In the Trenches: 2007 week eight

Games Reviewed
Indianapolis Colts (31) at Carolina Panthers (7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (24) at Cincinnati Bengals (13)
Washington Redskins (7) at New England Patriots (52)

Unfortunately there were only three NFL Replay games for week eight. But at least I got my first look at the Carolina Panthers, and overall the line play was pretty good, especially at right tackle where no one had a below average Blocker Rating.

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

For the third time (out of three 2007 season games reviewed so far) Matt Light puts up an above average BR. I'm surprised he has done so well, though I expect his play will drop off later in the season. I still say Chris Samuels is one of the best left tackles in the game, and definitely one of the most fun to watch, even though his 8.57 BR on the season so far ranks only ninth (and no, I'm not a Redskins fan). Levi Jones looked off on his game and was most ineffective with his run blocking (6.75 RBR). Charlie Johnson struggled in both pass and run blocking and easily had the worst game of any of this week's linemen.

Left Guard

Finally, I got to review a game in which Logan Mankins looked like one of the NFL's top guards. Unfortunately for Jets fans, Alan Faneca was once again less effective than the average left guard; on the other hand, he should still be about nine plays per game better than Adrien Clarke. For Jets fans keeping score at home here are the relevant 2007 BRs so far: Pete Kendall, 8.64 BR (242 plays); Faneca, 8.29 BR (161 plays); Clarke, 7.39 BR (95 plays).

Center

As bad as Mahan looked the first time I reviewed one of his games, he has been decent the second two times. Really all of the centers this week were just that: decent, average. Except for Dan Koppen who, like his Patriot linemates, dominated the Redskins defensive front.

Right Guard

Including Super Bowl XLII, I've now reviewed four Patriots games, and in each game Stephen Neal has outperformed Logan Mankins. Neal doesn't have the same ability at pulling that Mankins does, but he seems to be stronger at the point of attack and more effective with blocks at the second level. Bobbie Williams had a relatively mistake-free game, but despite having the highest BR of the week, "steady" and "solid" seem like more apt descriptions of his game than "dominant" or even "great."

Right Tackle

The only below-average right tackle this week was New England's Ryan O'Callaghan who is not listed above because he was only in for six plays. Stacy Andrews, who had looked awful at left guard early in the year, did very well in both pass and run blocking. Nick Kaczur, like teammate Matt Light, continues to surprise. Willie Colon is shaping up to be the Steelers' top offensive lineman. Though I don't chart it due to the extra time it would take, I'd say that Todd Wade had the most double-team help of any of these other tackles and is definitely playing at a level a notch or two below all of them.

In the Trenches: 2007 week six

Games Reviewed
Oakland Raiders (14) at San Diego Chargers (28)
Washington Redskins (14) at Green Bay Packers (17)
New England Patriots (48) at Dallas Cowboys (27)
Miami Dolphins (31) at Cleveland Browns (41)
Minnesota Vikings (34) at Chicago Bears (31)

Blocker Ratings
Note: Players in green had above average Blocker Ratings; players in brown were below average.

Left Tackle

None of the left tackles had poor weeks, though it was disappointing to see favorites Chris Samuels, Joe Thomas, and Chad Clifton on the wrong side of average. Each struggled in the run game but did well in pass protection, as did Bryant McKinnie, Barry Sims, and Flozell Adams, who still managed an above-average BR in what was likely his worst performance of the season. Meanwhile, Vernon Carey, with three games reviewed, is having one of the best seasons of any tackle so far.

Left Guard

This is the third time I've reviewed a New England game, including the Super Bowl and 2007 week one (which used my earlier rating system which tended to yield higher scores) and Logan Mankins has yet to turn in a noticeably above-average game. On the other hand, since NFL Replay isn't given to showing blow outs, his best games probably aren't going to be considered here. Dielman and Hutchinson appear right where you would expect them to. Dielman is one of only two left guards with a BR over 9 so far this season (the other is New York Giant Rich Seubert, while Baltimore's Jason Brown is only a couple hundredths off).

Center

Casey Rabach left the game with a groin injury and there was a huge drop off for Washington when Mike Pucillo stepped in. Of the centers with at least 50 reviewed plays so far, Rabach has the second best BR (9.18) behind Denver's Tom Nalen (9.2). Andre Gurode struggled mightily with Vince Wilfork and the middle of that early-season Patriot defense. Olin Kreutz, going against those tough Minnesota defensive tackles, rebounded nicely from his rough week-five performance against Green Bay. San Diego's Nick Hardwick had a BR of 10, but only had six plays rated before leaving the game with an injury.

