round 6 (181): Nick Hayden, DT, Wisconsin
Round 7 (221): Hilee Taylor, DE/OLB, UNC
Round 7 (241): Jeff Schwartz, G, Oregon
Round 7 (250): Mackenzy Bernadeau, G, Bentley

Draft Redo
Round 1 (13): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 1 (19): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 3 (67): Charles Godfrey, CB/S, Iowa
Round 3 (74): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 5 (141): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (181): John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
Round 7 (221): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa
Round 7 (241): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (250): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

Chicago Bears
Quick hit: If you're reading this through you can probably tell I love some of these picks: Williams, Bennett, and Davis are some of my favorite prospects. And the Bears added great value with Harrison, Bowman, and Monk. But a couple of big mistakes stand out: selecting Forte over Chad Henne and going with safety Craig Steltz in round 4.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (14): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (44): Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
Round 3 (70): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (90): Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
Round 4 (120): Craig Steltz, S, LSU
Round 5 (142): Zack Bowman, CB, Nebraska
Round 5 (158): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (208): Ervin Baldwin, DE, Michigan State
Round 7 (222): Chester Adams, G, Georgia
Round 7 (243): Joey LaRocque, LB, Oregon State
Round 7 (247): Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State
Round 7 (248): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (14): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (44): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (70): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (90): Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
Round 4 (120): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (142): Zack Bowman, CB, Nebraska
Round 5 (158): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (208): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (222): Chester Adams, G, Georgia
Round 7 (243): David Roach, S, TCU
Round 7 (247): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers
Round 7 (248): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Cincinnati Bengals
Quick hit: My mock draft was not a raging success, but there was at least one nail hit squarely on the head: “The Saints will find a way to leap frog the Bengals—whether it means trading with the Chiefs or the Patriots—and snatch Sedrick Ellis from them.” The Bengals should have traded up to prevent that from happening, but, as I also noted in my mock: “the stingy Bengals won't dare do anything as adventurous as that.” They blew it even further by not taking Trevor Laws in the second, but recovered with some fine picks on day two.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (9): Keith Rivers, LB, Southern Cal
Round 2 (46): Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina
Round 3 (77): Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
Round 3 (97): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (112): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 5 (145): Jason Shirley, DT, Fresno State
Round 6 (177): Corey Lynch, S, Appalachian State
Round 6 (207): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (244): Angelo Craig, OLB, Cincinnati
Round 7 (196): Mario Urrutia, WR, Louisville

Draft Redo
Round 1 (9): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 2 (46): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 3 (77): Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Purdue
Round 3 (97): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (112): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 5 (145): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (177): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (207): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (244): Angelo Craig, OLB, Cincinnati
Round 7 (196): Danny Amendola, WR, Texas Tech

Cleveland Browns
Quick hit: Given the limited picks they had, the Browns did pretty well for themselves. I wouldn't have traded up for Beau Bell, but it's not a bad move; I view Jonathan Goff as the safer pick, but Bell can reasonably be said to have a higher ceiling.

Actual Draft
Round 4 (104): Beau Bell, ILB, UNLV
Round 4 (111): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (190): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (191): Paul Hubbard, WR, Wisconsin
Round 7 (231): Alex Hall, OLB, St. Augustine's

Draft Redo
Round 4 (104): Jonathan Goff, ILB, Vanderbilt
Round 4 (111): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (190): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (191): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (231): Alex Hall, OLB, St. Augustine's

Dallas Cowboys
Quick hit: The toughest call in the entire draft might have been Dallas's regarding which running back to take with the twenty-second pick. Do you take the most complete running back available, Rashard Mendenhall? Or do you go with the more complementary piece to Marion Barber, Felix Jones, with the added benefit that it doesn't create a “carries controversy” with the media and in the locker room?