Right Guard

Dallas owner Jerry Jones received a lot of criticism when he signed Leonard Davis to a big contract last off-season, but it sure looks like it was worth it. Last week I noted that the Giants' Chris Snee might be the best guard in the league these days, so I'll just note now that Snee's 9.23 BR is second best among all guards. First is Davis with a 9.39 BR. Rex Hadnot had a nice game, which is a good reminder that you can't judge a player based off of one game. Cooper Carlisle, on the other hand, looked a lot worse than he had in week two; although, the guys on the San Diego defensive line in 2007 were a tougher match-up than the ones playing for Denver.

Right Tackle

This is becoming a theme: this is the third time a Dolphins' game has been included in these weekly ratings and each time the opposing right tackle—in this case the Browns' duo of Kevin Shaffer and Ryan Tucker—has rated the highest of any right tackle that week. Consider also that in week one the opposing right tackle (for most of the game) was Washington's Stephon Heyer who this week looked miserable against the Packers. The sometimes maligned Nick Kaczur had a good game against the aggressive Dallas pass rush. He has been the best right tackle in the 2007 games reviewed thus far, posting a 8.97 BR. Another player who had a decent week six, the even more maligned L.J. Shelton, is second best with an 8.81 BR.

2008 NFL Draft "Redo" (part 2)

The first part of this draft redo was posted last night.

Miami Dolphins
Quick hit: If Bill Parcells believes Jake Long was a better pick for the Dolphins than Chris Long, who am I to argue? I'll defer to Miami's Executive Vice President of Football Operations on this one.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (1): Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Round 2 (32): Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
Round 2 (57): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (66): Kendall Langford, DE, Hampton
Round 4 (110): Shawn Murphy, G, Utah State
Round 6 (176): Jalen Parmele, RB, Toledo
Round 6 (195): Donald Thomas, G, Connecticut
Round 6 (204): Lex Hilliard, RB, Montana
Round 7 (245): Lionel Dotson, DT, Arizona

Draft Redo
Round 1 (1): Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Round 2 (32): Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
Round 2 (57): Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
Round 3 (66): Jeremy Zuttah, G/C, Rutgers
Round 4 (110): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (176): Ahtyba Rubin, NT, Iowa State
Round 6 (195): Donald Thomas, G, Connecticut
Round 6 (204): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (245): Lionel Dotson, DT, Arizona

Minnesota Vikings
Quick hit: Two main things held the Vikings back last year: inconsistent quarterback play and the lack of a consistent pass rush from their front four. Tarvaris Jackson still has upside, so the Vikings can reasonably hope for improved quarterback play, and the addition of Jared Allen should go a long way toward generating a sufficient pass rush.

Actual Draft
Round 2 (43): Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State
Round 5 (137): John David Booty, QB, Southern California
Round 5 (152): Letroy Guion, DT, Florida State
Round 6 (187): John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
Round 6 (196): Jaymar Johnson, WR, Jackson State

Draft Redo
Round 2 (43): Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State
Round 5 (137): John David Booty, QB, Southern California
Round 5 (152): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 6 (187): John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
Round 6 (196): Jaymar Johnson, WR, Jackson State

New England Patriots
Quick hit: ESPN.com's instant draft analysis noted that “Mayo isn't quite as instinctive as Rivers.” I disagree strongly with that. Mayo's instincts might not be perfect, but he's better than Rivers in that department, which is why I don't think Rivers would have been a good fit at ILB in a 3-4 scheme.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (10): Jerod Mayo, ILB, Tennessee
Round 2 (62): Terrance Wheatley, CB, Colorado
Round 3 (78): Shawn Crable, OLB, Michigan
Round 3 (94): Kevin O'Connell, QB, San Diego State
Round 4 (129): Jonathan Wilhite, CB, Auburn
Round 5 (153): Matt Slater , WR, UCLA
Round 6 (197): Bo Ruud, ILB, Nebraska

Draft Redo
Round 1 (10): Jerod Mayo, ILB, Tennessee
Round 2 (62): Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
Round 3 (78): Shawn Crable, OLB, Michigan
Round 3 (94): Tyvon Branch, S, Connecticut
Round 4 (129): Jonathan Wilhite, CB, Auburn
Round 5 (153): Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee
Round 6 (197): Bo Ruud, ILB, Nebraska

New Orleans Saints
Quick hit: The trade up for Sedrick Ellis was a great move that will pay major dividends for the Saints' defense in 2008. And I had Tracy Porter rated higher than most did, so of course I love that pick.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (7): Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Round 2 (40): Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Round 5 (144): DeMario Pressley, DT, North Carolina St.
Round 5 (164): Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska
Round 6 (178): Taylor Mehlhaff, K, Wisconsin
Round 7 (237): Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan

Draft Redo
Round 1 (7): Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Round 2 (40): Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Round 5 (144): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 5 (164): Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska
Round 6 (178): Taylor Mehlhaff, K, Wisconsin
Round 7 (237): Adrian Arrington, WR, Michigan

New York Giants
Quick hit: I like what the Super Bowl champs did in the odd rounds, but don't agree very much with their picks in the even rounds.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (31): Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
Round 2 (63): Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
Round 3 (95): Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
Round 4 (123): Bryan Kehl, LB, BYU
Round 5 (165): Jonathan Goff, MLB, Vanderbilt
Round 6 (198): Andre' Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Round 6 (199): Robert Henderson, DE, Southern Miss

Draft Redo
Round 1 (31): Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
Round 2 (63): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Round 3 (95): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (123): Trae Williams, CB, South Florida
Round 5 (165): Jonathan Goff, MLB, Vanderbilt
Round 6 (198): Andre' Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Round 6 (199): Brandon Keith, OT, Northern Iowa

New York Jets
Quick hit: I typically have liked the Jets' drafts the past few years, but I'm feeling luke warm about this one. In fact, I'm undoing the trade up to get Dustin Keller—I just don't value one-dimensional tight end prospects that much.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (6): Vernon Gholston, DE/LB, Ohio State
Round 1 (30): Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
Round 4 (113): Dwight Lowery, CB, San Jose State
Round 5 (162): Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee
Round 6 (171): Marcus Henry, WR, Kansas
Round 7 (211): Nate Garner, OT, Arkansas

Draft Redo
Round 1 (6): Vernon Gholston, DE/LB, Ohio State
Round 2 (36): Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State
Round 4 (102): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (113): Dwight Lowery, CB, San Jose State
Round 6 (171): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (211): Chris Brown, FB/TE, Tennessee

Oakland Raiders
Quick hit: Given the money that the Raiders put into re-signing Tommy Kelly, and given the question marks in Vernon Gholston's game, Darren McFadden really was a good value pick. Fargas's contract was not expensive and Lamont Jordan has not been able to stay healthy since signing with Oakland.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (4): Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Round 4 (100): Tyvon Branch, CB/S, Connecticut
Round 4 (125): Arman Shields, WR, Richmond
Round 6 (169): Trevor Scott, DE, Buffalo
Round 7 (226): Chaz Schilens, WR, San Diego State

Draft Redo
Round 1 (4): Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Round 4 (100): Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
Round 4 (125): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 6 (169): Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State
Round 7 (226): Peyton Hillis, FB, Arkansas

Philadelphia Eagles
Quick hit: Not a whole lot that I would have done the same here once you get beyond the great Trevor Laws pick.

Actual Draft
Round 2 (47): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 2 (49): DeSean Jackson, WR, California
Round 3 (80): Bryan Smith, LB, McNeese State
Round 4 (109): Mike McGlynn, G, Pittsburgh
Round 4 (117): Quintin Demps, S, UTEP
Round 4 (131): Jack Ikegwuonu, CB, Wisconsin
Round 6 (184): Michael Gibson, G, California
Round 6 (200): Joe Mays, LB, North Dakota State
Round 6 (203): Andrew Studebaker, DE, Wheaton
Round 7 (230): King Dunlap, T, Auburn

Draft Redo
Round 2 (47): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 2 (49): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (80): Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Round 4 (109): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 4 (117): Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
Round 4 (131): Jack Ikegwuonu, CB, Wisconsin
Round 6 (184): John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame
Round 6 (200): Joe Mays, LB, North Dakota State
Round 6 (203): Matt Sherry, TE, Villanova
Round 7 (230): Darrell Robertson, DE, Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh Steelers
Quick hit: With all of the top offensive linemen off the board, Pittsburgh definitely did the right thing in selecting Mendenhall, who should be one of the league's top running back within a few years.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (23): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 2 (53): Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Round 3 (88): Bruce Davis, OLB, UCLA
Round 4 (130): Tony Hills, OT, Texas
Round 5 (156): Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon
Round 6 (188): Mike Humphal, ILB, Iowa
Round 6 (194): Ryan Mundy, FS, West Virginia

Draft Redo
Round 1 (23): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Round 2 (53): Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
Round 3 (88): Bruce Davis, OLB, UCLA
Round 4 (130): Tony Hills, OT, Texas
Round 5 (156): Jonathan Goff, ILB, Vanderbilt
Round 6 (188): Donald Thomas, G, Connecticut
Round 6 (194): Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky

San Diego Chargers
Quick hit: The Chargers have no real holes. Only a couple of starting jobs will even be contested. Obviously that's because they've drafted so well in recent years. So there's no need to change any of their picks, right?