Actual Draft
Round 1 (22): Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Round 1 (25): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Round 2 (61): Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
Round 4 (122): Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
Round 5 (143): Orlando Scandrick, CB, Boise State
Round 6 (167): Erik Walden, OLB, Middle Tennessee St

Draft Redo
Round 1 (22): Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Round 1 (25): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Round 2 (61): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 4 (122): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (143): Marcus Howard, OLB, Georgia
Round 6 (167): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Denver Broncos
Quick hit: The Broncos did a good job of filling many of their roster holes via free agency. The offensive line was the one glaring area they needed to address.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (12): Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Round 2 (42): Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (108): Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green
Round 4 (119): Jack Williams, CB, Kent
Round 5 (139): Ryan Torain, RB, Arizona State
Round 5(148): Carlton Powell, DT, Virginia Tech
Round 6 (183): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (220): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (227): Peyton Hills, FB, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (12): Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (42): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 4 (108): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (119): Jack Williams, CB, Kent
Round 5 (139): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5(148): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (183): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (220): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (227): Peyton Hills, FB, Arkansas

Detroit Lions
Quick hit: I don't understand selecting Gosder Cherilus with Jeff Otah still on the board, but you have to like Millen's logic of taking the tackle first and then grabbing the running back later. I'm not crazy about the Dizon pick, but I can't fault him too much, because with Mayo off the board there wasn't a lot in the way of potential cover two middle linebackers.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (17): Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Round 2 (45): Jordan Dizon, LB, Colorado
Round 3 (64): Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Round 3 (87): Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
Round 3 (92): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 5 (136): Kenneth Moore, WR, Wake Forest
Round 5 (146): Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
Round 7 (216): Landon Cohen, DE, Ohio
Round 7 (218): Caleb Campbell, S, Army

Draft Redo
Round 1 (17): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Round 2 (45): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 3 (64): Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Round 3 (87): Phillip Wheeler, MLB, Georgia Tech
Round 3 (92): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 5 (136): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (146): Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
Round 7 (216): Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland
Round 7 (218): Caleb Campbell, S, Army

Green Bay Packers
Quick hit: The Packers don't generally make too many mistakes in the draft, but it's not like they're the Colts, right?

Actual Draft
Round 2 (36): Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
Round 2 (56): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (60): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 3 (91): Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
Round 4 (102): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (135): Josh Sitton, OT, Central Florida
Round 5 (150): Breno Giacomini, OT, Louisville
Round 7 (209): Matt Flynn, QB, LSU
Round 7 (217): Brett Swain, WR, San Diego State

Draft Redo
Round 2 (36): Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Round 2 (56): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (60): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 3 (91): Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
Round 4 (102): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (135): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (150): Roy Schuening, G, Oregon State
Round 7 (209): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (217): Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan

Houston Texans
Quick hit: Houston's selection of Duane Brown was considered a reach by some, but I had him as the fourth best tackle prospect in the draft, and given the run on tackles (including some I had rated much below him, i.e., Gosder Cherilus), it was a perfectly reasonable move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (26): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (79): Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 3 (89): Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
Round 4 (118): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 5 (151): Frank Okam, DT, University of Texas
Round 6 (173): Dominque Barber, SS, Minnesota
Round 7 (223): Alex Brink, QB, Washington State

Draft Redo
Round 1 (26): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (79): Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 3 (89): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (118): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 5 (151): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (173): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 7 (223): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Indianapolis Colts
Quick hit: The Colts entire starting lineup last year consisted of players they drafted. Yeah, so I won't be challenging them on too many picks. Nevermind that getting Marcus Howard in the fifth round was one of the biggest steals of this draft.

Actual Draft
Round 2 (59): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 3 (93): Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Round 4 (127): Jacob Tamme, TE, Kentucky
Round 5 (161): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (196): Tom Santi, TE, Virginia
Round 6 (201): Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
Round 6 (202): Mike Hart, RB, Michigan
Round 6 (205): Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
Round 7 (236): Jamey Richard, C, Buffalo

Draft Redo
Round 2 (59): Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State
Round 3 (93): Phillip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
Round 4 (127): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (161): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (196): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 6 (201): Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
Round 6 (202): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 6 (205): Pierre Garcon, WR, Mount Union
Round 7 (236): Rodney Van, CB, UCLA

Jacksonville Jaguars
Quick hit: The Jags put most of their effort into moving way up in round one in order to take defensive end Derrick Harvey. They took another end in round two, making it clear that improving their pass rush was their one and only priority in this draft. Given the overall talent level of this team, and the wide receivers they added during free agency, I can't argue too much with their reasoning.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (8): Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Round 2 (52): Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
Round 5 (155): Thomas Williams, OLB, USC
Round 5 (159): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 7 (213): Chauncey Washington, RB, USC

Draft Redo
Round 1 (8): Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Round 2 (52): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 5 (155): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 5 (159): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 7 (213): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Kansas City Chiefs
Quick hit: Some teams are able to go best player available with each pick because they're so stocked with talent. The Chiefs were in the even more rare position of being able to go best player available because they needed starters at just about every position other than running back and tight end, and even those positions lacked quality reservers.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (5): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 1 (15): Branden Albert, G, Virginia
Round 2 (35): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (73): Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
Round 3 (76): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 3 (82): DaJuan Morgan, S, North Carolina State
Round 4 (105): Will Franklin, WR, Missouri
Round 6 (170): Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson
Round 6 (182): Kevin Robinson, WR, Utah State
Round 7 (210): Brian Johnston, DE, Gardner-Webb
Round 7 (239): Mike Merrit, TE, Central Florida

Draft Redo
Round 1 (5): Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Round 1 (15): Branden Albert, T/G, Virginia
Round 2 (35): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 3 (73): Jeremy Zuttah, G/C, Rutgers
Round 3 (76): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 3 (82): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (105): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 6 (170): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 6 (182): Spencer Larsen, LB, Arizona
Round 7 (210): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (239): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

2008 Free Agency: Beautiful Losers

Enough about the free agency "winners" so far. Let's get to the dirty work of discussing the losers. Everyone with an eye on the situation is hammering the Chicago Bears. Mike and Mike were going off on them this morning. John Clayton included Chicago among his losers. As did Andrew Kneeland over at bleacher report. Even draft guru Scott Wright (NFL Draft Countdown) has gotten in on the act by offering his services to the Bears on his blog. The Patriots were the other team getting universally panned, though re-signing Moss has staved off some of the criticism. So will those two teams find a place in my bottom five? The suspense is poking you in the back I'm sure.

5. Atlanta Falcons
It's not like the Falcons have been awful. Resigning Chris Redman was a smart move. Erik Coleman can be the starting free safety at a decent price. Tight end Ben Hartsock is a good blocker and the kind of low-level signing that has analysts heaping praise on Bill Parcells (and not Jeff Ireland?) in Miami. But you have to start rebuilding a team from the lines back, and Atlanta needs too much help on both the offensive and defensive lines to rely solely on the draft. Not only do they need to add starters at offensive and defensive tackle, but they could use an upgrade at guard and some depth at defensive end. But the thing that puts them on this list is giving all that money to Micheal Turner. He didn't look as good in 2007 as he did in previous seasons and I don't expect him to do much more for the Falcons than LaMont Jordan did for the Raiders. They could have gotten a cheaper option in free agency to share carries with Jerious Norwood, and they could have drafted an underrated mid-to-late-round prospect like Cory Boyd or Thomas Brown.

4. Oakland Raiders
Hey, Tommy Kelly was on my All Free Agent team, but that doesn't mean I would have re-signed him to a seven-year, $50 million contract with $18.125 million guaranteed. As I wrote in January: “. . . with the right kind of contract he'll be a great addition for a team as either a 3-technique DT in a four-man line or as an end in a 3-4 scheme” The key phrase there is “with the right kind of contract.” Maybe I wasn't specific enough, but Oakland's deal? That doesn't qualify. And, look, another one of my All Free Agent teamers, Gibril Wilson found his way to Oakland, too. Six years, $39 million, $16 million guaranteed. A bargain! Al Davis was once a great football mind, but now: sharp as a soda. No, but seriously, the one good thing Raiders fans can take away from this is that both signings are of capable players, even if the prices paid were a bit steep.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
As I noted last night, John Clayton has the Jaguars as a winner (as does Kneeland over at bleacher report for that matter), but all the Jags have done is a whole lot of nothing. The only positive I can add to what I wrote last night is that the Marcus Stroud trade garnered them a couple of extra picks (a third and a fifth) in the upcoming draft.