Actual Draft
Round 1 (27): Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
Round 3 (69): Jacob Hester, FB, LSU
Round 5 (166): Marcus Thomas, RB, UTEP
Round 6 (192): DeJuan Tribble, CB, Boston College
Round 7 (234): Corey Clark, OT, Texas A&M

Draft Redo
Round 1 (27): Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Round 3 (69): Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
Round 5 (166): Ahtyba Rubin, NT, Iowa State
Round 6 (192): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (234): Chris Brown, FB/TE, Tennessee

San Francisco 49ers
Quick hit: Balmer will help bolster the defensive line, but I can't get behind the other picks they made.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (29): Kentwan Balmer, DT/DE, North Carolina
Round 2 (39): Chilo Racal, G, USC
Round 3 (75): Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma
Round 4 (107): Cody Wallace, C, Texas A&M
Round 6 (174): Josh Morgan, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 7 (214): Larry Grant, LB, Ohio State

Draft Redo
Round 1 (29): Kentwan Balmer, DT/DE, North Carolina
Round 2 (39): Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State
Round 3 (75): Jeremy Zuttah, G/C, Rutgers
Round 4 (107): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 6 (174): Donald Thomas, G, Connecticut
Round 7 (214): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Seattle Seahawks
Quick hit: GM Tim Ruskell typically does a good job and seems to have done so again this year, though I'm much lower on Red Bryant than most others are.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (28): Lawrence Jackson, DE, Southern Cal
Round 2 (38): John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
Round 4 (121): Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M
Round 5 (163): Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
Round 6 (189): Tyler Schmitt, LS, San Diego State
Round 7 (233): Justin Forsett, RB, California
Round 7 (235): Brandon Coutu, K, Georgia

Draft Redo
Round 1 (28): Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
Round 2 (38): John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
Round 4 (121): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 5 (163): Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
Round 6 (189): Tyler Schmitt, LS, San Diego State
Round 7 (233): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (235): Eric Foster, DE, Rutgers

St. Louis Rams
Quick hit: Chris Long's my overall top player in the draft. And I think Greco could be a good pro with a chance to make it at tackle though most see him as a guard. Decent picks in every round, although I think selecting Avery in the second round was an awful move.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (2): Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Round 2 (33): Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
Round 3 (65): John Greco, OT, Toledo
Round 4 (101): Justin King, CB, Penn State
Round 4 (128): Keenan Burton, WR, Kentucky
Round 5 (157): Roy Schuening, OG, Oregon St.
Round 7 (228): Chris Chamberlain, DB, Tulsa
Round 7 (252): David Vobora, OLB, Idaho

Draft Redo
Round 1 (2): Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Round 2 (33): Curtis Lofton, MLB, Oklahoma
Round 3 (65): John Greco, OT, Toledo
Round 4 (101): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (128): Jonathan Wilhite, CB, Auburn
Round 5 (157): Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan State
Round 7 (228): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (252): David Roach, S, TCU

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quick hit: Although I'm not quite sure about taking a cover two corner in round one, Talib is a playmaker when he gets his hands on the ball, so I can get behind that. And I love the rest of the draft, though that won't keep me from making a few changes.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (20): Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
Round 2 (58): Dexter Jackson, WR, Appalachian State
Round 3 (83): Jeremy Zuttah, G, Rutgers
Round 4 (115): Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
Round 5 (160): Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
Round 5 (175): Geno Hayes, ILB, Florida State
Round 7 (238): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Draft Redo
Round 1 (20): Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
Round 2 (58): Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Round 3 (83): Jeremy Zuttah, G, Rutgers
Round 4 (115): Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
Round 5 (160): Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
Round 6 (175): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina
Round 7 (238): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas

Tennessee Titans
Quick hit: Tennessee selected a couple of my favorite prospects, namely Jason Jones and Lavelle Hawkins, but the first round is too high to draft a back like Chris Johnson.

Actual Draft
Round 1 (24): Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
Round 2 (54): Jason Jones, DT/DE, Eastern Michigan
Round 3 (85): Craig Stevens, TE, California
Round 4 (103): William Hayes, DE, Western Michigan
Round 4 (126): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (134): Stanford Keglar, OLB, Stanford
Round 7 (229): Cary Williams, CB, Washburn

Draft Redo
Round 1 (24): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Round 2 (54): Jason Jones, DT/DE, Eastern Michigan
Round 3 (85): Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
Round 4 (103): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 4 (126): Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Round 4 (134): Jonathan Goff, MLB, Vanderbilt
Round 7 (229): Cory Boyd, RB, South Carolina

Washington Redskins
Quick hit: When the consensus top receiver in the draft falls to the second round you have to take him. But when another top receiver is still available seventeen picks later that doesn't mean you have to take him, too.