2. New York Jets
I really liked the Jets drafts the past couple of years, but their other off-season moves aren't looking too good. They should have treated Pete Kendall better last year, as he was the engine that made the rest of that line work so well in 2006. Making Alan Faneca the highest paid lineman in football would have been a good move two or three years ago, but he's coming off his worst season in a long time. He's overrated right now, and linemen don't typically get better as they hit their mid thirties. Speaking of which, Damien Woody will turn 31 in November, and though he finished last season with four strong games at right tackle, he was largely a bust in Detroit after signing his last lucrative free agent contract. No way I give him $5 million per year for five years with $11 million guaranteed. Not quite as bad is the Calvin Pace signing. He's another one of my All Free Agent guys (these teams are making me hate myself!). But "value" was a big part of the considerations for those guys, and no way did I see Pace getting a $42-million, six-year deal with $22 million guaranteed. He has basically had one good season. The fact that it's the Jets signing Pace makes it impossible not to compare it to their re-signing of Bryan Thomas last year after he finally posted a good season. The result, Thomas was right back to suckitude in 2007. On the plus side, the Jets did well in acquiring Kris Jenkins who will help improve a defensive line that was the worst in the league against the run. And they also picked up decent value for Jonathan Vilma (they could get as much as a second-round pick in 2009 depending on how Vilma plays and if he extends his contract with the Saints).

1. San Francisco 49ers
To me it's a bigger free agency sin to make a lot of noise and accomplish little to nothing than to stand pat and possibly miss out on an opportunity or two. Isaac Bruce for two years and $6 million ain't so bad. With Larry Allen retiring that offense can use a little veteran leadership and, of course, he knows the Mike Martz offense. And linebacker Dontarrious Thomas is a nice mid-level signing that could fill a hole, but if it doesn't work out won't cost them much. The 49ers go south, though, with the DeShaun Foster signing. It's a small contract that isn't going to hamper the 49ers even if they cut him before the season. But my opinion of Foster's game is so low that just bringing him in like this is a waste of resources. Justin Smith has never had a double-digit sack year; he's coming off his worst season by far; and I'm not sure he's the right fit for the 49ers defensive scheme. No way do I give him $45 million over six years with $20 million guaranteed. As much as I dislike the Smith deal, I guess it's the worthless signings—like kick returner Allen Rossum and backup quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan—that put the 49ers over the top, or rather, push them to the very bottom.

              * * *

OK, so what about the Patriots? As long as the Pats have Tom Brady and they can put him on the field with guys like Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, and Laurence Maroney. They'll be just fine. 2006 first-round wide receiver Chad Jackson is waiting for his chance to contribute and should be able to have an impact. But if he can't cut it, the recently re-signed Kelley Washington could help out. The defense is going to take more work to keep together, but last year's first round pick Brandon Merriweather should be ready to help out the secondary, and Bill Belichick has a way of recycling linebackers. Plus, the Pats have that top-ten draft pick via the 49ers, which they should be able to turn into a defensive starter.

And about those Bears? I'll get to them in the morning.

Team Needs: Atlanta Falcons

1. Quarterback
The Falcons made a good move in resigning Chris Redman, who was their best quarterback last season, to a two-year deal. And they may have cleared enough cap space with their many off-season cuts to keep Joey Harrington and his $2.5 million salary. But they need to get their future starter, which they should be able to do in the draft.

2. Offensive Tackle
Devastated by injuries (they started four different left tackles last season), Atlanta's offensive line was one of the worst. The unit ranked dead last in Adjusted Line Yards and finished in the bottom third of the leauge (23rd) in Adjusted Sack Rate. Undersized tackle Todd Weiner is 32 and coming off of a knee injury, but he can play either side and should be able to hold down one of the starting jobs. The other is up in the air, with Quinn Ojinnaka, D'Anthony Batiste, and a host of others battling for spots on the team.

3. Defensive Tackle
Former All-Pro, Rod Coleman was a necessary cap cut, but without him the Falcons are especially thin on talent up front. Sixth-rounder Trey Lewis was a pleasant surprise as a space eater inside and could be a solid two-down player. 2005 third-rounder Jonathan Babineaux has been inconsistent, but might be better off subbing in for Lewis on passing downs. Montavious Stanley and Jesse Mahelona are already journeymen after two seasons in the league.

4. Middle Linebacker
32-year-old Keith Brooking is ill-suited to be the starting middle linebacker again. He's scheduled to make $5 million in 2008 and is among the next in the cap-cut line.

5. Wide Receiver
2005 first-rounder Roddy White finally started to reach the potential he showed that made him a high draft pick, which is especially good because 2004 first-rounder Michael Jenkins continues to underwhelm. Joe Horn was another in a long line of disappointing free agent signings and he's not likely to be back.

6. Tight End
Alge Crumpler was always a little overrated, and now that he's battling knee problems that look like they might be a chronic issue, it was a wise decision to err on the side of adding cap space. 2007 fourth-rounder Martrez Milner is a decent blocking back who finished the season on IR and could be an asset in two tight end sets, but the Falcons need to add a new number one here.

7. Guard
Tyson Clabo, who filled in at right tackle last season, has the inside track for the right guard spot, while left guard Justin Blalock, Atlanta's second round pick last year, will have to show improvement to hold down his starting job (although, with so many other holes to be filled, the job could be his by default).

8. Defensive End
The often injured John Abraham started all sixteen games for only the second time in his eight-year career, recording 10 of Atlanta's 25 sacks. 2007 first-rounder Jamaal Anderson was a major disappointment, failing to deliver a single sack. Having just turned 22, Anderson obviously still has upside; a year in an NFL strength and conditioning program should go a long way toward improving his game, as long as he has the drive. While their starters at end are set, the Falcons need to add depth late in the draft.

9. Strong Safety
Even if Lawyer Milloy is retained for the 2008 season, it will be the 34-year-old strong safety's last year in Atlanta and probably the league. Sixth-rounder Darren Stone is the backup who could be given a chance to start if Milloy's cut.

10. Kicker
Morten Anderson will turn 48 this summer. He's my favorite all-time kicker, but I can't imagine he's going to reach his goal of kicking in the NFL when he's 50. Last season had to be the end of the road for him.

Roster Evaluation: Atlanta Falcons

Quaterback
Unfortunately for the Falcons their best quarterback in 2007, Chris Redman, is a free agent. They should make an effort to re-sign him because it doesn't look like there's going to be a better option in free agency. Joey Harrington is due $2.5 million and will likely be cut. Byron Leftwich is due the same salary plus a $1.15 million option bonus. He was just plain awful and without a doubt should be let go.
 Whether or not the Falcons bring back Redman, they have to bring some decent competition for the job. Rex Grossman, Daunte Culpepper, and Josh McCown are the big names in free agency, and Atlanta should stay away from them all. Better competition for the starting job would be Quinn Gray, Shaun Hill, or even Bill Volek. Todd Collins would have been a nice option if they had pursued Al Saunders for head coach or offensive coordinator.
 There's not a quaterback in this draft I would take with a top-five pick. The Falcons should sit tight and see if Brian Brohm falls to the second round. If not, Josh Johnson out of San Diego, could be had with a mid-round pick. While Johnson is still a bit raw, he has the skills to someday be Michael Vick 2.0: a dynamic playmaker and a smarter, better passer than Vick was.