Actual Draft
Round 2 (34): Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Round 2 (48): Fred Davis, TE, Southern Cal
Round 2 (51): Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Round 3 (96): Chad Rinehart, G, Northern Iowa
Round 4 (124): Justin Tryon, CB, Arizona State
Round 6 (168): Durant Brooks, P, Georgia Tech
Round 6 (180): Kareem Moore, S, Nicholls State
Round 6 (186): Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii
Round 7 (242): Rob Jackson, DE, Kansas State
Round 7 (249): Christopher Horton, S, UCLA

Draft Redo
Round 2 (34): Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Round 2 (48): Jason Jones, DE/DT, Eastern Michigan
Round 2 (51): Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
Round 3 (96): Oneil Cousins, OT/G, UTEP
Round 4 (124): Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
Round 6 (168): Durant Brooks, P, Georgia Tech
Round 6 (180): Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
Round 6 (186): Andre’ Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Round 7 (242): Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas
Round 7 (249): David Roach, S, TCU

In the Trenches: 2007 week one

Games Charted
Denver Broncos (15) at Buffalo Bills (14)
New England Patriots (38) at New York Jets (14)
New York Giants (35) at Dallas Cowboys (45)
Miami Dolphins (13) at Washington Redskins (16)
Baltimore Ravens (20) at Cincinnati Bengals (27)

Top Linemen (by position)


Left Tackle
First, a reminder that these ratings are based on NFL Replay and therefore they do not include the entire game as there are a handful of plays not shown. That said, Flozell Adams's 9.74 would be the highest single-game rating so far for a player with at least 20 plays. Patriots guard Stephen Neal posted a perfect 10 in the Super Bowl, but he was only in on 19 plays before leaving injured. The high rating seems fitting when you remember that it was Osi Umenyiora's"pair of zeros against the Cowboys" that was the impetus for Dr. Z taking a closer look at Adams's 2007 season and placing him on his All-Pro team.
  I have to mention Washington's Chris Samuels (9.2 BR). He was one of the most impressive linemen I saw and certainly the most enjoyable to watch. His 8.42 PBR is largely due to facing Miami's Jason Taylor, while his 9.68 RBR was the best of any lineman with more than twelve plays. He was a monster, an eraser on wheels.
  Baltimore's Jonathan Ogden (9.41) was playing great until he left the game injured. And Adam Terry (9.09) played well in his absence.
  Buffalo's Jason Peters (9.2) looked a little like a young Chris Samuels. Not as consistently good, but possessing that kind of power and mobility.
  And one of the pleasant surprises of week one: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (9.0). When Ferguson failed, he failed spectacularly so everyone could notice. But he played consistently well, and his run blocking was better than expected.
  Denver's Matt Lepsis (7.96) was the only left tackle to score below 8, though the Giants' David Diehl (8.04) came close.

Left Guard
Rich Seubert benefits from getting a good deal of double-team help from Shaun O'Hara. He also probably benefitted just a bit by this being the first game I charted before making a handful of tweaks to the rating system (it's not reverse-adjustable: I'd have to go back and re-chart the whole game). Both the Giants and Cowboys offensive lines played extremely well, with the exceptions of Diehl, who struggled with DeMarcus Ware, and Marc Columbo (8.46), who struggled some with Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck. Like all of the week's top linemen, Seubert posted a perfect Pass Blocker Rating (PBR), and the Giants ended up with 40 charted passing plays—nine more than any other team charted—boosting his overall rating.
  The lowest rated left guard was Stacy Andrews (8.1). He did great in pass protection (9.57) but looked plain awful in run blocking (6.32). No player was more frustrating to watch the Andrews, who sometimes looked at a loss out there. In case you're wondering about bias: this is a guy whose ability I was bullish on as a potential free agent. Could his poor performance be attributed to the Ravens' league-best rush defense? I wanted to think so.

Center
Tom Nalen looked like the perennial All-Pro he is. He really stood out for his smarts and relentlessness. Centers are frequently involved with double teams and so they definitely score higher than the other positions. Six of the ten starting centers rated higher than a 9, and the lowest rating was an otherwise respectable 8.6 posted by Baltimore's Mike Flynn. Nalen was one of three centers to post a perfect 10 in pass blocking (Buffalo's Melvin Fowler and New England's Dan Koppen were the others), but his 9.2 was fourth best in run blocking behind Dallas's Andre Gurode (9.44), Fowler (9.38), and Cincinnati's Eric Ghiaciuc (9.33).
  No center looked worse than Cincinnati reserve Alex Stepanovich (who was for a short time the top choice at center on my 2008 All Free Agent team). The entire Bengals line looked out of sync when he was in the game. After a few series, an injured Ghiaciuc returned and played well. (Don't worry: Stepanovich will play better in week two against the Browns.)