Running Back
Warrick Dunn has been one of my favorite players to watch over the years, but it's time for the Falcons to say goodbye to him. Jerious Norwood didn't get nearly enough touches last year, and while Norwood isn't a twenty-carries-a-game feature back, there are plenty of options in free agency or the draft to team him with a productive backfield mate.
 As a second day pick, South Carolina's Cory Body would be an excellent complement to Norwood, as would Georgia back Thomas Brown.
 Fullback Ovie Mughelli went from being an all-pro for Baltimore in 2006 to seeing limited action for Atlanta last season. New Head Coach Mike Smith needs to make better use of Mughelli's skills, especially given the highly questionable quality of the offensive line.

Wide Receiver
2005 first-rounder Roddy White finally started to reach the potential he showed that made him a high draft pick, which is especially good because 2004 first-rounder Michael Jenkins continues to underwhelm. Joe Horn was another in a long line of disappointing free agent signings and he's not likely to be back.
 There's not a heck of a lot in free agency that can help the Falcons at this point. Bernard Berrian is at the head of the class, but he doesn't seem like the right fit for the Falcons at this time. New GM Thomas Dimitroff comes over from New England and he may want to try to capture some of that Patriots magic by signing Jabar Gaffney.
 The draft is deep at the wide receiver position and there is sure to be a top-rated WR on the board when the Falcons pick in the second round. California's Lavelle Hawkins, Vanderbilt's Earl Bennett, or Florida's Andre Caldwell should be there and any of them would be a solid addition to the Falcon offense.

Tight End
Alge Crumpler was always a little overrated, and now that he's battling knee problems that look like they might be a chronic issue, he could very well be done. 2007 fourth-rounder Martrez Milner is a decent blocking back who finished the season on IR and should be an asset in two tight end sets.
 The Falcons should shy away from the big name tight ends in free agency. Dallas Clark excels partly because of the system he's in and L.J. Smith has never quite attained the level expected of him—he seems like the kind of signing the Falcons have made in recent years only to regret it a year or two later. I do like Ben Troupe, if he can be signed cheaply—maybe even on a one or two year contract with incentives—because he's still only 25 and has that upside.
 With all of Atlanta's needs they probably don't want to go for a tight end too early. Michigan State's Kellen Davis in round three would be a nice pickup, though it might be two or three seasons before he pays dividends. Kentucky's Jacob Tamme is a mid-to-late round guy who could be a nice complement to Milner.

Offensive Line
Devastated by injuries (the Falcons started four different left tackles last season), the offensive line was one of the worst in the league. The unit ranked dead last in Football Outsider's Adjusted Line Yards metric, and finished in the bottom third of the leauge (23rd) in FO's Adjusted Sac Rate.
 Atlanta will have to replace starting left tackle Wayne Gandy who is coming off a torn ACL at age 37. Undersized tackle Todd Weiner is 32 and also coming off of a knee injury, but he can play either side and should be able to hold down one of the starting jobs. Undrafted rookie Renardo Foster, who was brought along from Louisville by Bobby Petrino, started two games in place of Gandy before suffering his own torn ACL; he will have to battle for one of the backup spots. 2006 fifth-rounder Quinn Ojinnaka will have to show great improvement to stick with the team.
 If the Falcons are going to make a splash in free agency this should be the spot. Stacy Andrews could be brought in to play right tackle, which would allow Weiner to man the left side until his replacement can be developed. If that's the case, a sleeper such as Northern Iowa's Brandon Keith would be a nice late-round selection, or they could look at a potentially undervalued prospect like Virginia Tech's Duane Brown.
 Right guard Kynan Forney was largely ineffective last season following a 2006 campaign cut short by a shoulder injury. Forney is due to make $3 million in 2008, the last year of a five-year deal, making it almost certain he'll have to try to regain his old form on a different team. That leaves Tyson Clabo, who filled in at right tackle last season, with the inside track for the right guard spot.
 Left guard Justin Blalock, Atlanta's second round pick last year, will have to show improvement to hold down his starting job; although with so many other holes to be filled, the job could be his by default.
 Veteran center Todd McClure seems likely to return as the starter, with 2007 sixth-rounder Doug Datish, who spent the entire season on injured reserve, as his backup. The Falcons would be wise to select late in the draft a lineman such as Georgia's Fernando Velasco who could help out at guard or center.

Defensive Line
The often injured John Abraham started all sixteen games for only the second time in his eight-year career, recording 10 of Atlanta's 25 sacks. 2007 first-rounder Jamaal Anderson was a major disappointment, failing to deliver a single sack. Having just turned 22, Anderson obviously still has upside; a year in an NFL strength and conditioning program should go a long way toward improving his game, as long as he has the drive. While their starters at end are set, the Falcons should look to add depth late in the draft.
 The inside positions are less settled. Former All-Pro tackle, Rod Coleman got off to a slow start due to an off-season injury and finished the season on IR with a torn tricep. Coleman will turn 32 this summer and could be a cap casualty as the Falcons look to rebuild the line. Sixth-rounder Trey Lewis was a pleasant surprise as a space eater inside and could be a solid two-down player. 2005 third-rounder Jonathan Babineaux has been inconsistent, but might be better off subbing in for Lewis on passing downs. That would help, too, because there's currently no quality depth inside at all.
 With their first round pick the Falcons should have a shot at either Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey, and they should definitely select the one still on the board.

Linebackers
Strongside linebacker Michael Boley is one of the most underrated defenders in the league and played at an All-Pro level last season. Weakside backer Demorrio Williams is a free agent and seems unlikely to return with 2007 fourth-rounder Stephen Nicholas showing promise. The big question is Keith Brooking who played out of position in the middle. If Atlanta wants to contend for a division title, they can't afford to do that again. The 32-year-old Brooking is scheduled to make $5 million next year and is almost certainly a cap cut.
 Atlanta has no need to spend in free agency for a linebacker. They should address the middle spot by selecting either Oklahoma's Curtis Lofton or Tennessee's Jerod Mayo in the second round, or Georgia Tech's Phillip Wheeler in the third.


Defensive Backs
As underrated as Boley is, DeAngelo Hall is at least that much overrated. He's not bad, but he's far from great, and no where near being the shutdown corner he has sometimes been portrayed as. Second-rounder Chris Houston flashed his abilities at times, but was largely inconsistent. As long as he continues to improve, the other starting job is his to lose. Sixth-rounder David Irons also has to make strides in his game if he's to challenge Lewis Sanders as the nickel back.
 Strong safety Lawyer Milloy has been good for veteran leadership the past couple of seasons, but that's about it. While his base salary of $1.7 million isn't prohibitive, I see little reason for a rebuilding team sorely in need of cap space to bring him back. Free safety Chris Crocker is a free agent and the Falcons would be better served by taking some of the dollars freed up by their cap cuts and making a play for Gibril Wilson, Ken Hamlin, or Eugene Wilson. 2006 second-rounder Jimmy Williams appears to be a bust, but will be kept around to see if the new coaching staff can finally get something out of him. Sixth-rounder Darren Stone is the backup strong safety and could be given a chance to start if Milloy's cut. And as with most teams in a position similar to the Falcons, I like Yeremiah Bell as a value signing/short-term solution at strong safety.

Kicker
Morten Anderson will turn 48 this summer. He's my favorite all-time kicker, but I can't imagine he's going to reach his goal of kicking in the NFL when he's 50. Last season had to be the end of the road for him. Rather than invest in a big name free-agent kicker like Seattle's Josh Brown, the Falcons should use a late draft pick—perhaps on Georgia's Brandon Coutu if he's on the board—or bring in a mix of undrafted free agents and street free agents to contend for the job.

Punter
Michael Koenen is among the top punters in the league, though you might not recognize it by looking at net average alone, where he ranked a respectable ninth in the league. Koenen led the NFL with 31 fair catches: 12 better than second placers Kansas City's Dustin Colquitt and San Diego's Mike Scifres. Koenen also landed 30 punts inside the 20 (tied for fourth) against only 5 touchbacks. As a bonus, Koenen is solid at kickoffs (eighth in touchback percent, tenth in average yards) and the 25-year-old should be a Falcon for many years to come.