Right Guard
I wasn't sure whether to break the guard positions into left and right, or if I should just list the top two regardless of which side they play on. Didn't matter this week because Leonard Davis posted the second best score among guards, finishing just ahead of Baltimore's Jason Brown and Miami's Chris Liwienski (both at 9.4). Davis was one of five guards to post a perfect PBR, and his 8.89 RBR was fourth behind the Jets' Brandon Moore (10, but on only twelve run plays, while his PBR of 7.86 was the lowest of any guard), New England's Stephen Neal (8.97), and Liwienski (8.95).
  Liwienski (a left guard actually) was by far the least impressive lineman with a BR over 9. I doubt there'll be another week where he'll be showing up near the top at his position (then again, how many Dolphins games is NFL Replay likely to show?).
  On the other hand, in the two games of his I've charted, Stephen Neal has looked like the best mauler in the league. He doesn't have the mobility of heralded teammate Logan Mankins, but he's been more consistent in carrying out his assignments.
  The Giants' Chris Snee (9.11) was the third best right guard, while Washington's Randy Thomas (8.2) was surprisingly ineffective in the run game (7.1).
  The worst right guard was another one of my 2008 All Free Agent guys, Miami's Rex Hadnot (7.2). The fine reporters who cover the Dolphins liked to write about Hadnot's pulling ability. But if the Washington game was any indication, as often as not when Hadnot pulls he hits first the air and then the ground.

Right Tackle
Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped in when Jon Jansen went out with an injury. Jansen was on pace for a great game (9.3 on 15 plays) and Heyer came in and played up to Jansen's level. The
one thing to consider is that the Dolphin defense might have had something to do with Heyer's high score: Jason Taylor was primarily on the other side going against Washington's best lineman Chris Samuels.
  Just as he did in the Super Bowl, Kareem McKenzie (9.29) had a quietly great game, as did New England's Nick Kaczur (9.2).
  Only two right tackles had a BR of lower than 8. Cincinnati's Willie Anderson (7.0), who was limited to ten plays due injuries, and the Jets' Anthony Clement (7.5), whose pass blocking was fine (8.93) but whose running blocking was the worst yet seen: he was the only linemen with RBR under 5 (4.17).

One More Thing
Although five abbreviated games is too small of a sample size to make sweeping judgments, it looks like my Blocker Rating will correspond quite a bit to conventional wisdom. That's good. I'm not sure what I would make of ratings that contradicted all of what's supposed to be (though I certainly expect that one or two consensus opinions would be proved wrong). Pro Bowl-caliber players show up all over the top of the week 1 Blocker Ratings: Adams (whose false starts aren't counted), Nalen, Davis, Gurode, Ogden, Brown, Jansen, Neal, Samuels, Snee (that's half of the top 20 right there). But there's one guy who I've charted in both Super Bowl 42 and now in 2007 week 1 who's just not living up to his billing: Logan Mankins. I don't want to make a definitive statement at this time—I've only charted two of his games—but he certainly hasn't looked like the NFL's best guard. He does look amazing at times. He has actually "wowed" me with a couple of his pull blocks. But I haven't seen the consistency: not on the most important stage, in the Super Bowl against the Giants, and not in the opening game against the Jets, who fielded the league's worst defensive front last season.

2008 Free Agency: Beautiful Losers

Enough about the free agency "winners" so far. Let's get to the dirty work of discussing the losers. Everyone with an eye on the situation is hammering the Chicago Bears. Mike and Mike were going off on them this morning. John Clayton included Chicago among his losers. As did Andrew Kneeland over at bleacher report. Even draft guru Scott Wright (NFL Draft Countdown) has gotten in on the act by offering his services to the Bears on his blog. The Patriots were the other team getting universally panned, though re-signing Moss has staved off some of the criticism. So will those two teams find a place in my bottom five? The suspense is poking you in the back I'm sure.

5. Atlanta Falcons
It's not like the Falcons have been awful. Resigning Chris Redman was a smart move. Erik Coleman can be the starting free safety at a decent price. Tight end Ben Hartsock is a good blocker and the kind of low-level signing that has analysts heaping praise on Bill Parcells (and not Jeff Ireland?) in Miami. But you have to start rebuilding a team from the lines back, and Atlanta needs too much help on both the offensive and defensive lines to rely solely on the draft. Not only do they need to add starters at offensive and defensive tackle, but they could use an upgrade at guard and some depth at defensive end. But the thing that puts them on this list is giving all that money to Micheal Turner. He didn't look as good in 2007 as he did in previous seasons and I don't expect him to do much more for the Falcons than LaMont Jordan did for the Raiders. They could have gotten a cheaper option in free agency to share carries with Jerious Norwood, and they could have drafted an underrated mid-to-late-round prospect like Cory Boyd or Thomas Brown.

4. Oakland Raiders
Hey, Tommy Kelly was on my All Free Agent team, but that doesn't mean I would have re-signed him to a seven-year, $50 million contract with $18.125 million guaranteed. As I wrote in January: “. . . with the right kind of contract he'll be a great addition for a team as either a 3-technique DT in a four-man line or as an end in a 3-4 scheme” The key phrase there is “with the right kind of contract.” Maybe I wasn't specific enough, but Oakland's deal? That doesn't qualify. And, look, another one of my All Free Agent teamers, Gibril Wilson found his way to Oakland, too. Six years, $39 million, $16 million guaranteed. A bargain! Al Davis was once a great football mind, but now: sharp as a soda. No, but seriously, the one good thing Raiders fans can take away from this is that both signings are of capable players, even if the prices paid were a bit steep.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
As I noted last night, John Clayton has the Jaguars as a winner (as does Kneeland over at bleacher report for that matter), but all the Jags have done is a whole lot of nothing. The only positive I can add to what I wrote last night is that the Marcus Stroud trade garnered them a couple of extra picks (a third and a fifth) in the upcoming draft.

2. New York Jets
I really liked the Jets drafts the past couple of years, but their other off-season moves aren't looking too good. They should have treated Pete Kendall better last year, as he was the engine that made the rest of that line work so well in 2006. Making Alan Faneca the highest paid lineman in football would have been a good move two or three years ago, but he's coming off his worst season in a long time. He's overrated right now, and linemen don't typically get better as they hit their mid thirties. Speaking of which, Damien Woody will turn 31 in November, and though he finished last season with four strong games at right tackle, he was largely a bust in Detroit after signing his last lucrative free agent contract. No way I give him $5 million per year for five years with $11 million guaranteed. Not quite as bad is the Calvin Pace signing. He's another one of my All Free Agent guys (these teams are making me hate myself!). But "value" was a big part of the considerations for those guys, and no way did I see Pace getting a $42-million, six-year deal with $22 million guaranteed. He has basically had one good season. The fact that it's the Jets signing Pace makes it impossible not to compare it to their re-signing of Bryan Thomas last year after he finally posted a good season. The result, Thomas was right back to suckitude in 2007. On the plus side, the Jets did well in acquiring Kris Jenkins who will help improve a defensive line that was the worst in the league against the run. And they also picked up decent value for Jonathan Vilma (they could get as much as a second-round pick in 2009 depending on how Vilma plays and if he extends his contract with the Saints).

1. San Francisco 49ers
To me it's a bigger free agency sin to make a lot of noise and accomplish little to nothing than to stand pat and possibly miss out on an opportunity or two. Isaac Bruce for two years and $6 million ain't so bad. With Larry Allen retiring that offense can use a little veteran leadership and, of course, he knows the Mike Martz offense. And linebacker Dontarrious Thomas is a nice mid-level signing that could fill a hole, but if it doesn't work out won't cost them much. The 49ers go south, though, with the DeShaun Foster signing. It's a small contract that isn't going to hamper the 49ers even if they cut him before the season. But my opinion of Foster's game is so low that just bringing him in like this is a waste of resources. Justin Smith has never had a double-digit sack year; he's coming off his worst season by far; and I'm not sure he's the right fit for the 49ers defensive scheme. No way do I give him $45 million over six years with $20 million guaranteed. As much as I dislike the Smith deal, I guess it's the worthless signings—like kick returner Allen Rossum and backup quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan—that put the 49ers over the top, or rather, push them to the very bottom.

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OK, so what about the Patriots? As long as the Pats have Tom Brady and they can put him on the field with guys like Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, and Laurence Maroney. They'll be just fine. 2006 first-round wide receiver Chad Jackson is waiting for his chance to contribute and should be able to have an impact. But if he can't cut it, the recently re-signed Kelley Washington could help out. The defense is going to take more work to keep together, but last year's first round pick Brandon Merriweather should be ready to help out the secondary, and Bill Belichick has a way of recycling linebackers. Plus, the Pats have that top-ten draft pick via the 49ers, which they should be able to turn into a defensive starter.

And about those Bears? I'll get to them in the morning.

Super Bowl 42: Of the MVP and Blocker Ratings

When a quarterback engineers a dramatic Super Bowl-winning drive there's a pretty good chance he'll be the game's MVP. Eli Manning's 55% completion percentage is nothing to get excited about, but his 7.5 yards per attempt is better than average. He accounted for two touchdowns against only one interception, which wasn't even his fault (although he did throw at least a couple of other passes that could have been intercepted and would have been his fault).
 But Manning wouldn't have gotten my MVP vote if I had one. The difference in the game wasn't the Giants offense which scored 17 points, about what many expected they would, but the defense that held the Patriots offense, in perfect conditions, to only 14 points, about twenty fewer than many expected.
 The biggest reason for the Giants defensive success was the pressure they put on Tom Brady. New York's five sacks came from four different players and there were others, from Osi Umeniora to Aaron Ross, involved in the hurries and hits. Justin Tuck led the way with his two sacks and a forced fumble. He also contributed five solo tackles and an assist. While that might not be a huge game exactly, it was the defense's stand out performance, and I would have voted for Tuck as a way to recognize what the Giant defense accomplished.
 The Giants seemed to dominate the Pats offensive line and it got me thinking about a blocker rating system I kicked around in my head for a few months during the season. I never got around to field testing that idea, but now, with a Super Bowl that in many ways came down to line play, I've set down some parameters and charted my first game using my Simple Blocker Rating system (SBR).
 I'm sure there are others, but off the top of my head the only offensive line ratings (player-specific, not as a unit like Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards) I can think of that fans have at least some access to are: Dr. Z's mysterious method which he uses in determining his All-Pro team each year; Yakuza Rich's statistical ranking based on yardage; the percentage-based “grading out” popular with college sites.
 SBR is based on success and not excellence. A cut block on the backside of a run that may or may not have been enough if the run had broken differently is weighted the same as a block by a pulling guard that pancakes his man and opens a hole for the running back. This is one of the things that makes this rating “simple.” But I have chosen to keep it this way in order to limit the value judgments needed on my part. There are two main benefits for this: first, it makes the rating more objective by lessening the need to interpret responsibility or pinpoint the exact effectiveness of a block; second, it cuts down the time required to chart a game, which means this is more likely something I can continue to do.
 Again, SBR doesn't consider technique, only success. In determining success it errs on the side of giving credit to the blocker. As such SBR is almost entirely a descriptive stat; it's probably limited in its ability to predict future results. Just as a quarterback's passing stats are affected by the quality of his receivers, his blockers, and even the threat posed by his running back, a lineman's blocker rating will be affected by things outside of his control such as the kinds of plays called (i.e, a lineman will rate better if his team calls a lot of wide receiver screens and quick slants) and the quality of the defender he's working against,
 Since this is the first and only game I've charted using SBR there's no context for the numbers. I expect that over the course of a season certain positions, such as left tackle, would have lower numbers since they're often going up against the best pass rushers and are less likely than their linemates to be part of a double team.
 Finally, before presenting the table, a few notes and observations. 10 is a perfect score. I charted tight ends and fullbacks but not running backs or wide receivers. All-Pro guard Logan Mankins struggled as much with Tuck, et al., as it seemed he did. Pats backup guard Russ Hochstein wasn't quite as bad as I thought while watching the game, but he was a huge drop off from Stephen Neal who was pitching a shutout. New York's Shaun O'Hara had been perfect in pass blocking before struggling a bit on the last drive. Similarly David Diehl and Rich Seubert struggled in pass protection late in the game, but played solidly prior to that. The Giants' tight ends were much better, with Kyle Brady in particular hurting the Pats in the running game. As might be expected, the Pats kept Ben Watson in to pass protect much more later in the game. NY Fullback Madison Hedgecock was less effective than I would have guessed.

Name	Team	Pos	SBR	Run	Pass	Plays
David Diehl	NYG	LT	8.19	7.82	8.42	61
Matt Light	NE	LT	8.55	6.66	9.07	69
Rich Seubert	NYG	LG	8.85	8.69	8.94	61
Logan Mankins	NE	LG	8.55	8.66	8.51	69
Shaun O'Hara	NYG	C	8.85	8.26	9.21	61
Dan Koppen	NE	C	9.27	8.66	9.44	69
Chris Snee	NYG	RG	9.18	9.13	9.21	61
Stephen Neal	NE	RG	10.00	10.00	10.00	19
Russ Hochstein	NE	RG	8.80	10.00	8.60	50
Kareem McKenzie	NYG	RT	9.50	9.13	9.73	61
Nick Kaczur	NE	RT	8.98	9.33	8.88	69
Kevin Boss	NYG	TE	9.62	9.50	10.00	27
Ben Watson	NE	TE	8.33	6.66	10.00	24
Michael Matthews	NYG	TE	9.16	9.09	10.00	13
Kyle Brady	NE	TE	6.19	5.33	8.33	21
Mike Vrabel	NE	TE	10.00	10.00	----	3
Madison Hedgecock	NYG	FB	7.69	7.22	10.00	13
Heath Evans	NE	FB	5.00	5.00	----	4